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David Brown

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  • Positive News And Stocks At Bargain Prices [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. You might consider reading the article two weeks ago with our quantitative insights on current valuation. We still feel there are a sufficient number of Garp stocks available using forward PE as our chief measurement tool
    Apr 15 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Conundrum [View article]
    Hindsight is always quite good. Thanks.
    Apr 8 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Conundrum [View article]
    Thanks for comment. In addition to my comment in the next question regarding NXPI , you might note that VLO has approx. $/share in operating cash flow and $6/share in FCF. Your points on AAL are well taken and reflect a political view that is shared by many.
    Apr 8 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Conundrum [View article]
    Thanks for your comment:
    If you look at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo Finance which is not our data source you will see the same 41x for trailing 12 months Eps. Where did they get that?
    If you look at the income statement which you can reach through the "key Statistics "page", you will note that eainings for 2013 were reported on that statement as $348M which is less than $1.50 or about 40PE. The difference is that the income statement is likely based on a GAAP basis but the market tends to follow non-GAAP for companies that properly footnote the difference which in this case is the $3.29 that you quote. So a Non-GAAP PE of about 17 or 18X.

    Moon Kil Woong might also note on the Key Stat page their operating cash flow for ttm was about $3.50 /shr and freecash flow over $2/share for NXPi with cash of nearly $700M.
    Apr 8 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are Valuations Now? [View article]
    The three stocks are in the top 100 or so Garp stocks and represent a diversity of sectors and industries. We stand on our record. Thanks for your view.
    Apr 1 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Slow But Likely Positive Week Ahead [View article]
    There is clearly merit in acknowledging the issue(s). However, when one considers the significant number of hedge funds that have invested AFTER the MW allegations, grabbing up the NQ shares it is difficult to even pass on the MW allegations since facts are far from clear. If one has concern about the MW allegations it seems to at least make NQ a huge option opportunity. Assuming you can trade enough options at reasonable spreads, it is a near perfect call/put strategy. Theoretically you would win big either way. It is either worth far more than it is selling at or it is worth much less than it is selling it at. Enough material here to write a lengthy paper.
    Feb 10 11:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Week For The Quarter [View article]
    Thanks for the comment.
    Jan 29 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 2014 Resume Last Year's Growth? [View article]
    Thanks for the question. Yes, concern over volatile crack spreads. Fully integrated refiners like MPC doing a bit better but will stay volatile until the spread stabilizes.
    Jan 16 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caution Or End Of Year Window Dressing? [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I agree that the divergence in investor attitude is likely due to different sets of investors. In the aggregate they just appear to be torn by different objectives.
    Dec 10 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell-Offs And VIX's Rise Deserve Caution [View article]
    in the third line from the bottom of my response I omitted "not".....currently does NOT find fault with cash flow to net income or inventory issues.

    Sorry, anunfortunate word omitted.
    Dec 3 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell-Offs And VIX's Rise Deserve Caution [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. Your concern about concentration in China is noted. However as to overvaluation, we do not think a forward P?E of 17 or so is high for companies which earned 25% year growth over past 5 and is generally expected to continue that growth. My own concern is the "direct selling model which has been abused by some firms in the past. We are aware of past problems with Nu Skin but the company seemingly reborn in 2008 has generated a much more scientific feel and lessened the number of marketing problems. China could be a problem but NUS seems to be is using predominately traditional marketing channels in China as we understand the situation. The bottom line is that we do see risk as we do in most firms but the accounting which had been criticized by our forensic accounting team (Gradient) currently does find fault with cash flow to net income or inventory issues and the potential reward seems to exceed the risk. But of course it is another buyer beware story.
    Dec 3 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell-Offs And VIX's Rise Deserve Caution [View article]
    We agree. Thanks.
    Dec 3 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Leadership? [View article]
    I have been publicly writing material for about 25 years and I have never been referred to as a "liberal" writer. I wasn't born with a "C" or an "L" attached to my forehead or my brain.

    I try to solve problems as any scientist would do. Gather the facts, try to resolve the conflicting ideas and develop a solution that will work more often than it doesn't work. In this publication my job is to try to determine what the market wants and how to profit from that information. The market obviously wants a government that is open and providing services best provided by a government. No more, no less.

    Of course that requires agreement among the government and the governed. Lack thereof results in chaos. We have been here many times before. We settled our issues and moved ahead.

    Right now that does not seem to be happening.
    Oct 9 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Stocks And A Controversial 4th For This Market [View article]
    By the way, I like ACET. Nice steady growth at a reasonable price. Sorry it took me so long to reply.
    Sep 24 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trying To Ignore Congressional Bickering [View article]
    Regardless of what we all think today's congress needs to do today's work to keep the doors open. I would like to see more work and less rhetoric. And certainly less petty quarreling.

    Thanks for your comments
    Sep 24 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment