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David Brown

 
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  • Market Valuation Just Above Average [View article]
    I think if you contrast forward P/E to anticipated EPS growth you will find a significant correlation with future performance.

    Thanks
    Feb 6 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selecting Stocks From The Bottom Of The Cliff [View article]
    Nothing magical. As a diversion from slow markets during the holiday season we build a one year hold of 13 equities into a portfolio that we call the Baker's Dozen. We make sure it is diversified and reasonably in tune with the year ahead as we it.

    It has done quite well over the past 5 years since we began so look forward to the exercise. This past year the portfolio was up about 45% with dividends included. It has been covered the past few years by the Wall Street Journal. Bloombergs Pimm Fox and others.

    http://bit.ly/UZT46z provides an interesting running performance of 20 or so top firms to compare their various look ahead portfolios issued this time of year. Sort of a competition for us.

    The rest of the year, we are busy building indices that will underly ETF's, UIT's and other structured products that we publish for our clients.

    Thanks for your question.
    Jan 12 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Performance Review: 2012 'Smart Money' Portfolios [View article]
    We should add that we found it quite unusual that no other Investment Banker selected even one of our selections in 2012 even though all were very large companies. I think only two were down for for the year and the worst was a little over 2% down. I don't have the final list in front of me with the scores so not positive of that.

    Barron's did select Seagate as you can see above. Good that 4 of the firms did better than the major indices!

    Thanks to Dark-Liquidity for your effort in publishing the results all year.
    Jan 2 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Performance Review: 2012 'Smart Money' Portfolios [View article]
    Thanks for nice comments on Sabrient Systems. The good news is that Sabrient was approached by a major fund sponsor to form a Unit Investment Trust from this years Baker's Dozen. It should be released very soon. At that time the list will be public information. Unfortunately KKR cannot appear in a Unit Investment Trust due to being a partnership. A UIT requires corporations. However KKR was rated quite high.
    Jan 2 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need More Days Like Today [View article]
    Thanks for the overview. Especially for those who couldn't tune in.
    Dec 19 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need More Days Like Today [View article]
    Thanks for reading. Clue us in.....I am sutdying some of the European results this minute.

    david
    Dec 18 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Historical Tax Rates Provide Clarity [View article]
    Thank you for these excellent points. Great, we at least have a dialog going on how we got ourselves into the mess. How about some proposed steps in a better direction?
    Dec 11 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Historical Tax Rates Provide Clarity [View article]
    He does....as I noted , my few quotes didn't due justice to his effort to portray the history of such tax manipulations
    Dec 11 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shame On Washington! [View article]
    At least we are thinking. But there must be specific plans to take us from chaos to the continued rebuilding of our economy. There is no simple "wave of hand solution". We must find a middle of the road solution. We must reduce spending. We must tax more fairly. Anyone who has ever been in government or observed it carefully knows that there are immense boondoggle spending programs. There are gross inefficiencies. And the tax program is filled with loopholes and too little tax on the very wealthy. Both parties are too blame for their weak rhetoric and lack of specificity. The clock is ticking. No serious economist really thinks we can follow this fiscal cliff with its extreme mandates without resuming the recession which will be much more painful than 2008.
    Dec 4 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • From Rush To Risk To Worry [View article]
    I agree with your points. Nonetheless it is an interesting value assuming the stock stabilizes which it is showing some signs that it is. The point of action to buy or wait is a personal decision that each investor must make based on their tolerance for risk.
    Nov 28 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Devil You Know [View article]
    Certainly would be novel but much more fair.....So as you say Bernie Sanders might be on of the few to dare...:)
    Nov 13 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Certainty Amid Uncertainty [View article]
    I try not take wild guesses and I sure don't have an educated guess. This morning makes whoever it was look kind of silly. Right?

    Your educated guess?

    david
    Oct 23 10:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caution Is The Word Of The Week [View article]
    I don't understand. The Wall Street Journal says what is a BUY. LEN? Their performance is outstanding but the valuation is very, very high. Next years earnings valued at about 25x, that is triple the average valuation of stocks like STX, WNR, etc. Good stocks can have very high prices. Why didn't LEN go up big on yesterdays huge earnings beat?
    Sep 25 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3, ECB Or Bust [View article]
    Thanks for the comment but clearly the private sector has not learned much since 2008. The Europe crisis, JPM's Whale trade, the LIBOR issue, Knight Trading, MSF, etc all show that self regulations has NOT evolved from 2008. Nothing comparable to the controls implemented after 1987. The shock of 1987 brought sweeping reform both from the regulatory side but from much more effective self regulation. Where has that common sense gone in the past 25 years?
    Aug 3 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Market Wants: Continue The Consistency [View article]
    I don't think we are looking at this economic landscape the same way. My point the past few issues have been that virtually all countries were facing difficulties or even a serious crisis. The markets had sold-off in more than an appropriate manner. In the last two weeks issues which Seeking Alpha editors chose not to publish, I tried to clarify how domestic valuations had fallen nearly to March 2009 levels (the lowest in recent years). Our conclusion was there were few if any serious options to equities. Fixed income risk/reward is very poor, real estate low but rebounding very slowly and precious metals near historic highs. So there was a need for solutions to the difficulties or crises .

    Voila, we got the European summit solution which of course must still play out and equities would move closer to moderate levels. That is what is happening. Of course we need more. We need our congress to become less polarized. We need leadership from our President or our Fed or our congress. The midesast needs many resolutions. China growth slowing needs to turn around but if or as soltions develop, equities will return to at least average levels. Hopefully this make sense.

    You can read missing issues free at Sabrient .com, "What the Market Wants".
    Jul 3 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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