GTA titles appears multiple times on this list (4 games taking 16, 23, 31, 48), and other than Super Mario and Pokemon I dare say the GTA series probably is the marquee series for video games in recent history along side the Call of Duty series (3 games taking 30, 32, 33, 35, 39, 49). Comparing GTA to anything else outside of COD simply wouldn't do it justice.
Then take a look at the installed base of Xbox 360s from Q4 2009 (around 29 mil units) to today (around 76 million units, supposedly.) If GTA was able to sell to around 50% of the installed base then, I don't foresee selling 18 million copies to <25% of the installed base this year is too much a challenge.
Onto Vivendi-Activision, I do not see that situation resolving itself anytime soon. We are on the cusp of a new hardware cycle and Vivendi has sat itself out for long enough. Mid year 2012, talks to sell ATVI broke down due to the offers all not being high enough. Fortunes for the industry are starting to turn with excitement of the new hardware releases generating interest, along with the share prices of all the players in the sector.
Unless ATVI wishes to buy itself back at an even higher premium I can't see why Vivendi would accept. Also, its an $10+ billion deal at current prices. It's not something that either ATVI or Vivendi can ink easily. Vivendi is most likely stuck with ATVI, and they might as well considering we are coming out of a trough.
ATVI is the most likely acquirer in my opinion of TTWO. Even at current valuations they can still get a deal done for less than what ATVI holds in cash.
As for other acquirers, i am thinking outside the video game industry. Sure, MSFT can buy TTWO just to get the GTA exclusive (and they have showered them with money in the past for deals like that), and they can afford it. But MSFT could have moved in years ago if they wanted to, and I have a feeling they have bigger fish to fry. Sony is in no position to really make a move due to their troubles with their core divisions either.
Looking at the insider transactions recently, I would actually be putting my bet on either privatization or LBO by a hedge fund. The valuations aren't that demanding and given the new hardware cycle, wouldn't it make a lot of sense to re-IPO at a later point when the sentiment improves?
As for Rockstar Games, I am not enough of an insider to know what really goes on inside the studio. But I am sure given the creative successes that team is known to generate, unless SZ has some insanely good programming skills at his hands, the football team might have just taken over the principle's office. But that's just my 2 cents.
Longwei Petroleum: The Most Brazen China-Based U.S. Listed RTO To Date [View article]
Very. I was thinking of going in with 10k shares just as a "all bets on red" sorta thing. Toups had a very questionable history with a few delisted Chinese firms was why I had little conviction other than playing the PR rebound.
But after AIG, you learn to tame your itchy trigger fingers. lol
Another Downgrade For Skullcandy And Another Oversized Response [View article]
I bought in at 8.4 also but unloaded *everything* when it failed to break above the moving averages at around 8.2. Tried this twice but the symbol keeps failing to break thru and I took small losses each time.
Is the stock undervalued? Maybe, I am inclining to say it's "cheap". But there's no conviction (me included) to play this name beyond the quick trades. I have a high risk appetite on the limited amount of money I had put into SKUL and I am fine with losses here. I knew what I was in for. It was a technical trade, nothing else mattered. It works, or it doesn't.
However, it seems like a lot of the chatter was to wait for the short squeeze. Buy and hold. Unless there's some sort of fundamental improvement in the business model the chance of that happening is low. Investors need to realize that turnarounds aren't just caused by a positive Seeking Alpha article.
There needs to be catalysts where you have strong convictions in to justify a thesis, especially in the face of strong established downward trends. I don't see any of that here. Management can say anything they want but until you execute some results all that is is just talk and all you are doing is making a gamble. SKUL's management is one that I view has low to no creditability, shown thru insider trading activity and their shareholder friendliness (or lack thereof). I dropped the ticker from my watchlist as a result.
Is SKUL back on my watchlist? Sure. Again, as a technical trade. But will I "invest" in it?
Nope. Never at least according to what I am currently looking at.
Longwei Petroleum: The Most Brazen China-Based U.S. Listed RTO To Date [View article]
I almost bought into this thing a month ago. Even though it ran up 20% or so afterwards I didn't feel like I missed out. The threat of something like this is always there with emerging market tickers.
And this story just shows you cannot trust what you read blindly. I bought AIG in 2007 thinking it was a smart investment. When management deceive nothing matters.
Knowing how weak corporate governance controls are in mainland China, this comes as no surprise. Job well done sir on the expose.
Take-Two Interactive: A Chance To Play The Coming Consolidation Of The Video Games Industry? [View article]
They have released Max Payne 3, Borderlands 2, and NBA Live 2k13 in 2012 to prop their numbers up this year.
These 3 titles are part of the broad roster of titles Take Two has in their armory that illustrates their current content strategy on focusing on building content franchises, rather than 1 hit wonders:
With Max Payne 3 and Borderlands 2, these are 2 titles that are sequels to titles released several years ago that have developed a loyal following. They pick 2-3 of these titles a year to advance, similar to movie sequels to develop new plots/chapters/storylines in the story, and also updating the franchise technologically and content wise to make sure it stays relevant.
NBA Live 2k13 is part of their sports games strategy that keeps churning out updates annually to reflect changes in the real life sporting space. While I am not particularly keen on the annuity release concept, I do think with sports they can get away with the interest corrosion that you might experience with a drama/story driven franchise.
Going forward, Take Two's creative team has shown themselves to be very talented content producers if you look at the reviews of their key pipelines games in the last year or two, most games often score review scores in the 80%+ regions. There are numerous titles in their roster that are due for a new renditions.
The company was able to generate a profit due to these mini-hits. In 2008, if you ask anyone about Take Two, they will respond Grand Theft Auto, with just 1 or 2 titles in the pipeline that gets people talking.
Today, I could name 8 franchises that gets the gaming media excited and jumping around in anticipation for a new release. I believe this number will continue to grow with time, the team at TTWO is capable.
As long as they have what it takes to create relevance in the marketplace, with new hardware just on the horizon, the firm should be able to capitalize on the goodwill and content they are seeding today. The next hardware cycle I believe will renew consumer interest by offering new features and tech upgrades, and with the right content mix, they could very well capitalize on that recovery.
Take-Two Interactive: A Chance To Play The Coming Consolidation Of The Video Games Industry? [View article]
Take a look at the top 50 of this list: http://bit.ly/XsopMD
GTA titles appears multiple times on this list (4 games taking 16, 23, 31, 48), and other than Super Mario and Pokemon I dare say the GTA series probably is the marquee series for video games in recent history along side the Call of Duty series (3 games taking 30, 32, 33, 35, 39, 49). Comparing GTA to anything else outside of COD simply wouldn't do it justice.
Then take a look at the installed base of Xbox 360s from Q4 2009 (around 29 mil units) to today (around 76 million units, supposedly.) If GTA was able to sell to around 50% of the installed base then, I don't foresee selling 18 million copies to <25% of the installed base this year is too much a challenge.
Onto Vivendi-Activision, I do not see that situation resolving itself anytime soon. We are on the cusp of a new hardware cycle and Vivendi has sat itself out for long enough. Mid year 2012, talks to sell ATVI broke down due to the offers all not being high enough. Fortunes for the industry are starting to turn with excitement of the new hardware releases generating interest, along with the share prices of all the players in the sector.
Unless ATVI wishes to buy itself back at an even higher premium I can't see why Vivendi would accept. Also, its an $10+ billion deal at current prices. It's not something that either ATVI or Vivendi can ink easily. Vivendi is most likely stuck with ATVI, and they might as well considering we are coming out of a trough.
ATVI is the most likely acquirer in my opinion of TTWO. Even at current valuations they can still get a deal done for less than what ATVI holds in cash.
As for other acquirers, i am thinking outside the video game industry. Sure, MSFT can buy TTWO just to get the GTA exclusive (and they have showered them with money in the past for deals like that), and they can afford it. But MSFT could have moved in years ago if they wanted to, and I have a feeling they have bigger fish to fry. Sony is in no position to really make a move due to their troubles with their core divisions either.
Looking at the insider transactions recently, I would actually be putting my bet on either privatization or LBO by a hedge fund. The valuations aren't that demanding and given the new hardware cycle, wouldn't it make a lot of sense to re-IPO at a later point when the sentiment improves?
As for Rockstar Games, I am not enough of an insider to know what really goes on inside the studio. But I am sure given the creative successes that team is known to generate, unless SZ has some insanely good programming skills at his hands, the football team might have just taken over the principle's office. But that's just my 2 cents.
Chris Katje's Annual Top Ten Stock Picks For 2013 Part II [View article]
What's your take on basic materials? I don't see any names in that space in your picks. Thoughts on Occidental Petro (OXY)?
Longwei Petroleum: The Most Brazen China-Based U.S. Listed RTO To Date [View article]
But after AIG, you learn to tame your itchy trigger fingers. lol
Another Downgrade For Skullcandy And Another Oversized Response [View article]
Is the stock undervalued? Maybe, I am inclining to say it's "cheap". But there's no conviction (me included) to play this name beyond the quick trades. I have a high risk appetite on the limited amount of money I had put into SKUL and I am fine with losses here. I knew what I was in for. It was a technical trade, nothing else mattered. It works, or it doesn't.
However, it seems like a lot of the chatter was to wait for the short squeeze. Buy and hold. Unless there's some sort of fundamental improvement in the business model the chance of that happening is low. Investors need to realize that turnarounds aren't just caused by a positive Seeking Alpha article.
There needs to be catalysts where you have strong convictions in to justify a thesis, especially in the face of strong established downward trends. I don't see any of that here. Management can say anything they want but until you execute some results all that is is just talk and all you are doing is making a gamble. SKUL's management is one that I view has low to no creditability, shown thru insider trading activity and their shareholder friendliness (or lack thereof). I dropped the ticker from my watchlist as a result.
Is SKUL back on my watchlist? Sure. Again, as a technical trade. But will I "invest" in it?
Nope. Never at least according to what I am currently looking at.
Longwei Petroleum: The Most Brazen China-Based U.S. Listed RTO To Date [View article]
And this story just shows you cannot trust what you read blindly. I bought AIG in 2007 thinking it was a smart investment. When management deceive nothing matters.
Knowing how weak corporate governance controls are in mainland China, this comes as no surprise. Job well done sir on the expose.
Take-Two Interactive: A Chance To Play The Coming Consolidation Of The Video Games Industry? [View article]
These 3 titles are part of the broad roster of titles Take Two has in their armory that illustrates their current content strategy on focusing on building content franchises, rather than 1 hit wonders:
With Max Payne 3 and Borderlands 2, these are 2 titles that are sequels to titles released several years ago that have developed a loyal following. They pick 2-3 of these titles a year to advance, similar to movie sequels to develop new plots/chapters/storylines in the story, and also updating the franchise technologically and content wise to make sure it stays relevant.
NBA Live 2k13 is part of their sports games strategy that keeps churning out updates annually to reflect changes in the real life sporting space. While I am not particularly keen on the annuity release concept, I do think with sports they can get away with the interest corrosion that you might experience with a drama/story driven franchise.
Going forward, Take Two's creative team has shown themselves to be very talented content producers if you look at the reviews of their key pipelines games in the last year or two, most games often score review scores in the 80%+ regions. There are numerous titles in their roster that are due for a new renditions.
The company was able to generate a profit due to these mini-hits. In 2008, if you ask anyone about Take Two, they will respond Grand Theft Auto, with just 1 or 2 titles in the pipeline that gets people talking.
Today, I could name 8 franchises that gets the gaming media excited and jumping around in anticipation for a new release. I believe this number will continue to grow with time, the team at TTWO is capable.
As long as they have what it takes to create relevance in the marketplace, with new hardware just on the horizon, the firm should be able to capitalize on the goodwill and content they are seeding today. The next hardware cycle I believe will renew consumer interest by offering new features and tech upgrades, and with the right content mix, they could very well capitalize on that recovery.