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David Dyer  

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  • Salesforce Earnings Preview: 7th Consecutive GAAP Loss Expected [View article]
    CEO Benioff is a great salesman, visionary, and promoter. In another life he may have been an evangelist or started his own religion. Very charismatic. I sometimes refer to his CloudForce meetings and other presentations as "tent revivals".

    The CRM operations are exceptional. No complaints there. I just have this urge, if I was an outside shareholder, to say, "Show Me The Money!".
    Feb 26, 2013. 05:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Salesforce GAAP Vs. Non-GAAP Divergence? [View article]
    CEO Benioff et al. are smart, he's a billionaire from this. He did in fact have a great vision. It's the the continued pilfering while pumping the stock that is disingenuous, imho.
    Feb 25, 2013. 10:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Earnings: Life Is Good [View article]
    Agreed, it is a conservative and patient call. I also agree about and like your effort to ride the huge mobile growth, vertically or horizontally. It is an exciting time at the technology leading edge. This will attract more competitors and the margins will drop as more players rush in. I'm not a fast trader, more like a slow swing trader in this set up.
    Feb 5, 2013. 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Earnings Preview: 7th Consecutive GAAP Loss Expected [View article]
    From the technical analysis side, volatility is where the action is at for fast traders and algorithms. I think the high frequency trading software, flash trading, piles in on stocks like CRM. Just my opinion.
    Feb 27, 2013. 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Earnings Preview: 7th Consecutive GAAP Loss Expected [View article]
    Current assets were typical at 10-31-12. "Nothing unusual noted", as auditors say. Cash, marketable securities, and account receivable were about $1.0 billion of the $1.2 billion in current assets.
    Feb 27, 2013. 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Earnings Preview: 7th Consecutive GAAP Loss Expected [View article]
    Agree and watched the same thing you did over the years. In past years, I played the technical analysis side as a long.

    Fundamentals will ultimately prevail, though stocks seem to defy this (and therefore gravity) for longer than seemingly they should.

    Benjamin Graham said, "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine."

    Sometimes that "short run" is longer than we think it should be.
    Feb 26, 2013. 11:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Salesforce GAAP Vs. Non-GAAP Divergence? [View article]
    Although the external auditors should be looking at the reasonableness of the balances in Goodwill for impairment, apparently it can take a long time to charge-off. HP didn't charge-off $1.2 billion of Compaq goodwill until several years later, July 2012.

    I noted some about CRM liquidity and cash flow in the next article, the earnings preview, in the comments section here: http://seekingalpha.co...

    I haven't done a cash flow projection or such formality to know when CRM could possibly run out of cash or even if they would. They do generate cash as noted at the link above.

    Interesting comment about the Sarbanes-Oxley. Never occurred to me about that. Are you an auditor? lol

    Provide the the link to the graph if you can, or otherwise contact me via message to make a connection.

    Thanks for your input.
    Feb 26, 2013. 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Earnings Preview: 7th Consecutive GAAP Loss Expected [View article]
    Very astute, I almost said "still liquid" but decided I had said enough.

    They had $600M in cash and marketable securities at 10-31-12. Another $800M was in noncurrent marketable securities.

    Current assets / Total assets had dropped to 27%, a multi-quarter low, at 10-31-12, from 42% the prior quarter. The 9-quarter average is 36%.

    GAAP cash flow from operations was $0.74 this past quarter. The 20-quarter average is $0.78.

    We'll see if reporting has changed any this week.
    Feb 26, 2013. 05:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Salesforce GAAP Vs. Non-GAAP Divergence? [View article]
    Thanks for your input.

    The amortization of intangibles increased Non-GAAP EPS an average of +$0.13 for the most recent 7 quarters, compared to +$0.49 for stock based expenses, i.e. insider stock incentives. It's a common reconciling item with tech companies and didn't appear to be the problem of driving GAAP down to a loss per share.

    You would have to appraise / value the goodwill, which is detailed in the SEC Form 10-Q financial statement schedules, to determine whether there is an unrealized gain or loss from acquisitions (goodwill) to-date. Then determine the result per share per quarter. Lot of assumptions to arrive at revised EPS and determine reasonableness of amortization of intangibles. That's another reason why I spotted management the item.

    What do you think of open cloud (RAX, AMZN, HP) versus closed cloud (CRM, et al.) prospects?
    Feb 26, 2013. 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Salesforce GAAP Vs. Non-GAAP Divergence? [View article]
    I was actually being generous to management with the averages, beginning with the QE April 2011. That's when GAAP EPS dropped to $0.00. If had began the averaging with the next quarter, the averages would have been less favorable / worse to indicate pilfering.

    Non-GAAP is a good indicator for core operations and useful in cases such as HP where there were huge GAAP non-cash charge-offs of Goodwill impairment. You can eliminate the noise of past catastrophic decisions and see what is going on right now.

    Yet in the CRM case with the ongoing Non-GAAP earnings and GAAP losses, all the earnings are vanishing into stock compensation. It is the "ongoing" that bothers me. So, yes, GAAP is a good measure in this case, imho.
    Feb 25, 2013. 10:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Earnings: Life Is Good [View article]
    Thanks for the info! Good luck on the QCOM long!
    Feb 5, 2013. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Earnings: Life Is Good [View article]
    Yep, mobile processing is where the action is, for sure. Google and Baidu keep talking about the massive transition to mobile display.
    Feb 5, 2013. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Earnings: Life Is Good [View article]
    I don't know about QCOM being preferred vendor to AAPL. ARMH comes to mind in that space.

    QCOM management has been saying for several quarters the product pipeline would kick in. It did this past quarter. I understand their sales to Samsung, et al. are offsetting sales to Apple and generating the growth.
    Feb 5, 2013. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    Hello Harmonica and thank you for your input.

    Fundamentals will ultimately prevail. No EPS = No Stock Value

    Some stocks defy gravity on lousy fundamentals for longer than I ever thought they would. This just happens to be one of the stocks, and fundamentals, I cover. Hence my review of the fundamentals and what has been going on at AMZN. The fundamentals create too much uncertainty and I don't think a big upside is there - too much competition.

    Yes, my conclusion is based on my expectations, within the environment Amazon is competing in, which includes notables Apple, Google, even Microsoft.

    If CEO Bezos can generate the promised future of profits and EPS, then AMZN stock will perform and all will be right with the world. I don't think he can pull this off in a significant way because of the other players in his space. Regardless, that's why they play the games - or trade stocks in this instance.
    Feb 2, 2013. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    There is something eerily similar about Jeff Bezos of Amazon and Marc Benioff of SalesForce (CRM). They sure can talk their stock up, lol.
    Feb 1, 2013. 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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