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David Dyer  

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  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    AMZN psychology will change, imho. I just don't know when, hence my saying 2013 in general. As Benjamin Graham said, and I keep this in mind always: “In the short run the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine."
    Feb 10, 2013. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    Well said, lol. Lots of volatility. Investors seem to have a love / hate thing going on with AMZN.
    Feb 5, 2013. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    Very insightful, thanks for your input. I was thinking about all this quantitative easing and the current USA fiscal fiasco this weekend. I remember I told a friend in 2009 that someday the Dow would hit 100,000 - and a car will cost $100+ thousand and God knows what a loaf of bread will cost!

    With the hyper competition online, I just cannot foresee Amazon materially improving their margins. When I analyze their fundamentals, I am glad I don't have to be responsible for their financial results. I rarely think that about the companies I cover, lol.

    I take no pleasure in knocking a CEO or company. However, if the financial results are bad, then I will so state. I have no skin in the AMZN game, one way or the other.
    Feb 3, 2013. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    Thanks. The numbers are correct. I especially check them when they are so bad. "I call them like I see them" and sometimes it is not very inspirational or uplifting, lol. It was more fun covering Apple in their heyday, everyone loves a winner. I'll have something to post about Apple later on. I have a post coming up on Qualcomm which is high on the hog right now.
    Feb 3, 2013. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    Thank you. Yep, you got it figured out. You would like Max Keiser on RT.com btw.
    Feb 3, 2013. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    Farmland goes up in price because of commodity prices or other income or gains that can be generated from the land (e.g. mineral rights, development). I come from an ag family myself. In the 1980s, I audited banks that failed on the Great Plains, and reviewed farm loans that defaulted and were foreclosed on. That was the Willie Nelson Farm Aid days. Back then, the banks loaned on real estate value, now they loan on operating cash flow of the agricultural land. That's why the ag banks didn't fail again en masse during this latest financial crisis.
    Feb 3, 2013. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    As I said in another prior comment, stocks will defy gravity, and fundamentals, for what seems an irrationally long time. Pumping hope, which is greed, to the traders is important when there is little or no EPS in the earnings presentation. Betting on the come becomes the spiel.

    Yes, I remember Q4 2011 when the Kindle Fire was launched, this was the dawn of a new era for Amazon. Except the Fire was sold at cost at best to sell products on the device. Apple, Google, and the Asian mass manufacturers had something to say about that later. Bezos did dent the tablet market, and notably Apple, but that was because he wasn't making any money on his device.

    I said I thought Amazon would test, if not break, $220 in 2013. At some point this year, the sellers will outnumber the buyers, most likely in response to a future quarterly report and/or analysts review of data.

    Glad you have a stop in place, always employ stops. Bad things can happen to good investors.
    Feb 3, 2013. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    Hello Harmonica and thank you for your input.

    Fundamentals will ultimately prevail. No EPS = No Stock Value

    Some stocks defy gravity on lousy fundamentals for longer than I ever thought they would. This just happens to be one of the stocks, and fundamentals, I cover. Hence my review of the fundamentals and what has been going on at AMZN. The fundamentals create too much uncertainty and I don't think a big upside is there - too much competition.

    Yes, my conclusion is based on my expectations, within the environment Amazon is competing in, which includes notables Apple, Google, even Microsoft.

    If CEO Bezos can generate the promised future of profits and EPS, then AMZN stock will perform and all will be right with the world. I don't think he can pull this off in a significant way because of the other players in his space. Regardless, that's why they play the games - or trade stocks in this instance.
    Feb 2, 2013. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    Funny! Are you a gonzo journalist? :)
    Feb 1, 2013. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings: Cooler Heads Will Prevail [View article]
    There is something eerily similar about Jeff Bezos of Amazon and Marc Benioff of SalesForce (CRM). They sure can talk their stock up, lol.
    Feb 1, 2013. 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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