According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of November 6-12, 2009, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) fell 1.05 points to 54.44, staying within bullish territory (see last week's post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report, a reading above 50 is bullish).

The drop in the TSI Worldwide Index was much larger, falling 5.60 points to 51.74, but still staying in bullish territory. Eight of the ten sectors were in bullish territory with the remaining two bearish. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased 0.41 points to 73.61%.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of October 23-29, 2009, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) is borderline bearish at 49.83, after the North American index fell 1.17 points (see last week's post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report, a reading above 50 is bullish). The TSI Worldwide Index actually increased 1.76 points, but was also still just below the break-even point at 49.79 points. Four sectors were in bearish territory, four were neutral, and two were bullish. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased 2.15 points to 67.56%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, VF Corp (VFC), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), and First Solar (FSLR) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Micron Technology (MU), and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) had short broker sentiment. In general, the consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors had long broker sentiment, while the energy, utility, and telecommunication sectors had short broker sentiment.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of October 16-22, 2009, increased profit taking resulted in drops in market sentiment in the U.S., with the TIM Sentiment Index ((TSI)) was down 8.32 points in North America to a significantly lower, but still bullish 51.01 (see last week's post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report, a reading above 50 is bullish).

The TSI Worldwide Index was down 5.57 points, falling into bearish territory at 48.03. Eight sectors were in bearish territory, with two bullish. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM decreased 5.81 points to 65.41%.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of October 9-15, 2009, market sentiment in the U.S. became even more bullish. The TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) was up 3.87 points in North America to 59.32 (see the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index was down 0.96, but remained bullish at 53.60 (a reading above 50 is bullish). Six sectors were bullish, while three were bearish and one was neutral. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased 2.69 points to 71.22%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, WW Grainer Inc (GWW), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), and Pfizer (PFE) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Safeway (SWY) had short broker sentiment. In general, the information technology, financial, and energy sectors had long broker sentiment, while the utilities had short broker sentiment.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of September 25 - October 1, 2009, market sentiment became more bullish. The TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) was up 2.11 points in North America to 53.16 (see previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index was also up, increasing 3.83 points to 51.42. Six sectors were bullish, while three were bearish and one was neutral. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased 3.50 points to 65.55%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Penske Automotive Group (PAG), Bally Technologies (BYI), and Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while MGM Mirage (MGM) and Citrix Systems (CTXS) had short broker sentiment. In general, the consumer staples, financial, and telecommunications sectors had long broker sentiment, while the utilities, health care, and industrial sectors had short broker sentiment.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of September 18-24, 2009, bullish broker sentiment continued to decrease. The TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) was down 1.74 points in North America to 51.05, slightly bullish (see previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index was down 5.14 points to 47.58. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM decreased 6.31 points to 62.05%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, King Pharmaceuticals (KG), American International Group (AIG), and E*Trade Financial (ETFC) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while YUM Brands (YUM), MetroPCS Communications (PCS), and AK Steel Holdings (AKS) had short broker sentiment. In general, the information technology, health care, and financial sectors had long broker sentiment, while the materials and utilities sectors had short broker sentiment.

First Coverage's weekly market sentiment report is still pointing to a bullish market (First Coverage). This week has seven sectors rated bullish, with three, including basic materials, consumer goods, and energy (oil and gas) rated neutral.

The weekly sentiment change has basic materials moving more bearish from last week with a 10.9% decline in sentiment (although still neutral), while health care has become more bullish. The financial sector has also failed to roll over, indicating that the sell-side has still not yet gone bearish, even with the big run-up in this sector over the last six months.

Quant funds who bet on high-quality stocks, while at the same time shorting those stocks that are over-priced, have been under-performing the stock market (WSJ). This under-performance has come in part as a result of poor balance sheet stocks being pulled along by the momentum train of the last few months.

The performance gap has even widening recently as short squeezes have pushed weak stocks higher, just as those with brighter prospects have done worse. Some feel that the under-performance of higher quality stocks may be an indication that the recent move is running out of steam, and that the market may be due for a correction. Breadth and other overbought/oversold indicators continue to flirt at times with high levels and cause concern among the bulls - but then again, they did so one month ago as well.

Moody's issued a special comment paper focusing on Basel II amendments already introduced, as well as statements from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (Risk.net). The paper highlights enhancements relating to a bank's trading book, securitization, and counterparty credit risk.

In particular, the recommendations involve strengthening Tier I capital, introducing tougher liquidity standards, including counter-cyclical provisioning, discussing systemic risk provisions (which is becoming popular in the United States), and including leverage ratios as a supplementary measure. Moody's also believes that proposed Capital Requirement Directive changes to the quality of capital and securitization were also a positive step.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of September 11-17, 2009, market sentiment moderated after being bullish last week. The TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) was down 1.86 points in North America to 52.78 (see previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index was down 3.89 points to 52.72. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM decreased 0.86 points to 68.36%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, DryShips (DRYS), Kroger (KR), and U.S. Steel (X) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Sprint Nextel (S), American International Group (AIG), and Goldman Sachs (GS) had short broker sentiment. In general, the utility, energy, and consumer staples sectors had long broker sentiment, while the information technology sector had short broker sentiment.

Hedge funds increased their stakes in financial stocks during the second quarter according to the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund Trend Monitor (WSJ). Specifically, ownership in financials increased 55% from Q1 to Q2, growing to $70 billion - representing 3.7% of the sector's market capitalization.

Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM) were some of the more popular financial holdings within hedge funds, with Regions Financial (RF) and Citigroup (C) also becoming new long positions for some funds. While the net short position of financials also rose slightly, 8% to $63 billion, the large increase in long exposure has resulted in hedge funds being net long the financials by the end of Q2 (WSJ).

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for August 20th, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) in North America was 50.37, down 1.76 points, right near the critical 50 mark (see last post, and previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index was down marginally. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM decreased 3.15 points to 62.53%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Medidata Solutions (MDSO), BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ), and Alcoa (AA) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while First Solar (FSLR), Brocade Communications (BRCD), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) had short broker sentiment. In general, the materials, telecommunication services, and energy sectors had long broker sentiment, while the consumer staples, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors had short broker sentiment.

The tremendous growth of the Chinese economy and stock market has many wondering how long it will take before China once again regains it spot as the top economy (The Business Insider). When looking at purchasing power parity, some analysts are expecting that China will regain the crown as the top economy by 2015, after 125 years of the U.S. holding the number one spot. Yet for China and any other global market or economy to be a long-term destination for investment, further transparency and disclosure will no doubt be necessary.

Just yesterday I discussed some recent academic research that found investors tend to trade foreign equities more often than their domestic counterparts (Bull Bear Trader). In short, the authors of the study found that the level of trading is higher for stocks in markets for which there are weaker investor protections, or for markets that have lower disclosure standards. The portfolio turnover or churn rate was higher as the quality of information and level of familiarity decreased.

There has been significant research in the past looking at the phenomenon of "home bias," or investing a larger portion of your wealth in a domestic market, despite the benefits of increasing international diversification. Less research has been done on how these home bias investors rebalance between domestic and foreign exposure. Previous research has also produced somewhat conflicting data regarding foreign equity turnover rates, ranking them from having only slightly faster levels of turnover, to foreign equity turnover rates 10 times greater domestic equity turnover rates - although in many cases the data samples were limited to just a handful of countries.

Recent research by Kalok Chan and Vicentiu Covrig examined portfolio rebalancing as measured by the churn rate of mutual funds from 29 different domestic countries - with investments across 48 foreign countries (see their paper, "What Determines Mutual Funds' Trading in Foreign Stocks?"). The results were based on annual holdings of stocks from the years 1999-2004, with churn rates based on changes of equity holdings in consecutive years.

In their research paper "The Value of Enterprise Risk Management," Robert Hoyt and Andre Liebenberg attempt to uncover whether there is firm value in implementing Enterprise Risk Management (ERM). As the authors discuss, ERM has generated considerable interest from the media in recent years as organizations begin implemented enterprise-level risk management programs, and consulting firms and universities look for ways to offer support, guidance, courses, and services related to ERM. Rating agencies have also begun to consider ERM in the rating process, and regulators are taking notice. The ideas of enterprise and system-wide "systemic" risk are also now being given serious consideration at the economic system level.

Put simply, ERM is focused on the idea that instead of managing and examining individual and separately managed silos of risk, firms are now looking at managing risk in a more integrated, enterprise-wide fashion. It is believe that doing so will help to avoid duplication of risk management expenses by exploiting natural hedges, and allow firms to better understand the aggregate risk. ERM programs also have the benefit of allowing firms to better inform outsiders (investors, regulators) of their risk profile, compared to firms that are more operationally complex. It is expected that such added visibility has the benefit of decreasing earnings and stock price volatility, increasing capital efficiency, and increasing enterprise risk awareness - allowing for more holistic operational and strategic decision-making. But enough flowery language. Does it work, and will it increase shareholder wealth?

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for August 13th, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) in North America was 52.13, down 2.42 points, but still over the critical 50 mark (see last post, and previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index averaged 53.40. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM remained high at 65.68%, but down slightly.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Cbeyond (CBEY), TW Telecom (TWTC), and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Allegiant Travel (ALGT), Tellabs (TLAB), and Arch Coal (ACI) had short broker sentiment. In general, the utility, telecommunication, and consumer staples sectors had long broker sentiment, while the financial, material, and consumer discretionary sectors had short broker sentiment.

In their paper "Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, authors Mokoaleli-Mokoteli, Taffler, and Agarwal test whether sell-side analysts are prone to behavioral errors when making stock recommendations, as well as the impact of their investment banking relationships on judgment. The authors find that new buy recommendations on average have no investment value, whereas new sell recommendations do have value, although it takes time for the information to be assimilated by the market.

They also find that new buy recommendations are distinguished from new sells both by the level of analyst optimism and conflicts of interest (no surprise there). Of interest, successful new buy recommendations are characterized by lower prior returns, while successful new sells do not differ from their unsuccessful counterparts in terms of these measures.

The battle of the Dr. Dooms on CNBC (CNBC Video), between Marc Faber and Nouriel Roubini, was uneventful, but did provide some interesting comments. While Dr. Roubini views are pretty well known, even if he is currently a little less pessimistic, Dr. Faber's views may not be as well known, and are worth mentioning. Some observations from the Faber portion of the interview include the following:

• There was a bull market in assets from 2002-2007, along with a weak dollar. In 2008, we had the opposite - a strong dollar, with all assets going down except for bonds. Now, in 2009, assets have rallied, especially in emerging markets as the dollar has weakened.
• For the next couple of months we should see the dollar recover as assets correct downward.
• The dollar will strengthen not because the U.S. economy is the best, but because it is the least cyclical. As the dollar strengthens, global liquidity will tighten.
• As liquidity tightens, growth will begin to disappoint, and emerging markets will become vulnerable, especially after being a favorite of momentum investors who may flee the trade.
• Nonetheless, even with slower economic growth, markets may still go up given that there are a number of worldwide central bankers who are nothing more than money printers and continue to feel the need to intervene when prices go down (except for crude oil).
• To exit this cycle, we may still need a crisis to cause us to fully change behavior and clean the system. Therefore, a total breakdown of the system is likely ahead of us (even if 1, 5, or 10 years away) since we have not let those who caused the problems fail. We cannot continue to provide bailouts that do not help the average person.
• Nonetheless, the Fed and other central bankers will most likely leave rates too low for too long, as household deficits continue to increase.
• Finally, when asked what would have happen if central banks would not have stepped in to stop the credit and market collapse, Faber believes that the market would have dropped more, but the system would be healthier, in part because the debt load on taxpayers would be less.

Nassim Taleb was interviewed on CNBC's Squawk Box Wednesday morning (CNBC Video), along with Nouriel Roubini. Some observations from Taleb include the following (the first one still worth repeating, especially given the recent market moves and short covering, the remaining ideas being essentially repeats from other interviews/columns):

• Short-term markets mean nothing. They are driven by the marginal buyer/seller.
• The risk and problems that we had before - debt, poor leadership - are still there.
• Converting private debt to public debt is just causing more problems.
• Structural problems have not been addressed.
• Too much susceptibility to forecast errors regarding the recovery, budget, and debt.
• Policy makers are still not working on the main problems and their cures, just the symptoms.
• We are continuing to reward those who got us into our current problems.
• Nouriel Roubini is usually correct, except for wanting to reappoint Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke (comment after some praise - too easy, just cannot help himself).

In a challenge to iShares, Vanguard has filed a registration statement with the SEC to offer seven bond index ETFs (Investment News). Three of the ETFs will invest in U.S. Treasuries (1-3 year, 3-10 year, and longer dated), three in corporate bonds (1-5 years, 5-10 years, and long dated), and one in MBS. Each of the ETFs comes with an expense ratio of 0.15%. The company is trying to take advantage of current investment trends, one of which has investors moving into corporate bonds (Forbes).

Bonds funds in general have received $58 billion in May and June, up from $19 billion over the same two months last year. The junk-bond market itself has climbed 40% this year. While some investors are simply chasing returns, others are looking for new ways to diversify away from equities after the market sell-offs in the second half of 2008 and first quarter of 2009.