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David Fessler

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  • Tesla's Crushing Battery Supply Constraints [View article]
    Yes agree with David G. sounds like Mr. Petersen should have bought Tesla stock at $17 instead of that silly penny stock he used to peddle in his previous articles. Why isn't he talking about that now? Seems the only way he can get attention is to write negative articles about anything. It's a shame, because he otherwise is a good writer.
    Aug 26 03:20 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar: Here It Comes [View article]
    Here's data, right from the EIA...


    Below are the subsidy levels for all the different types of energy, just for 2007. The data is right from a 2008 report from the EIA.

    Renewables (in total) $4,875,000,000
    Refined Coal: $2,370,000,000
    Natural gas: $2,149,000,000
    Nuclear: $1,267,000,000
    Coal $932,000,000

    So let’s look at the government’s fuel subsidies in a different way. How many “subsidy dollars” does it take to produce, say, one megawatt-hour of electricity, for each of those subsidized forms of energy? Again, we turn back to the EIA data:

    Refined Coal: $29.81/Mwh
    Solar: $24.34/Mwh
    Wind: $23.37/Mwh
    Nuclear: $1.59/Mwh
    Coal: $0.44/Mwh
    Natural gas $0.25/Mwh

    Before you jump up and down and say "see I told you so" while solar and wind are high, they are also the newest on the list.
    All you have to do is look at coal to know solar and wind will play a big part in our nation's energy future, and without all the pollution that goes along with all the others.
    Dec 28 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar: Here It Comes [View article]
    I don't usually weigh in on other author's articles, but this one is so poorly written, researched, biased, and myopic in its views, I felt it necessary.

    First of all, "ridiculous amounts of land" aren't required. WalMart alone has over 35 square miles of store roofs in the U.S. alone. Similarly large tracts of "land" are available on the tops of other big box stores like Home Depot, Lowe's, etc. Most industrial parks are loaded with flat-roofed warehouse buildings that would require little if any modification to the building's structure to accommodate solar.

    If solar was installed on these buildings, it would eliminate the need for other, more polluting forms of generation.

    In terms of solar subsidies, it obviously comes as a surprise to you that every single form of energy generation in the United States receives some form of subsidy. Every one. Clearly you need to do a little more research on this point. I mentioned it in an article I wrote on solar a few months ago.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I spent most of my life in the semiconductor business. Solar cells are nothing more than large semiconductors. Like their smaller counterparts, mass production and advances in manufacturing technology continues to reduce their costs.

    The first cellphones were thousands of dollars. Now they are smaller, orders of magnitude cheaper, and pack more computing power than mainframes did just a decade ago.

    Solar costs will reach grid parity, storage battery technology and costs will also continue to come down, and in spite of your short-sighted view, it will be a major source of power both here and around the world. Technology marches on, and it does for solar as well.
    Dec 28 10:21 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LED Bulbs: The Future Of Lighting [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words. Having spent 25 years in the semiconductor business in a previous life, I know that technology marches on when it comes to semiconductors, and just about everything else for that matter.

    It won't be long before the economies of scale will do the same for LED lighting. That will, for the most part, relegate CFLs and incandescents to dust bins and museums.

    I saw it happen with semiconductors when I was in the industry, and it's continued to happen in the 12 years I've been out of it.

    Just look at the technology packed into a current smartphone, unthinkable at any price just a decade ago.

    LED lighting will eventually transform the energy picture in the U.S. and elsewhere. Cree will certainly be one of the drivers and beneficiaries of that transformation.
    Dec 11 06:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Oil Is The New Energy Boom In The U.S. [View article]
    I beg to differ, and so do two of the largest operators in the Niobrara. Two days ago, both Anadarko and Noble Energy both reported excellent Niobrara drilling results in the Oil and Gas Journal.

    "Excellent economics" was a phrase used by Anadarko, and Noble plans to double its Niobrara rig counts there in two years.

    They wouldn't be doing that if the play was uneconomical. Both companies have done enough drilling there to de-risk their own acreage.

    Here's the article verbatum: Two key operators have provided positive assessments of horizontal drilling results in the emerging Niobrara play in giant Wattenberg field in the Denver-Julesburg basin.
    Anadarko Petroleum Corp. said its well results in the Niobrara and Codell formations indicate excellent economics and a net resource of 500 million-1.5 billion bbl of oil equivalent, and Noble Energy Inc. said its Niobrara activities have revealed an estimated net risked resource of 1.3 billion boe, up more than 60% from 2010.
    Anadarko, producing from only 11 horizontal wells within field boundaries, said the company has 1,200-2,700 future drilling locations with estimated ultimate recoveries of 300,000-600,000 boe/well, 70% liquids. It put costs at $4-5 million/well. Initial well rates have averaged 800 boe/d.
    Initial rate at Anadarko’s best horizontal well to date, the Dolph 27-1HZ, was 1,100 b/d of oil and more than 2.4 MMcfd of gas. The well paid out in less than 4 months, and EUR exceeds 600,000 boe. The play should become self-funding in short order because payouts are expected to average 10 months, Anadarko said.
    At more than 70,000 boe/d, Anadarko is the largest net producer in the basin. It holds more than 350,000 net acres in Wattenberg and operates more than 5,200 wells with an average 96% working interest and 88% net revenue interest.
    Anadarko will run extensive tests to define the optimum spacing and lateral lengths for the Niobrara and Codell. It plans to be running seven rigs drilling Wattenberg horizontal wells by the end of 2012 and drill 160 horizontal wells compared with 40 in 2011.
    Anadarko said it is exploring other liquids-rich horizontal opportunities on its 550,000 net acres in the greater DJ basin outside Wattenberg and 360,000 net acres in the Powder River basin. Both prospective for the horizontal Niobrara and “other horizons that we will evaluate over time.”
    Noble Energy said it holds more than 840,000 net acres in the DJ basin and expects to double its 2011 net production of 67,000 boe/d, 54% liquids, by 2016.
    Niobrara horizontal drilling, Noble Energy said, has derisked the legacy portions of Wattenberg and has expanded the economic limits of the field by 67%. The company’s 58 horizontal wells in the Niobrara are yielding 14,000 boe/d of net production, up more than 20% since Sept. 30.
    “Strong returns continue to improve with recent production performance exceeding previous results. The company’s most recent 18 wells are expected to achieve an average EUR of 355,000 boe, which is a 22% improvement over an average EUR of 290,000 boe from 23 early wells,” Noble Energy said.
    Within 2 years, Noble Energy plans to double its horizontal Niobrara rig count and well completions.
    Nov 17 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Completely Ignore WTI Crude Oil Prices [View article]
    Great idea. The chances of this administration doing that are essentially zero. But watch what happens when oil spikes well above $100 a barrel again. And it will.
    Nov 2 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Completely Ignore WTI Crude Oil Prices [View article]
    Actually, ALL of the continually dwindling output from the Alaska pipeline is soaked up by west coast refineries. Alaskan oil hasn't been exported since 2004.

    Gasoline prices are high because the area you live in is pipeline and refinery limited. It's all about supply and demand.

    Alaskan oil futures trade just like West Texas Intermediate on the futures exchange. The only difference is that it's the same refineries buying the output all the time.

    Hope this helps.
    Nov 1 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Natural Gas Trend [View article]
    The article reflects not only todays prices, but the forecast for this winter as well. Natural gas will look even more attractive as the price for oil continues to rise, which it most assuredly will.

    Relative to oil, natural gas will remain cheap on a Btu to Btu (apples to apples) basis.
    Oct 19 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Renewable Energy Risks Rise, Invest in Natural Gas [View article]
    Agreed. Battery storage, like any other technology, is continually evolving. Technology marches on, and grid storage is on its way to becoming big business as more and more small-scale generation sources (solar panels and wind generators) end up on the distribution side of the grid.
    Jun 1 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Aging Infrastructure: Companies That Could Benefit From Rebuilding [View article]
    Hi Joe,
    Please don't shoot the messenger...

    I'm not suggesting Germany's tax rate of 2.6 times the money needed is correct. But neither is America's collecting just 72% of the money needed and expecting roads to be in good condition. 100% would be the right number, IMHO. People who use the roads should pay for them. Increasing the gasoline tax is such a no-brainer, it's no wonder Congress hasn't taken action...
    May 26 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Energy Consumption: Uncovering the Home Power Puzzle [View article]
    They will also have the capability to supply energy back to the grid during times of peak load, thereby eliminating the need to build additional "peaking plants", which are very expensive to run. Electric cars will still be cheaper than $4-5 a gallon gasoline...
    May 23 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Should Know About Gas Prices [View article]
    I know I'll get a negative response from the "moving the pollution from the tailpipe to the smokestack" crowd, but I agree with your assessment of price eventually altering behavior.

    Right now, there aren't a whole lot of EV's sitting in dealer lots waiting to be snapped up. That's simply an initial supply issue, just like with any new product (Apple's iPhone, iPad, etc.).

    In addition, there aren't charging stations everywhere you go to eliminate the perceived "range anxiety" many would-be adopters of EV's are thinking will be a problem for them.

    At least not in Pennsylvania, where I live. But eventually, and in relatively short order ( 1-3 years), both these problems will disappear. The EV is a real game-changer.

    In terms of the tailpipe to smokestack issue, that depends on where you live, and what power company you are using. You can, of course, buy your power from a totally "green" supplier.

    We certainly won't be weaned off fossil fuels anytime soon, but high prices will certainly make it happen faster, IMHO.
    Apr 26 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From Diverging Natural Gas Prices [View article]
    Thanks for pointing out the error. The company that was supposed to be the third company referenced in my article was in fact, Golar LNG Ltd. (Nasdaq:GLNG).

    You are correct. To my knowledge, Frontline has no exposure to LNG. Sorry for the confusion!
    Apr 16 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spotlight Shines on Natural Gas, As Japan's Nuclear Fallout Continues [View article]
    Gassy13, Please don't shoot the messenger, and please don't ignore the facts. I'm not suggesting all the nuclear plants in the world all of a sudden have a problem. Others are all ready doing that. I'm an investor, not a politician. I look at life, sectors and companies from an investment standpoint. If I thought the nuclear sector was a compelling investment at this point, I'd be writing an article about it. In light of recent events, I don't think it is. Natural gas, on the other hand, is severely undervalued compared to other sources of energy. That's why power companies are switching to it in droves. That will eventually raise its price, and the price of companies in the sector. Supply and demand is an amazing concept... and it works every time.
    Mar 18 08:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Copper Is My Number One Energy Investment Idea [View article]
    Agreed. The speculators add an artificial component to all commodities, and it's sometimes tough to sort out how much they are affecting the price of a given commodity at any given moment. Throw geopolitical events and "acts of God" and you've got a great new table game for Las Vegas...
    Mar 11 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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