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David Fessler  

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  • Why Copper Is My Number One Energy Investment Idea [View article]
    If you were shorting it, I might agree with you, but this company's been dropping like a stone since the beginning of the year. It's off $12 a share. I suppose once it returns to its historical average of about $30 a share it might become a buy again, but I wouldn't touch it here, especially with copper prices in retreat...
    Mar 11, 2011. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Copper Is My Number One Energy Investment Idea [View article]
    Your observations on natural rubber is very timely. I just finished an article today that will be published on Monday over at
    Seeking Alpha will probably grab it the same day, but if you want to read it a few hours earlier, check over there.

    Your observation is spot on... both copper and natural rubber are extremely volatile commodities... not for the faint of heart. I think a much better way to play them is the long term trend. I'm not aware of a natural rubber ETF, but there's an idea...
    Mar 4, 2011. 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Copper Is My Number One Energy Investment Idea [View article]
    Anything that happens in China these days, positive or negative, will have an impact on commodities, and copper is no exception. Even if China slows down just a little, copper demand will still far exceed supply. This one's a no brainer long-term. I'm not a short-term trader, so I tend to ignore short-term market fluctuations.

    Copper is the Apple of the commodities world... but then so are steel and natural rubber, which are the subjects of my next two articles. Stay tuned... :)
    Mar 4, 2011. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Market New World Order: 3 Ways to Profit [View article]
    Not sure I agree with you on that one. The demand in China and India -- if it continues as it currently is -- will far outstrip the ability of the world's oil companies to supply the increased demand. China alone will use all of the current supply by by 2030 if its demand continues to increase at current rates.

    The only reason things "appear' to be OK now is the depressed demand from OECD countries, most of whom are still mired in recessions to some degree...
    Feb 19, 2011. 02:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Market New World Order: 3 Ways to Profit [View article]
    Petrobras is the leader in deepwater exploration, drilling, and production. Much of the technology required was invented by them. They claim anything over $40 a barrel is cost effective for them to go that deep. While it's clearly expensive to drill down 5-7 miles, the size of the reservoirs they are producing from, as well as the quality of the oil makes it cost-effective over the life of the reservoir. Drilling costs are amortized over the life of the reservoir, which could be 20 years or more.

    There's a lot more oil below Brazil's pre-salt and sub-salt fields than has been publicly disclosed. Just look at their website and how many new fields they've announced in the past year, and you begin to get the idea...
    Feb 19, 2011. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Market New World Order: 3 Ways to Profit [View article]
    I personally have owned Seadrill for a year or so. I too think it's a great company, and a great way to play the deep water drilling space. Its services will become in even greater demand as deepwater drilling continues to gain traction in other parts of the world. It will be sometime before the U.S. government allows it again here, much to our detriment, I believe.

    Clearly the BP disaster was human error. The technology is proven, as long as corners aren't cut...
    Feb 19, 2011. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Plug-In Vehicles Are a Luxury No Nation and No Investor Can Afford [View article]

    I've read many of your articles, and while your analysis is generally correct with regards to what is happening today, you conveniently ignore the fact that "technology marches on... continually". I spent over 20 years in the semiconductor industry, and saw advances that made my head spin. In the ten years since I've left, the advances have been even more amazing.

    With EVs, we are at the very beginning. Battery and vehicle technology will continue to make them more efficient over time.

    You can't possibly expect all the coal and fossil fuel plants to be replaced overnight. But coal plants are being retired on a regular basis, or being converted over to cleaner burning natural gas. That will continue. So, over time, the "long tailpipe argument" will have less and less merit, I believe.

    Global warming aside, getting off foreign oil is crucial to the future economic health of the United States. Spending $1 billion every day to purchase foreign oil is insanity. Putting it to use here on EVs and CNG vehicles (ala Pickens) and the associated refueling/recharging infrastructure makes more sense.

    Rome wasn't built in a day, but if we don't get started, we'll never get there. I think there's no question we're going to be beholden to fossil fuels for a long time. But we can certainly lessen our foreign dependence on oil, and improve our nation's security in the process.

    The EV industry is already creating thousands of engineering and production jobs, and it's just getting started. As far as lithium-ion technology goes, there's a lot of money going to be made investing in companies who mine and produce it, regardless of whether or not it ends up being the final EV battery technology. Right now, it seems to be building quite a head of steam.

    I for one think EVs are here to stay, and investors who position themselves correctly stand to make a lot of money as the adoption of them increases. Fleet EVs are already being eagerly accepted by the likes of Fed Ex and UPS. They can't wait to begin replacing their diesel guzzling delivery vehicles.

    We shall all have to wait and see what happens, but I believe EVs are building quite a head of steam. Arguing about how clean the power is that is recharging them is a moot point. That's a separate problem, and one that's being fixed. When's the last time you saw a new coal-fired plant being built here?

    All the Best,

    Dave Fessler
    Feb 14, 2011. 01:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the New Oil Boom in Texas [View article]
    All good points, Carl. Thanks for pointing out the other plays EOG has a working interest in. It just strengthens its share value.

    As natural gas use continues to rise, so will its price. That will be nothing but good news for EOG shareholders...

    Dave Fessler
    Feb 11, 2011. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs: Paving the 2011 High-Income Highway [View article]
    Appreciate all the comments. As several posters have pointed out, I should have more fully explained all the different kinds of REITs. I did point out that the two I mentioned are agency-backed mREITs.

    As several posters have also correctly pointed out, as long as short and long term rates and inflation remain status quo, these two stocks and others like them will remain compelling investments.

    Commercial REITs are a completley different animal. In suburban America, there is a negative absorbtion of commercial real estate space. In the last year over 15,000,000 square feet of additional commercial real estate came onto the market. This has had the effects of keeping prices depressed, vacancy rates high, and investments in them performing poorly.

    New York City is an exception, and there are real bargains to be had there in commercial real estate now. I'm not aware of any commercial REITs that focus exclusively on NYC real estate, but there may in fact be one.
    Jan 10, 2011. 09:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration: Electric Drive Forecasts Running in Reverse Since 2009 [View article]
    John, what about the 800lb gorilla in BEVs favor in the form of fleet adoption of BEVs? BEV adoption by fleets is something that's being overlooked here. Most large fleet owners are already testing and experimenting with BEVs, and since most of them travel far less than 100 miles in a day, "range anxiety" isn't a problem for them.

    One of their biggest costs is fuel and maintenance, and a BEV will likely cost less for both. I haven't seen any cost spreadsheets from fleet owners, and it's likely we never will. The point is that once fleets start using them en-masse, the public won't be far behind.

    As with any new technology, BEVs will experience fits and starts. But with nearly ALL of the big automakers announcing entire families of BEVs, it will continue to be one of the hottest sectors for investment over the next 5-10 years, IMHO.

    The biggest problem the car manufacturers will have is keeping up with demand. I think you'll find the EIA numbers will be way off... on the low side. The big variable, of course is trying to predict what the adoption rate of them will be by Americans and others around the world. $5 gasoline will certainly help to push their thinking in favor of them.
    Jan 9, 2011. 10:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Invest in Lithium? [View article]
    I concur with a previous poster about the number of errors in your article. Here's another one: "The largest rock production is in Australia, while the largest brine production is in Chile and Bolivia."

    Better check your facts: Bolivia, may have huge lithium reserves, but it produces no lithium, and it likely won't for some time. It's government won't partner with outside companies, and it doesn't have the technical knowledge to develop its reserves on its own.

    A more accurate statement would be "The largest rock production is in Australia, while the largest brine production is in Chile and Argentina."
    Dec 29, 2010. 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 2011 Will Be a Strong Year for Energy and Infrastructure [View article]
    As previous posters have said, distributions from MLP's are considered a return of capital rather than taxable income. There was some indication that an IRS ruling was pending on this, but until they definitively make a ruling, your best bet is to consult with a tax attorney. Everyone's case is different...
    Dec 23, 2010. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • California Crushes Proposition 23: What It Means for America… and Investors [View article]
    Regardless of where solar panels are made, the installers and service people have to live and work in America. With a little incentive at the Federal level, we could have a thriving green energy business in this country. There's a reason 45% of all the panels made in the world - including China - go to one country: Germany.

    Germany's successful implementation of the feed-in-tariff concept has resulted in a thriving green energy sector there, and the country now gets over 10% of its total electrical energy needs from the sun.

    So it's possible to have a viable green sector. Sadly, but of no surprise to most Americans, the 400 people in Washington (Congress) operate in an apparent vacuum from the rest of us. In my humble opinion, it's doubtful our energy dilemma will be solved by them anytime soon.
    Nov 7, 2010. 04:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Gas Revolution: Real or Unreal? [View article]
    If you weren't so impressed with yourself, perhaps readers could take what you say with something more than a grain of salt.

    Anyone who constantly refers to themselves as "brilliant" -- which you do in most of your posts -- loses credibility rather quickly.

    Any "brilliance" you may have -- and I'm really going out on a limb here -- will come out in your writing.

    Perhaps you should start out your research sessions with a slice of humble pie. Wash that down with some factual research, and you might just end up with an article that's somewhere north of gibberish...

    Otherwise, it barely even rates as entertainment, let alone useful.
    Oct 31, 2010. 05:31 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosetta Resources: An Oil Driller on Steroids [View article]
    Hello John,
    Great question, and yes roughly 75% of Rosetta's acreage is in the liquids-rich window of the Eagle Ford.

    The company has a total of 64,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford area, which gives them about 48,000 in the high oil pay area.

    With oil prices set to rise globally for the foreseeable future, this certainly bodes well for the company's future prospects.

    Good Investing,

    Oct 12, 2010. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment