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David Fish

 
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  • Dumpster Diving The Dividend Challengers [View article]
    Note that UG just cut its dividend (so it has been removed from the Challenger listing for the next update).
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing Doesn't Work: Intel And Philip Morris Edition [View article]
    "Its even less than what you expected. The author picks a single pair of stocks, one which froze its dividend"

    Pen...It's even worse than you spelled out. He starts by postulating that DGI sold Intel en masse in January 2014 because they were disappointed that the company didn't announce a dividend increase. But consider:
    1. It was NOT a meaningful point in time with regard to expectations, since INTC had last raised its dividend in 3Q12 and was, therefore, expected to raise in 3Q13...but disappointed people by not doing so. It repeated this disappointment in 4Q13 and then, for the third straight quarter, did so again in 1Q14 (January), when the author apparently feels that people were "suddenly" disappointed enough to sell INTC and "collectively threw in the towel." He fails to address why there was a six-month delayed reaction.

    2. The author then proceeds to make his case that Intel did better than PM by saying "Lest I be accused of cherry-picking, I went back to January 2013 just to confirm. Over that period, Intel's shares are up over 80% with dividends." Huh? He decides to measure what happened 10 months ago by going back 22 months and claiming that it shows that it would have been smarter to hold Intel after a "disappointment" that actually had occurred six months earlier. Why is he measuring from January 2013, six months after Intel had raised its dividend and a FULL YEAR before he cites a supposed universal reaction to what was, essentially, "old news???" (Frankly, I'm surprised that no one else seems to have picked up on this glaring error in math and logic! "Proving" that an action 10 months ago was a mistake by measuring performance staring 22 months ago???!!!)

    3. The main criterion I use to delete a company for a "freeze" is that it is confirmed by back-to-back years of paying the same amount. So when was Intel deleted from the CCC? Answer: Sept. 12, 2014, when the company announced its 4Q14 dividend.
    Nov 26, 2014. 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 75 Fairly Valued High Current Income Dividend Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 2 [View article]
    Note that UG just cut its dividend.
    Nov 25, 2014. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Dividends 'The First Cut Is The Deepest' - Or Is It? [View article]
    Bob,
    Nice article and excellent detail, especially with regard to highlighting the fact that there are MANY different approaches among DG investors...an important truth that is often ignored by DG critics who portray all DG investors as being alike.
    If there is one "good" thing about dividend cuts it is that the "Great Recession" numbers have shown themselves to be an anomaly, with far fewer cuts taking place in more "typical" years. (In fact, since 2008, there have been just 72 CCC companies that cut, or about 10 per year, even including 2008-2009, which is a very small percentage of a universe that will soon total 600 or more companies.)
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champions: 11 Increases Expected By The End Of January [View article]
    Valspar (VAL) also announced a 15% dividend increase, to 30¢ per quarter, marking the 37th consecutive year of increases...

    http://yhoo.it/1uTUz6u
    Nov 25, 2014. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champions: 11 Increases Expected By The End Of January [View article]
    That's great! I like the last part about dividends paid without interruption since 1928...even during that silly episode back in Oct. 1929...;)
    Nov 25, 2014. 10:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing, Total Return, And Indexing: Let's Take Another Look [View article]
    Nice to see some actual facts and figures for more meaningful time periods. You could have added a fifth point: During times of economic expansion and strong bull markets, growth stocks (and the indexes that include them) are SUPPOSED to outperform value stocks (and DGI is a value strategy). Over the past 5 (or 6 years), that is exactly the environment we've had, so showing that SPY and VTI outperformed 30 DG stocks over the past five years is truly one of those D'uh! "revelations."
    Nov 25, 2014. 12:36 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing Doesn't Work: Intel And Philip Morris Edition [View article]
    "Lest I be accused of cherry-picking, I went back to January 2013 just to confirm. Over that period, Intel's shares are up over 80% with dividends. Not bad for "dregs", no?"

    I agree, but it gets worse: In the opening sentence, the author says, "When Intel didn't increase its dividend this past January, Seeking Alpha's sizable cohort of retail dividend growth investors collectively threw in the towel."

    So...if DG investors collectively "threw in the towel" this PAST January, why is the author going back to January 2013...a year earlier??? What on Earth is that supposed to measure??? And since Intel had last increased its dividend in the 3rd quarter of 2012, it wasn't expected to increase it again until the 3rd quarter of 2013. No doubt Intel investors were disappointed that it didn't, so I wonder why they waited six MORE months (and two more dividend announcements) before they "threw in the towel." What was so magical about January 2014??? And how did I miss this supposed mass exodus?
    (I guess I missed the News Flash about throwing in the towel. I still have my Intel shares.)
    Nov 25, 2014. 12:12 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is VDIGX A Good Dividend Growth Investment? [View article]
    "Depends on the yacht..."

    Heh, give the poor guys a break! You can't expect them to keep sailing around in last year's yacht, can you? Besides, without the trade-ins, how are the used-yacht salesmen (and women) going to make a living?
    If these poor guys don't make enough money, they'll have to wait for a "Buy one-get one free" sale on yachts...and nobody wants to be seen doing that at the Discount Yacht stores...er, marinas.
    Nov 24, 2014. 11:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Managing A Large Dividend Growth Stock Portfolio Time-Consuming? [View article]
    Nice article and I agree with your main point: It's fun! (Not Fund)

    I shake my head at the fund advocates who suggest paying a fee to get the same results because...as Forrest Gump would say...funds are like a box of chocolate: you never know what you're gonna get. JNJ may be the top holding today. Next week it may be half-gone and something else is number one. The fund can hold dozens of stocks that yield 3% or more, yet mysteriously yields less than 2%. Worse yet, there's nothing you can do to "knock some sense" into the fund's managers.
    Nov 24, 2014. 01:32 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is VDIGX A Good Dividend Growth Investment? [View article]
    That's why they do what they do...:(
    Nov 24, 2014. 12:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is VDIGX A Good Dividend Growth Investment? [View article]
    DVK,
    Great work once again in analyzing a "Dividend Growth" fund. The biggest disappointment is in the low yield. A couple of points:

    1. "The drop in 2010 is harder to understand." This is simply a timing function, or delayed reaction, to some of the 2009 dividend cuts. For example, GE paid 31¢ in the first couple of quarters of 2009, then 10¢. So even though it raised the rate to 11¢ in late 2010, it paid less that year in total than it had in 2009. Pfizer and several others would show a similar effect.
    2. The expense ratio is especially alarming in view of the size of the fund. At $22.7 billion, VDIGX has slightly more assets than VIG (at $21.04 billion), yet its expense ratio is more than three times as high, at 31 basis points, vs. 10 basis points (and 7 basis points for SCHD, which has only $2.53 billion in assets) according to Morningstar. That's a LOT of extra expense...over four times the ratio for SCHD multiplied by about 9 times the assets...so VDIGX is about 36 TIMES as costly!
    Nov 24, 2014. 09:08 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Are Not In A Bubble, But Many Of Them Are Pricey [View article]
    Miz,
    That's because their goal is not to "get it." Their goal is to take advantage of popular trends to "gather" assets (from clueless investors).

    If investing in peanut butter stocks became popular, you could be sure that we'd see a rush of new Peanut Butter ETFs in no time.
    Nov 22, 2014. 03:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CCC DiviDogs 2011 - Year 1 [View article]
    Thanks for the update...very interesting results, to say the least. It will be interesting to see how the following years' Dogs do!
    Nov 21, 2014. 09:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Challengers (And Near-Challengers): 44 Increase Expected By January 31 [View article]
    Note: JCI just declared an increase to be paid on Jan. 5 that adds makes it the latest addition to the Challengers listing.
    Nov 19, 2014. 11:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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