David Fry's  Instablog

Much of the street is abuzz with rumors that tomorrow’s employment report will hold a large bullish surprise.  And, yes, the government manipulates data with seasonal adjustments and their imaginary birth/death models.  But, it’s the headline that matters.

 

Our friend at Jesse’s Café Americain put it this way: “The imaginary jobs component, also known as the Bureau of Labor Statistics Birth-Death Model, will contribute approximately 72,000 jobs allegedly created by small businesses with less credible evidence than a Bigfoot or an Elvis sighting.  We can expect this number to continue to show positive annual jobs growth until the End of Days, and perhaps longer than that if there is fireproof paper in the afterlife.”

 

Some are suggesting a gonzo-like job gain of over 300K tomorrow!  This might explain.... READ MORE!

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January 6, 2010

 

 

 

COMMODITIES ON CENTER STAGE

 

Energy inventory data was bearish overall as supplies rose on the week; but, the momentum is with bulls and prices ended the day higher.  Base metals led by copper and so forth also are on a tear higher.  Even agricultural commodities joined the bulls as weather concerns peril orange juice and other crops. 

 

It’s no coincidence then that bond yields would rise given the historical inverse relationship between basic commodity indexes and bond yields with a lag of a few months.  But, we’ve never seen this much supply of new Treasury bond issues so the lag may have already disappeared.  And, if the Fed should stop buying for their account what the Treasury is selling the recovery will stall.  Hell, some even suggest the Fed would like to see the stock market correct so interest rates don’t rise too much.  Based on the release of Fed meeting minutes today there is.....READ MORE!

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January 5, 2010

 

 

STOCKS PROPPED AS INVESTORS AWAIT DATA

 

Auto Sales, as expected…check.  Factory Orders, better than expected…check.  Pending Homes Sales, sucked…avert your eyes please.  Markets dipped on housing news but that was quickly reversed and things remained well bid as selling will not do.

 

Program trading is still the dominant force in markets and computers are just pushing each other.....READ MORE!

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