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David Greene  

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  • MannKind Finally Catches A Break [View article]
    Sanofi knows what it has to do to increase the adoption of Afreezza in the marketplace. They clearly did not do a well designed market launch. With MNKD identifying the spirometer problem and Sanofi increasing the reps payout AND the initiation of Direct to Consumer advertising, I would be shocked to see no increase in prescriptions going forward.

    The huge short interest puts another dimension in place with the stock price. With over 100 Million shares shorted as of the end of April, there is a great deal of exposure to the shorts to any fundamental news that changes the prospects of MNKD.

    Until very recently, the shorts were riding a wave of negativity. That trend may be in long term jeopardy.
    May 19, 2015. 01:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Afrezza Officially 'Unofficially' Hits $1 Million In Sales [View article]
    When Bank of America files that they are buying more MNKD and Blackrock files that they have increased their position to 4.7% of the outstanding shares, it really is no surprise what the stock is up today.

    With the preponderance of analysts currently very negative on the stock with lower target prices, there now is a curious conundrum developing for these analysts.

    How does the BOA analyst say that MNKD is not a BUY, when they are buying MNKD?

    And will Goldman Sachs really stay with their $3 target price with Blackrock buying down here?

    And will the shorts--100 million shares shorted--will they remain short with these cross currents. A few more days of consolidation to upside, and the trend line has been broken.
    May 15, 2015. 03:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: A Good Risk/Reward Play For The Long Haul [View article]
    MNKD management has a tall order for the conference call tomorrow. They have to give investors accurate information on the reality of the NOW. But they must speak to the future of the next two quarters. Sanofi is going to support their reps with a direct to consumer marketing campaign, finally get enough samples in the pipeline for physicians, upped the bonuses for Afreeza scripts to the reps etc.

    But it would help if MNKD management offered some surprise development or strategy to change the immediate perception that Afreeza is in trouble.

    I happen to believe that the initiatives outlined above will start the momentum within the healthcare community and the Sanofi sales force. If a patient asks their doctor if they can try Afreeza after be directly presented the ease of use and other benefits, the reps will start filling up their potential sales pipeline with warm leads from physicians driven to ask more questions on behalf of their interested patients.

    In the meantime, the shorts have the floor and most are listening to their siren song of disaster.

    But I believe that Sanofi and MNKD will ultimately steer clear of the rocks.
    May 6, 2015. 07:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: A Good Risk/Reward Play For The Long Haul [View article]
    The tug of war here and in the markets will continue. There are shorts that have a vested interest to see the stock continue falling and the drug to fail--for financial reasons.

    And the longs are hopeful that the stock goes up based on improving market prospects for the drug.

    But make no mistake between hope and fantasy--whether as a short or long. Mitigating risk is the key here.

    In the short term, I predict that the shorts will start covering. Not all, but the short interest is SO HIGH, even a small short squeeze could take MNKD over $5-$5.50.

    It has been my experience that when the market expects some event(s) to be a foregone conclusion, the market turns out to be wrong.

    And that is what I see happening here.

    And, yes, I just recently went long MNKD last week. So I am not in the camp of long suffering longs that are desperate for the stock to turn. MNKD and Sanofi undeniably botched the Soft Launch. But to presume that that cannot be corrected is to be, well, --probably a Short hoping for more downside.

    GLTU
    May 5, 2015. 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Afrezza Officially 'Unofficially' Hits $1 Million In Sales [View article]
    A Sanofi sales rep I spoke with told me that the company has increased the financial incentives to the sales force to ramp up Afreeza scripts. According to this rep, there was a problem with a shortage of brochures and focus on Afreeza when first launch. Sanofi recognizes now that trial and eventual adoption of Afreeza b patients and doctors will require a more concerted effort to build the testimonial pool of satisfied care providers and patients.

    Sanofi is also rolling out a Direct to consumer marketing campaign to generate questions by the patient to the doctor about Afreeza.

    The two marketing approaches--both Push Marketing and Pull Marketing--will undoubtedly increase the number of scripts. The question is how much of an increase and how soon?

    But with a Short Interest of approximately 110 million shares by now (Short Interest was at 98 Million shares as of April 15--and increasing), any shift in trend will elicit short covering by some shorts wanting to lock in their undeniable gains.

    The Conference Call on Thursday could become the beginning of this trend reversal.
    May 5, 2015. 08:34 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: A Good Risk/Reward Play For The Long Haul [View article]
    MNKD must conduct a professional and informative Conference Call this Thursday to encourage shareholders. But it must be based on concrete steps being taken to increase scripts. We already know that Sanofi has increased the incentives to their reps for new Afreeza scripts at the same time ramping up a Direct to consumer media campaign.

    IMO, there will be no way that there will NOT be a significant increase in scripts. After speaking with a Sanofi rep, it is clear that Sanofi mishandled the launch. There was not sufficient availability of collateral (brochures etc.) and there seemed there was a "build it and they will come" mentality.

    That approach has been thoroughly discredited, and both MNKD and Sanofi will be committing more resources to build sales momentum and, therefore, a large testimonial pool of happy Afreeza users.

    In the short term, do not be surprised to see MNKD increase in price as some nervous shorts close out their positions to lock in their profits before the conference call.
    May 5, 2015. 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: A Good Risk/Reward Play For The Long Haul [View article]
    A paradigm shift in treating a chronic disease like diabetes will take time. If anything, the biggest problem for MNKD has been expectations and the pile on mentality of short sellers that smell short term opportunity.

    If MNKD has anything that is construed as surprisingly positive in the Earnings Call on May 8, there will be short sellers closing out their positions. The maintenance requirements for keeping a short sale position can limit an investor's "buying power".

    And, as with all short squeezes, the potential exists for the reverse to happen-- buyers coming in seeing a bottom being put in at the same time the shorts are covering.
    May 1, 2015. 02:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: A Cheap Cigar Butt? [View article]
    The lagging investment returns seen in PSEC will not change until management changes--whether there is new management or management changes their own compensation plan.
    Apr 25, 2015. 05:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Expect From Chesapeake Energy's Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Short Interest has risen to, as of 3/31/2015, 135,556,032 shares short
    Apr 13, 2015. 09:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unwinding Of Convertible Notes Has Positive Implications For MannKind [View article]
    BearCrusher, you are correct. There is no required "buy back " of shares shorted by convert holders. They profit by selling shares at a higher price and covering the short with the shares received from the conversion.

    Pretty sweet deal.

    The only way the convertible holders get "hurt" is if they leave more profit on the table if MNKD were to go above what they sold the shares short.
    Apr 2, 2015. 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unwinding Of Convertible Notes Has Positive Implications For MannKind [View article]
    As of March 13, the Short Interest on MNKD was over 90 Million shares

    http://bit.ly/1cnR7Ij
    Mar 31, 2015. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Lessons From Ohr Pharma [View article]
    Your research on OHRP since last year is to be commended, Mr. Pearson. Many here might be upset with your emphasis on the negative--because they are in the stock. But these results are not to be denied. And the history of the insiders of OHRP should not be ignored.

    Your article on OHRP from last year noting Dr. Shalom Hirschman and Advanced Viral Research (ADVR) and how OHRP "built" a portfolio of drugs candidates from other failed biotechs makes for compelling reading-- http://seekingalpha.co...

    There are many in the investment world that the pursuit of wealth has no limits--the ends justifies the means. As you noted, Dr. Hirschman of ADVR "fame" ran the company into the ground and then had the audacity (some would call it "shrewd") to buy the rights to a promising drug that ADVR from Hirschman's toxic financier of choice--the infamous Cornell Capital--and take the drug to his son's (Oren Hirschman) company--OHRP.

    The drug, Reticulose, never completed a properly designed clinical trial, but the well documented anecdotal evidence of its effectiveness attracted investors and speculators and provided the liquidity necessary for an under capitalized company to raise capital through dilutive financings.

    Your research delineating other similar situations that ORHP was involved in further suggests that this "business model" of hype and raising money for management's paychecks and bonuses continues to this day.

    Mar 28, 2015. 12:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: A Cheap Cigar Butt? [View article]
    The only PSEC investor who has done well is the one who sold at the right times. A long term chart will see a number of times when the stock go hit and recovered. But the problem is that PSEC is developing a reputation for poor management, high management fees and an artificially high dividend to maintain a shareholder base. PSEC's dividend is beginning to look like a Return of Capital.
    Mar 28, 2015. 12:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ohr Pharmaceutical: Undervalued Biotech Set To Possibly Challenge Regeneron's Eylea Drug [View article]
    Anyone who knows the history of Dr. Shalom Hirschman and Advanced Viral Research (ADVR) knows to stay away from this company. Dr. Hirschman was CEO of ADVR fifteen years ago and ran the company into the ground. Mismanaged to the extreme. Dr. Hirschman orchestrated the sale of ADVR's drug, Reticulose, to OHRP (his son's company) from the toxic financier that HE had chosen--Cornell Capital- which owned the assets of the company he bankrupted.

    Speculators and traders can make money on these type of investments. Hype and greed is a powerful combination and often can result in hard to justify increases in stock price. There is no dispute that OHRP has used stock promoters in the past. And so called investment bank analysts, like Roth Capital, have inherent conflicts of interest that are often not disclosed. How one justifies a $30 target price AFTER these clinical trial results is beyond me.

    But if you want to try to make money based on the "Greater Fool Theory"--buying a stock at a foolish price in the hopes that a greater fool will buy your stock at an even higher price--- enjoy your run at the craps table.
    Mar 27, 2015. 11:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: The Bottom Is In And It Is Time To Add Stocks [View article]
    What would the catalyst be for a further selloff of CHK with Icahn in there?
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
137 Comments
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