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David Guarino

 
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  • Lululemon - Quick, Cover Your Shorts! [View article]
    Renmy,

    You are correct that the company does lease a substantial amount of their retail locations, however they are making acquisitions of real estate. To add further clarity to what Seth Golden pointed out in his response, see page 23 of the recent 10-Q filing (http://bit.ly/R4Q4Tr)

    "The cash used in investing activities for the first three quarters of fiscal 2011 included $65.1 million plus acquisition-related costs for the purchase of our principal executive and administrative offices."
    Dec 19, 2012. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon - Quick, Cover Your Shorts! [View article]
    Spice,

    Thanks for the reply. To quote myself:
    "Short sellers have been targeting this company for years, and although the stock has seen short term periods of price depreciation, the long term upward trend remains intact."

    You are correct regarding the decline from earlier this year, however the majority of selling pressure came from rumors of David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Hedge Fund initiating a short position. This rumor appears to be incorrect and shares promptly traded back to the recent highs. If you were lucky enough to catch the sell off, then well done. But for most investors I doubt this was the case. Bottom line is regardless of short term sell offs, the long term upward trend is in place and this poses a challenge for investors wanting to go short LULU.
    Dec 19, 2012. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bumpy Road Of Retail Properties Of America [View article]
    boiler01,

    Sorry to hear about the losses, but sounds like the recent IPO buy helped out a bit.
    2008 has hopefully taught us all the benefits of a well diversified portfolio of securities.

    -David Guarino
    Dec 12, 2012. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bumpy Road Of Retail Properties Of America [View article]
    Brad,

    Thanks for the reply, I agree with all the points you made.

    Regarding the NAV of this REIT, I do not rely heavily on this number due to the fact that we are attempting to value the security based upon future cash flows, not just equity alone. NAV just looks at Assets minus Liabilities and provides only a current snapshot of what the company is worth upon liquidation. Additionally, many balance sheet items (such as property values) are subject to managements estimations of current values.

    I think part of the reason the market has discounted the shares so heavily is because it values this REIT differently when traded on a public market. What I mean by this is that when REIT's are private they are required to revalue shares every 18 months. This revaluation is subject to managements estimations regarding property values, cash flows, intangible assets (these can include managements expertise), etc. It appears that the market was not pleased at all with Inland's valuation techniques, and thus a share price around $3 before reverse splits was given.

    Your concern about the $12 share price is valid, this REIT still has to prove itself in an uncertain environment. Comparing to this REIT to others as you suggested would be the best bet in evaluating the current share price. This may be slightly challenging as RPAI is disposing of certain assets and has commented that it intends to continue doing so. Depending on your outlook for retail properties and investment goals/time horizon would determine whether or not this investment makes sense.

    -David Guarino
    Dec 12, 2012. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour: An Investor's Guide [View article]
    Thomas,
    You make a good point regarding the low levels of operating cash flow. One point I would urge you to consider is the point on the business life cycle that Under Armour currently operates. They are still rapidly expanding and one characteristic of these companies can be lowered operating cash flows due inventory purchases and extending credit to new customers (a great way to promote your brand). Both of these situations apply directly to Under Armour over the past few years.
    Regarding your point about products manufactured overseas, I tend do invest based upon profitability, not product manufacturing location. I have never heard of a stock going down because they found a way to control costs.
    Nov 13, 2012. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour: An Investor's Guide [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Sounds like you have made some good money with Under Armour.
    Well done.
    Nov 13, 2012. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Investors Buy Into NetApp For These Reasons [View article]
    Good article, I couldn't agree more (http://seekingalpha.co...).
    I wasn't aware of certain hedge fund managers taking positions in the company. Thanks for pointing that out.
    Nov 9, 2012. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of eBay's Drop In EPS [View article]
    You make a great point about factoring in capital reserves. I certainly think that these should be taken into consideration when evaluating a company, but it should be noted that these are one time events and not a part of normal business operations. If I am buying a company today, I am concerned with their earnings power in the future. Skype will no longer add to the bottom line so I don't want to factor that into my projections. To analyze the growth trend of eBay's core businesses you need to strip out irregular income statement line items.
    Thanks for your comments and for pointing out the typo error, I will have that corrected.
    Nov 6, 2012. 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of eBay's Drop In EPS [View article]
    Thanks for the post. You can click "Follow" towards the top of the page if you wish to receive all my posts by email.
    Nov 6, 2012. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of eBay's Drop In EPS [View article]
    Appreciate the post. Thanks!
    Nov 6, 2012. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Double-Digit Returns For Dick's Sporting Goods [View article]
    Todd,
    Great question. It is hard to determine especially looking quarter over quarter because the company reports a consolidated same store sales and then breaks up each segment; Dicks, Golf Galaxy, and eCommerce. eCommerce is growing rapidly and will absolutely help margins, although it could take away from same store sales at Dick's as customers move spending habits to the web. Additionally the company is working on a inventory management system that should help control costs, margins should improve from this as well.

    Management is projecting consolidated same store sales to increase approximately 2 to 3% in the current fiscal year, this companies with a 2.0% increase in fiscal 2011. I think a conservative estimate would be 2% for the next two years.
    Nov 2, 2012. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Microsoft A Value Trap? [View article]
    evildog,
    Thanks for pointing that out. My apologies to the readers. $63 billion is the correct number.
    Oct 10, 2012. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Microsoft A Value Trap? [View article]
    nklipper,
    Thanks for taking the time to comment. I certainly hope my estimates are conservative and your theory is correct. No one complains with outsized returns!
    Oct 10, 2012. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee: Bet Against The Herd [View article]
    Coffee234,
    Thanks for the comments. As I mentioned above the line-up of coffee that Green Mountain distributes has a tremendous opportunity to reach various vendors (hotel/hospitality included). Starbucks will only be selling one brand, and that may turn some customers away.
    Sep 27, 2012. 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee: Bet Against The Herd [View article]
    mark,
    Thanks for the comments, glad to see other investors are moving away from the herd.
    Sep 27, 2012. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
63 Comments
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