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David Huston

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  • Rolls Royce: Robust Demand From Civil Aerospace Will Offset Declining Defense Spending [View article]
    Cheers for the kind words and tip. I think you're right about building up a position rather than trying to buy all at once. I just got paid today so can hopefully can still get in at a decent price, may have the weekend to think about it. Cheers David
    Feb 27 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolls Royce: Robust Demand From Civil Aerospace Will Offset Declining Defense Spending [View article]
    Great article, thank you.

    I am just about to press the "buy" button here, although a small part of me thinks there is more to drop yet. The company is sound and has huge room for growth.
    Feb 21 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth Potential In The Uranium Industry [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I'd like to hear more about the surplus supply, as nobody has access to that information or seems willing to discuss it. If Japan decides to only open 5-10 reactors there will actually be a surplus as the uranium destined for the other 35 reactors gets routed elsewhere. India and Japan have been in talks about sharing knowledge in this area and it is possible that the supply will shift to other reactors.
    Also get what the thrust of your argument is, however, Cameco has lowered forecasts for production and suggests that there will be little to NO growth in the medium term. Paladin has shut production altogether.
    I'm a die hard advocate of uranium and also invested, however I'd suggest prospect investors avoid getting n simply because the commodity is set for a (to quote some) "wild ride higher in 2014"
    Feb 15 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth Potential In The Uranium Industry [View article]
    That sounds plausible, but its not correct - pouring concrete over Fukushima is not a simple solution that will fix the problem.

    .......either that, or you're much a,after than hundreds of nuclear physicists. I'd suggest the former is true!
    Feb 15 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing Carclo PLC, A Unique Technology Company [View article]
    Thanks for the article, I'm very interested in Carclo too, as it has the rare combination of 1) high growth rate, 2) sharp and irrational share price drop, and 3) insider buying after a hard fall. There are a lot of people under water here who should be doubling or tripling their stakes, but they tend to be too risk averse after a fall. I don't tend to buy in this category but am willing to make an exception!
    Feb 8 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adding Perspective On The Stock Market Sell-Off [View article]
    Great article - I think you absolutely nailed it in point 1: people have far too much of their portfolios allocated to equities. The market in 2014 is likely to see several sudden sell-offs as we head into a period where people expect the overwhelming returns of 2013 to be replicated. That's a worry because as Shiller points out (who won the noble prize in economics for this reason no doubt!) we are already far above the historic PE10 for stocks. Several key studies suggest that the five-year-period following this event will have little, or negative returns from stocks. People shouldn't be selling, they should be re-thinking their allocation and take on less risk. It amazes me when you read Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance and see how the analogies of Dot Com apply today: Bit Coins? Overvalued companies like Tesla and Netflix? People buying stocks because of hot tips? Massive bets using complex derivatives and options, plus margin? The cycle will repeat in the next five years. Just nobody knows when!
    Jan 26 04:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Larry Swedroe Positions For 2014: Risky Equities Always Trump Chasing Yield [View article]
    Here here Larry - this kind of attitude is the reason people make money in the market. As Shiller points out in Irrational Exuberance, there are countless others out there that prefer not to base their decisions on facts and figures, but rather feeling and instinct.

    Great article - I've got a lot to learn about getting the right mix of stocks/bonds, currently just have stocks and cash.
    Dec 25 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Dead-Cat Bounce - A Dead-Serious Warning From Uranium [View article]
    Dec 25 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Dead-Cat Bounce - A Dead-Serious Warning From Uranium [View article]
    Not sure how many people have actually read the 20 page report quoted, but it clear states on page 11 that the end of Megatonnes to Megawatts, the restarts in Japan, and years of uranium stock piles: "(...) Further, production from Cameco’s Cigar Lake Project will commence shortly, with production estimated to top out at 18.1 million pounds of U3O8 by 2019. These headwinds make it difficult to argue for immediate material upward uranium price movements." The article actually suggests that there is no immediate catalyst for uranium prices going higher, it doesn't suggest that these factors will lead to an immediate rise in prices as the author suggests.

    Even if you're a "chartist" you can see that the last several depressions in the spot price of uranium lasted for years. The oversupply is there, and the Russian deal has already been replaced by a deal to match most of the supply.
    Dec 25 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Nuclear Energy Stocks Could Be Next To Soar Like The Solar Sector [View article]
    A lot of comments on here seem to be straying from the fundamental point: should we invest in uranium companies.
    See my previous article, I agree with most of your conclusions, but believe CCJ is fairly priced under $17. The risk/reward at $20+ is simply not worth it. It is entirely possible that, like in 2012, and 2013, uranium will continue to drop and hold down the prices of uranium companies. Wy rush in? I just keep watching the spot price of uranium. When it hits $40/lb I can buy into CCJ or any firm with a lot less risk. Right now, however, it is still dropping.
    Dec 15 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Nuclear Energy Stocks Could Be Next To Soar Like The Solar Sector [View article]
    Unfortunately, that's a very linear way of thinking, that fails to appreciate the effect of bioaccumulation. Toxins in the food chain tend to accumulate and have a much bigger effect (of several magnitudes) when they reach the mouths of predators such as humans. See the effect DDT and mercury have had in recent decades.
    Dec 15 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Near-Term Catalysts To Push Uranium Prices Higher [View article]
    Doesn't the chart also show how long the uranium price took to recover previously?

    As in previous articles I suggest that investors follow the cautious path and not invest until the spot price recovers, as it could be months, but also many years before it does.
    Dec 11 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seven Reasons The Uranium Price Is Making A Powerful Move Higher [View article]
    As much as it pains me to say it, as I've argued elsewhere, I think more caution needs to be taken when deciding whether to invest in uranium at today's price. I read a similar article to this about four months ago and the author argued the exact same things as you - and the spot price fell a further $5/lb since then. Im pro uranium however Ive heard the "invest now" argument too many times before in the commodity space. Calling the bottom of uranium is impossible, so I'd suggest potential investors wait until the spot price of uranium begins to recover before investing. My entry point is around $42/lb, whether it takes months or years to recover. Bear in mind that URA etf has been dropping since 2011 - you might get lucky by buying today, but you could just as easily lose another 20-30% before uranium spot price heads north. Why gamble, when you stand to lose so little by waiting ?
    Dec 7 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom's Discount Seems Extreme [View article]
    Here here - he's just a common troll, who fails to realise how fortunate we are that a CFA freely takes time to share his views on the market for everyone to see. If you don't like Gazprom don't buy it and just move on!
    Oct 6 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom's Discount Seems Extreme [View article]
    Thanks Stephen for the article - really insightful and helps to understand the story (albeit a tricky one) behind Russian energy companies like Gazprom.
    However, I wonder what your view is specifically on the FCF and financial situation of the company, as surely if you're suggesting that this is undervalued by the wider market there must be figures to support this.
    I'm also long STO - I think one irrational issue investors have with Statoil is the annual dividend - which is fine by me as I get two or three opportunities a year to top up holdings. Are you suggesting perhaps that Gazprom and STO also have the whole state-owned stigma attached, thus driving down attraction to investors?
    Oct 6 07:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment