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David I. Templeton, CFA

 
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  • How To Profit From An Increase In Oil Prices When It Occurs [View article]
    drftr,

    Below is a link to the charts for 2009-2010 and the year 2014. XLE does outperform over the years you inquired about. Again, the shape of the future curve is important in the ultimate performance of USO.

    http://bit.ly/1vcEA5S

    David
    Jan 29, 2015. 11:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Oil And Gas Production Projected To Increase In February [View article]
    Benni,

    First, thanks for your comment. I do believe fracking technology will continue to improve (refracking) that will drive down the cost of extracting hydrocarbons in the various shale formations and provide access to additional energy resources within formally capped frack wells. To me a longer term issue is the decline rate for fracking fields and wells and the well life extension resulting from this newer technology. In the short run (over next several years?) this technology is likely to keep pressure on supply growth.

    David
    Jan 21, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Rebound In Third Quarter 2014 Buybacks [View article]
    pumpkins3,

    All data points are quarterly period figures and not cumulative.

    David
    Jan 1, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Market Decline Really A Rout? [View article]
    Deepv,

    I appreciate your commenting on the article. We do not believe the sky is falling as you noted in your earlier comment. As we noted in the opening of our article,

    "These dramatic headlines can cause investors to lose sight of the real market action, and more importantly, the potential direction of the market as one looks ahead. I would not argue with the fact that one market sector has "tumbled," the energy sector. Other than the energy and telecom sector, investors have enjoyed respectable returns to date in 2014. Also, the S&P 500 Index remains up 11.8% in 2014 through today's close. This double digit return is on top of the 32+% return for the S&P 500 Index in 2013."

    We believe investors must take a longer view of market/economy as the hour to hour gyrations can lead investors to make incorrect conclusions about the long term market direction.

    David
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Payers Return Trailing Non-Payers Through November [View article]
    adaireag,
    The return for the payers and non payers is the average return, i.e. not cap weighted. The index is capitalization weighted.

    David
    Dec 9, 2014. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Yield Investment Approach: The Best Of Both Worlds - Dividend Payers And Buyback Companies [View article]
    As noted in the S&P white paper (page 9), the Shareholder Yield portfolio contains a subset of both the buyback and dividend yield portfolio. The Shareholder Yield portfolio does not simply combine the buyback and dividend yield strategies.
    Dec 1, 2014. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Yield Investment Approach: The Best Of Both Worlds - Dividend Payers And Buyback Companies [View article]
    jgrever621: Thanks for your comment.

    The article's intent was to show that investing in companies that both pay a dividend (prefer a growing one) AND buyback their shares is a combination that results in an outperforming strategy. I obviously did not make this crystal clear in the article. This is S&P's shareholder yield portfolio in the first chart above. We have noted in prior comments on our blog that buybacks alone are least preferred compared to dividend growth stocks.

    http://bit.ly/12hk9qf

    David
    Nov 30, 2014. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lower Gas Prices Alone Do Not Equate To Higher Retail Spending [View article]
    Following is a link to a chart showing the PCE for gasoline versus the price of a gallon of gas. PCE appears to decline along with the fall in prices but not at the same rate.

    http://bit.ly/1uU2b90

    David
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Returns: Practically No Place To Hide [View article]
    Benni,

    I appreciate your reviewing our content and commenting. We have written numerous times about small caps overvaluation issue and the fact we eliminated our small cap exposure across client accounts in November 2013. There have been many articles written about the small cap performance issue. One today that you might find of interest:

    http://bit.ly/1E00Z7l

    http://bit.ly/1E011MC

    http://bit.ly/1E0122S

    At Horan we believe large cap stocks can continue to move higher looking out over the next six months in spite of the divergence in small cap performance. Is this a canary in the coal mine? Yes. But we do not think the canary is dead yet.

    David
    Oct 1, 2014. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Alternative Other Than Stocks [View article]
    The shrinking number of listed companies is important from the standpoint of supply and demand. If demand for stocks remains the same and the supply of available stock declines, then prices will gravitate higher, all else being equal. In the video I think Jason Trennert gives a pretty good analysis behind the decline in company listings. Certainly some companies have gone out of business since the dot.com bust. However, Trennert notes more and more private companies lack the desire to go public due to the cost of increased regulation. What is occurring is companies will sell themselves to private equity firms.

    (see chart: http://bit.ly/1s1Acjz)

    Additionally, the current environment has seen a pick up in M&A activity and this was cited in a recent report by Jeremy Grantham of GMO as well. This reduces stock supply. Increased M&A historically is an early late business cycle activity. Grantham and others believe we are in the middle innings of M&A in this cycle. Companies can deploy excess cash earning zero with the net result the acquisition will be accretive to corporate earnings.

    Regarding interest rate movement and stock prices when rates rise from a low level. JP Morgan has an interesting chart showing when rates rise from a low level, below 5%, stocks have a positive correlation to the direction of the rate move. Intuitively, this might make sense in that the Fed is simply moving rates back to a neutral level in order to have fire power in the event it is needed. When rates are increased at levels above 5%, this is generally a sign the Fed is attempting to slow down the economy. Maybe inflation is beginning to become an issue, tight capacity, higher wage growth etc. In this situation, the rate rise, when above 5%, likely would result in a slowing economy and as such slowing earnings growth which then leads to lower stock prices.

    Interest Rates and equities chart: http://bit.ly/1s1AfeZ

    Lastly, regarding equity values and GDP, Scott Grannis has a nice article discussing this and it is well worth the read.

    http://bit.ly/WH5vGT

    In short valuations by this measure are at levels similar to the early 1960s. He notes this was an environment "when inflation was low and stable and U.S. interest rates were low and stable, much as they are today."

    I hope this follow up is helpful.

    Kindest regards,
    David
    Aug 3, 2014. 04:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Much Awaited Market Pullback? [View article]
    I am not sure why this occurred. My best "guess" is indecision by investors in the face of the Fed getting closer to ending QE, i.e., rates beginning to normalize higher. I will note the 10-Year Treasury price actually opened below the close on Wednesday, i.e., the Wednesday's yield close was 2.554%. The open on Thursday was 2.569% and the closing yield was 2.556. So the bond's price actually closed higher than where it opened on Thursday showing some evidence of a move to safety. This can be seen with the black candle on the chart at the below link.

    http://bit.ly/1m9y85b

    Additionally, we saw bond strength on Friday with the 10-year treasury yield ending Friday at 2.505%
    Aug 2, 2014. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Market May Simply Be Under Owned [View article]
    Maybe volume is not declining. Some believe the volume has simply moved to other investment vehicles, i.e., futures and options. See interesting article at below link.

    http://bit.ly/WH6TJC
    Jul 25, 2014. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Market May Simply Be Under Owned [View article]
    Michael,

    Our firm does not take large sector bets in implementing our individual stock strategy for clients. Having said this we have had an overweight to energy (13+% versus S&P sector weighting of almost 11%). Several weeks ago we trimmed our SLB holding by 1% so had a 14% energy weighting until then. We have liked the drillers and have owned WLL (exploration and production) since early May. We like technology and have owned MU and added to it at the same time we reduced SLB. We do like MLPs (using MLPN) but have been reducing it on strength.

    We have increased investment allocations within the alternative investment category by increasing exposure to an absolute return fund (GTEYX) and a long/short fund (BPIRX). Our firm's approach in the alternative space has been to focus more on alternative strategies that have more equity like characteristics versus fixed income characteristics. This has worked well for our clients over the last 3-4 years.

    Late last year we added to a couple REITs as they sold off hard (probably tax loss harvesting) as the 10-year Treasury hit 3%.

    I hope this provides some insight into our current thinking.

    David
    Jul 25, 2014. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Market May Simply Be Under Owned [View article]
    Below is a link to commentary regarding market value as a percentage of GDP. Maybe not so overvalued after all?

    http://bit.ly/WH5vGT
    Jul 25, 2014. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10-Year Annualized Equity Returns Remain Below Average [View article]
    Christopher,

    I was able to quickly pull together a chart of real and nominal returns for the S&P 500 Index going starting with 1935. Following is the chart link.

    http://bit.ly/1lpMHQF
    Jun 29, 2014. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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