Seeking Alpha

David I. Templeton, CFA

 
View as an RSS Feed
View David I. Templeton, CFA's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Dividend Payers Trumping Non-Payers Through October [View article]
    Large caps have been dragging down the index. Stocks like Exxon and P&G for example have been underperformers. I wrote a post on equal weighted portfolios that you might find of interest.

    disciplinedinvesting.b...

    Note, our firm is long XOM and PG.
    Nov 3 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons to Be Bullish on the Market Now [View article]
    The S&P 500/market decline from the April 2010 high of 1,218 to the July low of 1,027 was over 15%. When looking at the chart using weekly time patterns, the H&S pattern is still present as well.
    Oct 20 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Might Be Anticipating an Improvement in Consumer Confidence [View article]
    Thanks for the typo alert. Must have been a fat finger. I fixed the date on our blog.
    Oct 6 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation More of a Threat Than Deflation: More Investors Increasing Bond Allocation [View article]
    With a lot of excess capacity globally, price pressures could remain in check. On the other hand, inflation at the Producer level (PPI) for finished goods has increased at a 4.2% rate over the past year through July.

    disciplinedinvesting.b...

    Some improvement in consumer sentiment could stimulate demand and thus place upward pressure on prices. Undoubtedly, the economic data has been mixed and this is making it difficult to project the future direction of the economy.
    Sep 19 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation More of a Threat Than Deflation: More Investors Increasing Bond Allocation [View article]
    Aaron,

    Good catch on the support/resistance use. Wrote the post hurriedly Friday afternoon.
    Sep 18 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation and Equity Valuations [View article]
    At the end of the day, I think inflation is driven largely by demand, i.e., consumer demand. Certainly, there is the prospects for stagflation, but inflation gets passed on when consumers' demand is increasing and they believe their income prospects are more stable.

    On the other hand, baby boomers are finding they have not saved enough or made enough on their investments over the last 10+ years. The result has been a higher savings rate recently at the expense of spending. At what point does deferred consumer purchases represent pent up demand and thus enable companies the ability to pass on higher cost via higher selling prices? I do believe the sentiment factor changes to a more positive towards the end of the year.
    Sep 13 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does a Change in Control of Congress Affect the Market? [View article]
    bananaman,

    Just an FYI, but many of the titles on Seekingalpha are written by seekingalpha staff. The title on my original blog post on our blog did not contain the error you noted in your comment. Maybe the SeekingAlpha editors will see your post.

    disciplinedinvesting.b...
    Aug 30 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Supply, Velocity and Economic Growth [View article]
    The QTM model is what assumes supply is fixed in the short run. Given the economy's move to a more just in time manufacturing structure, I believe the model's supply assumption is a limitation. Having said this, an increase in supply would not necessarily be bad as it would be indicative of potentially higher demand. i.e., an increase in consumer spending.
    Aug 30 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Supply, Velocity and Economic Growth [View article]
    M2 is actually climbing. It resumed its growth around May. If you click the below link and then click on a shorter time period, you will be able to see the recent growth.

    research.stlouisfed.or...
    Aug 28 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings in Q2 Still Strong [View article]
    Certainly agree there are some dark clouds on the horizon; however, I am not convinced it turns into a storm just yet though. Revenue growth for Q2 was 10% with the energy sector revenue growth at 28%. Ex-energy, revenue growth is 7% with 443 companies already reporting earnings.
    Aug 8 07:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sitting on Cash? That's Likely to Reduce Overall Investment Returns [View article]
    nmelendez. I do appreciate your comment as it does provide insight into additional topics to cover. I am not sure where in the article I said this was a buy and hold market. I received similiar comments from posts I wrote in early March of 2009 as well. In short, I do think there are better investment opportunities in other asset classes besides cash. For investors looking to build positions in long equities there are compaines trading at low valuations that should provide investors with rewarding returns over the next 3-5 years. Can the market go lower..of course. So if one does not have a 3-5 year investment horizon their funds should not be put at risk in the market.
    Jul 5 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Think Stocks Will Rise [View article]
    Greg,

    I agree with your thought process. As has been said, "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
    Jun 2 06:25 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Indicators That Markets Could Be Oversold [View article]
    What is interesting is to look at are reader comments to articles posted in March through May of 2009.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    May 31 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does May 2010 = March 2009? [View article]
    tunaman,

    The title to the orginal blog post on my blog is "Does May 2010 Lead to a Repeat of March 2009." In other words, is the last several trading days a precursor to a market that resembles the the decline that ran into the end of 2008 and into the 1st quarter of 2009.

    The content of my article and the point of it is an investor should reassess their asset allocation and comfort level with equities. Everyones situation is different so this isn't necessarily a buy or sell opportunity at the moment. What is important is investors should never use panic as an investment approach.
    May 7 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Buybacks Are Good, Dividends Would Be Better [View article]
    The philosophy behind a dividend growth strategy is not necessarily the focus on income generation, but the commitment a company is making to an increasing dividend. Companies that can commit to say double digit annual dividend increases and all else being equal, then earnings, stock price, etc will grow at the same rate. In companies that are committed to dividend growth, sometimes this forces other ratios to fall out of line if a company's future prospects are weakening. For example, if a company is borrowing to pay the dividend then the leverage ratio will be increasing.

    David Kelly, chief market strategist for J.P. Morgan Funds noted in a recent strategy article what the impact of higher taxes will have on stock prices, "using a number of broad assumptions, the value of the average stock should be reduced by one quarter of 10.4% or 2.6%—not good obviously, but also not an overwhelming reason to avoid stocks after a 12 month period in which they rose by over 70% and still appear undervalued."

    disciplinedinvesting.b...

    So in the end, if one is invested in dividend paying stocks for just the income, then certainly higher taxes will not be favorable for after tax income. On the other hand, if one is invested in dividend growth stocks for total return, I believe the discipline behind a dividend growth strategy is still one that will reward investors with a higher risk adjusted return portfolio.
    Apr 19 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
130 Comments
73 Likes