David I. Templeton

Tobin's 'Q' Shows Market Is Still Cheap

Try that link again:

disciplinedinvesting.b...


On Oct 01 07:28 PM David I. Templeton wrote:

> I had a reader to my blog provide a scatter chart of Tobin's q and
> the S&P 500 Index. The chart can be viewed at the below link:
>
>
> Tobin's q and The S&P 500 Scatter Chart

Tobin's 'Q' Shows Market Is Still Cheap

I had a reader to my blog provide a scatter chart of Tobin's q and the S&P 500 Index. The chart can be viewed at the below link:

Tobin's q and The S&P 500 Scatter Chart


On Oct 01 09:21 AM Baboon wrote:

> In order to assess better the practical significance of q ratio (
> buy when it's historically low and sell when it's historically high)
> one needs to see the above chart overlaid with SP500 index.

Where Will All the Sidelined Cash Be Invested?

The demographic issue could be a significant one as it relates to future investments that are recipients of cash flows into the market.


On Jul 20 05:13 PM Old Trader wrote:

> I wonder when/if we'll see a shift in allocations from equities to
> fixed income as boomers are starting to hit retirement age. I suppose
> the "greedier" ones may increase risk, in an effort to make back
> what's been lost over the last year, or so (an ill-advised gambit,
> imo), but I'd think some will migrate to either fixed income, or
> else equities that are considered more as a yield plays (REITs, MLPs,
> utilities, possibly telecoms).

Bearish Sentiment and Market in Denial Phase

OT,

That is correct. Individual investors were the least bullish (large negative bull/bear spread) in March of this year. This has been the case at other market low points. Conversely, they tend to be the most bullish at market tops. As Warren Buffett once said, "be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."


On Jul 17 09:23 AM Old Trader wrote:

> To be honest, I haven't done the research to confirm it for myself,
> but I've often heard it said that the AAII sentiment numbers are
> a contrairian indicator.

Why Are Employment Numbers So Bad?

This article was not written by me; thus, I did not publish it in the first place.


On Jul 03 08:21 AM Michigan Mama wrote:

> Yes, there is likely more to the story. Why did you even bother publishing
> this?

81 Dividend Growers to Consider

I do not think ROE or coverage can be looked at on a standalone basis. ROE provides an investor with a GAAP looked at earnings return while coverage provides some insight into the quality of the company's actual "cash flow". An important aspect of dividend growth investing is it does provide a window into the cash flow quality of a company.


On Jun 26 08:29 AM Living4Dividends wrote:

> Hi - terrific article - I like the focus on dividend safety and dividend
> supportability (dividend coverage).
>
> Question: The dividend coverage ratio is the classically used gold
> standard for predicting dividend safety. David - A while ago you
> published a terrific article that said ROE was a good predictor of
> dividend safety.
>
> Because I am an income investor, I am very interested in dividend
> safety. David - In your opinion, which is better, ROE or coverage?
> Have you seen any studies to support a conclusion?
>
> I

81 Dividend Growers to Consider

Esstentially the dividend payout ratio is less than 50% based on 2009 and 2010 earnings estimates.


On Jun 24 08:18 AM BlueOkie wrote:

> 2009 estimated coverage and 2010 ratio of at least 2-to-1 (based
> on street estimates divided by the current 12 month indicated dividend
> rate)
>
>
> I have no idea what this means

Yes, The Market Is Overbought, But...

If one is a trader and the market is oversold, in recoveries off the bottom, the rising tide tends to lift all boats. We are likely past the point where a majority of stocks move higher from a socalled oversold bounce. Fundamentals win out in the long run, but technical factors can distort the fundamentals in the short term.


On Apr 30 10:23 AM Caveat M. Tor wrote:

> You state, "Now is the time to be selective in the stocks that are
> being purchased. There are companies trading at attractive values,
> but paying attention to stock fundamentals and dividend characteristics
> are important at this juncture in the market."
>
> Is there any time when this ISN'T true?

Dividend Stocks Raising Payments in a Rising Market

DGI,

I couldn't agree more with your comment:

"...dividend investing and investing in general is a long term process, not a matter of timing the intraday ticks on the S&P 500."

There are still some dividend growth gems in this market environment.

Beware 'Dividend Aristocrats' that Actually Offer Low Yields, No Real Income

One key to focusing on dividend growth stocks is the disciplined used in selecting these types of investments. It is not so much the yield one should look at but the dividend growth characteristics of the company.

Companies that grow their dividend every year feel compelled to maintain this growth in good times and bad. This enables an investor to look at other financial factors of the company that might signal company operating problems going forward. For example, if a company is using debt to maintain the dividend growth, the debt ratios may get out of whack. Additionally, looking at the payout ratio might signal earnings issues in the near term.

So using a dividend growth process enables investors to uncover potential problems that may be on the horizon; thus enabling an investor to may be exit the stock before a price decline in the future. Blindly investing simply for income by looking at high yielders can be a recipe for disaster. These high yielders may have business issues which result in stock price depreciation or a future dividend cut.

History Indicates a Bottom

See title in original article on my site.


On Feb 11 04:18 PM Marcap wrote:

> My eyesight may not be what it use to be, but I fail to see 'any'
> question in your article, rhetorical, implied or otherwise. Perhaps
> someone else can see that which I could not. Or are we all expected
> to see that which is simply not there?
>
> On Feb 11 03:14 PM David I. Templeton wrote:

History Indicates a Bottom

I actually did not call a bottom as the SeekingAlpha title is slightly different from the one I posted on my blog. From a pure technical perspective I asked the rhetorical question if this time in history is similar to those in the past as many seem to think this is similar to the Great Depression.

Stimulus Bill: Half Pork?

here is the list. Feel free to add them up.

bennelson.senate.gov/n...;

Following are a few pork items.

$600 million for government fleet vehicles
$650 million for digital TV converter box coupons
$ 21 million to re-sod the Washington monument National Mall
Millions spent for safe sex programs in schools



On Feb 09 07:38 AM Herbert Hoover wrote:

> Your headline is entirely misleading. While you seem adamant that
> "half the money is pork" thee is nothing in your post that proves
> your contention. Merely stating your premise does not prove it.

U.S. Government Debt/Deficit: A Disaster in the Making?

The source is noted in the "Source" footnote at the end of the article. The link will take you to the St. Louis Federal Reserve site and the longer article.

www.stlouisfed.org/pub...

David


On Jan 13 10:40 AM benevolent dictator wrote:

> Mr. Templeton,
> Could you please sight your sources for the above graphs? According
> to David Walker, former head of the General Accountability Office
> (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), the future obligations of medicare
> are 3 times higher for 2020 and current federal debt is at least
> 90% of GDP ( the Feds contribution is becoming a greater percentage
> of that GDP thereby nonproductive or socialized GDP) than you have
> shown.

Ten 'Good News' Charts on U.S. Economy

GNE,
Nice article. The mainstream media has a tendency to ignore what the crowd is not following. This is an example of the media being a contrarian indicator. Once the market/economy turnaround (after the fact) the media will be all over the type of information you have presented here.

DT