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David I. Templeton

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  • U.S. Equity Market Entering Euphoric Phase? [View article]
    Our firm's best guesstimate is we continue to see higher equity prices. A market pullback in the 10% range would not surprise us though. This pullback may come from a higher level though.

    http://bit.ly/JDX5sU

    David
    Jan 6 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market After The Rally Year [View article]
    Hasschultz. Just FYI. Capital gain tax is based on trade date and not the settlement date. To push a gain tax into 2015, the trade would need to occur on the first trading day of 2014.

    David
    Dec 29 09:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Job Openings Continue To Increase [View article]
    NeedMoreCoffee,
    I agree with most of what you wrote in your comment. The infrastructure thought would certainly go a long way. My concern is the implementation of these programs. In 2009 Congress passed an $840 billion stimulus package which many now conclude was wasted on green energy jobs that did not last. Effective oversight of these stimulus programs would be a must, but not sure how that is accomplished in a dysfunctional political environment in Washington, DC.

    David
    Dec 28 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Funding Entitlements With An Ever Increasing Government Debt Burden [View article]
    "First, we take out the debt to the Fed, which isn't debt at all but a record of debt that has been repaid by printing money."

    Debt to the Fed isn't debt?
    Oct 13 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Funding Entitlements With An Ever Increasing Government Debt Burden [View article]
    LJK,

    If I understand your comment, then the government can issue debt to the Fed to infinity and we can simply print more currency with no consequences? Greece comes to mind here.

    http://n.pr/19E6byW

    Just curious how long this can continue from your perspective.

    David
    Oct 13 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A Myth: Triple Net Lease REITs Aren't Bonds, They Are Becoming A Core Asset Class For Income Investors [View article]
    Investors may find the white paper on REITs at the below link of interest:

    REIT Stocks: an Underutilized Portfolio Diversifier.

    http://bit.ly/1bIL3Yh
    Oct 5 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It QE, Dividends Or Buybacks That Determine Market's Future Direction? [View article]
    philohipis,

    There are definitely some excess (deleveraging attempt) being unwound. There is certainly a tight rope being walked.You may find this recent Ray Dalio video of interest.

    http://bit.ly/18k0NAb

    David
    Sep 22 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Payers Outperforming S&P 500 Index But Not The Equal Weighted Non Payers [View article]
    412 pay and 88 do not.
    Sep 8 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Earnings Above Or Below Trend? [View article]
    Mick,

    You raise an important question. The tough part is investing is maybe more an art than science. I do not think logs are necessarily better than slopes when looking at chart analysis. Both methods have faults. I simply believe it is important to compare log data to arithmetic data in longer time series.

    David
    Aug 18 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Payers Underperforming Non-Payers For First 6 Months Of The Year [View article]
    The point of the article is for those bond investors that are buying dividend paying stocks as a substitute, be careful and don't buy payers blindly. Would one rather own Celgene (CELG) trading at a forward PE of 23 and growing earnings 18-20% a year with no dividend or ADP trading at 25 times earnings and growing earnings 7-9% a year.

    For the record our firm is long both CELG and ADP.
    Jul 18 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Remember Those 2 Week Market Declines? [View article]
    Northstate,

    I do believe the market needs a bit of a breather given its strong advance YTD. Unfortunately, the bears have not been able to exert any control AND the Fed liquidity pumping is most likely having some positive influence on the market. Having said this, much is being made about the downside break in the diamond pattern that had been forming since early/mid May.

    http://bit.ly/11kLqEw

    This is certainly a bearish breakdown, however, downside momentum would need to be maintained. If that were to occur, you can see from the chart at the above link that downside could take the market to the bottom of the trend channel we have been traveling since November of last year. Also, this would "fill the gap" created during the first two trading days of May.

    Lastly, seasonally, the first few trading days of June tend to be positive, I think Charles Kirk at kirkreport.com states it best when he states the first trading day of June could be a "June Jumper"

    http://bit.ly/14lxgAN

    Lastly, the Fed's POMO schedule for June shows active liquidity injections during the month. A they saying goes, "don't fight the fed". Maybe that is the case here.

    http://bit.ly/bwlr02

    Lastly, you might find the below technical analysis of interest.

    http://bit.ly/12YCH9f


    David
    Jun 2 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Consequences Of Leveraged Investments Is Unfolding [View article]
    TWP,

    I will answer your question in general and somewhat simplistic terms.

    You ask a good question and there isn't a simple answer. Without knowing the specifics of your bond, i.e., maturity, call features etc., one measure that is important for bond investors is convexity (the other is duration.) Convexity gives insight into how much a bonds duration changes as yields change. All else being equal, the higher the bond coupon, the lower the convexity. As convexity decreases, the bond's exposure to interst rate movements decreases. In other words, in a rising interest rate environment, one often hears the mantra to buy premium bonds in a rising rate scenario as the price will hold up better (still decline) than say a zero coupon bond. The opposite is true if one believes rates will decline.

    David
    May 30 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Consequences Of Leveraged Investments Is Unfolding [View article]
    As market interest rates begin to rise borrowing cost rises as well. The 10-year treasury has gone from 1.60 to over 2% in a little over a month. Freddie Mac reports fixed rate mortgage rates at their highest level in a year.

    http://bit.ly/16sK9zU

    Many commercial loans are tied to Libor and some of those adjustments/resets occur over a 90 day or so period.

    With market interest rates moving higher, banks are going to get in front of a potential rise in funding cost. When market rates move higher, banks are quick to pass along this increase. They are slow to reduce them when rates fall.
    May 30 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Difficult Point In The Market Cycle For Investors To Navigate [View article]
    I will just say seekingingalpha changed the titled from what appeared on our blog. A seekingalpha writer's title with light market experience maybe. :)

    David
    May 19 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tired Bull Market [View article]
    Simo,

    Taken in combination (ETFs and mutual funds) equity flows really did not pick up until this year. From a contrarian perspective this would be a positive development that investors have remained cautious on stocks.

    http://bit.ly/13dAEgs

    Of late though, in Q1, investors are more favorale to equities.

    http://yhoo.it/10HLeAA
    May 13 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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