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David Jackson

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  • America's Demographic Collapse And Your Stock Portfolio [View instapost]
    "Declining birthrate = soaring stock market" seems counter-intuitive. For example, why would sharply rising wages lead to higher corporate profits and thus stock prices?

    Can you explain more?
    Apr 19 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Numbers Show That Box CEO Aaron Levie Is A Genius [View article]
    This is a key point, Jay. My sense is that some SaaS products (like Salesforce.com and CornerstoneOnDemand) achieve customer stickiness through:
    1. feature customization
    2. customer integration with other software products;
    3. the difficulty of moving data which the customer has input from one provider to another.

    But it's less obvious how storage services like Box or Dropbox achieve customer lock in.
    Apr 18 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends: The Tractionless Economy [View article]
    Wonder what has happened to the total amount paid out as dividends. Perhaps that's a better economic indicator than the number of companies cutting their dividend.
    Apr 11 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Mobile, Everything Is Still Wide Open [View article]
    Very different perspective from Chris Dixon:

    "Apps are heavily controlled by the dominant app stores owners, Apple and Google. Google and Apple control what apps are allowed to exist, how apps are built, what apps get promoted, and charge a 30% tax on revenues.

    Most worrisome: they reject entire classes of apps without stated reasons or allowing for recourse (e.g. Apple has rejected all apps related to Bitcoin). The open architecture of the web led to an incredible era of experimentation. Many startups are controversial when they are first founded. What if AOL or some other central gatekeeper had controlled the web, and developers had to ask permission to create Google, Youtube, eBay, Paypal, Wikipedia, Twitter, Facebook, etc. Sadly, this is where we’re headed on mobile."

    His full post is here: http://bit.ly/1hWPMtN
    Apr 8 07:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Emulating DuckDuckGo Search Results? [View instapost]
    Interesting post, Shlomo; thank you.

    I use Disconnect Search -- any thoughts on that vs. DuckDuckGo?
    Mar 29 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simply Buy The Dividend Aristocrats And Perhaps Beat The Market [View article]
    Dale,

    If your goal is to beat the market, you could have chosen many ETFs, some of which have outperformed the Aristocrats. For example, small caps have significantly beaten the S&P 500. See http://seekingalpha.co...

    So why choose the Dividend Aristocrats specifically?
    Mar 25 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simply Buy The Dividend Aristocrats And Perhaps Beat The Market [View article]
    The fact that it's equal-weighted is crucial. Other equal-weight ETFs also beat the market cap weighted S&P 500, for example the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP).

    SA contributor Ploutos is really good on RSP: http://bit.ly/1dsau5j
    Mar 25 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trish Regan, Einhorn Apologist [View article]
    Re. Seeking Alpha "has been very, very quiet on the topic":

    Last week:
    Why Seeking Alpha Embraces Pseudonymity http://seekingalpha.co...

    And today:
    Seeking Alpha And David Einhorn: The Real Story
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 24 06:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind The Scenes With Dream Team, CytRx And Galena [View article]
    James, in addition to Land of Milk and Honey's points above, I'd add:

    1. Academic research has proved that the comments on Seeking Alpha (which are largely written under pseudonyms) are extremely valuable, as measured by their ability to predictive future stock prices. Moreover, when comments and articles are in conflict with each other, the comments have higher predictive value than the articles. See: http://bit.ly/Oq2qpO

    2. Research on blog comments generally has shown that pseudonyms lead to higher quality comments. See: http://bit.ly/Oq2o1j

    3. See also the Electronic Frontier Foundation's case for pseudonyms: http://bit.ly/Oq2qpP
    Mar 14 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind The Scenes With Dream Team, CytRx And Galena [View article]
    James, one additional thought about how we could curtail manipulative comments.

    It's clear that the stock promotion firms behave in unethical ways:
    - They masquerade as investors without disclosing that they are actually being paid by the company. (Thus DreamTeam's "Message Board Team".)
    - They run websites with names that suggest they are purely in the interest of investors, when in fact those websites are platforms for promotion. For example, DreamTeamGroup's "Quality Stocks", "Stocks To Buy Now", "Home Run Stocks", "Tiny Gems", "Touch Down Stocks" and others here http://bit.ly/1iIpJEP

    However, they seem to stop short of explicitly lying. I suspect the reason is that they're concerned about the legal exposure of lying.

    So, if we required all commenters to agree to terms of service that if you are being paid to comment, you agree not to do so without explicitly disclosing it in each commment, my guess is that would block many of the promotors from commenting.

    Thoughts?
    Mar 14 04:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind The Scenes With Dream Team, CytRx And Galena [View article]
    James, I think there's a lot we can do on the platform to flag suspicious commenters. I'm sure that if we mine the data we can find patterns, which might include: commenting consistently on the same stocks and no others, short average comment length, and being consistently bullish. Others which might be harder to identify using technology might include attacks on the author rather than discussion of the substantive issues, and having a user photo which is a young woman :-)
    Mar 14 03:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind The Scenes With Dream Team, CytRx And Galena [View article]
    Wonder whether any of the DreamTeamGroup "Message Board Team" or "Social Networking Team" are among the commenters on this article? See: http://bit.ly/1iHl2uY

    Also, there's a list of companies (presumably clients) in the right hand column of their blog that might be of interest to SA readers: http://bit.ly/1iHl2v2

    FYI: I have no position in either stock.
    Mar 13 10:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing designs self-destructing smartphone [View news story]
    If you click on the grey comment link below a commenter's name, you can see their prior comments and which stocks they've commented on. The list of tickers at the top of the page allows you to filter the person's comments by specific stocks.

    You'll notice that some of the people in this discussion only comment on Blackberry, and their comments are consistently positive. For example, perryy has only ever commented on Blackberry.

    What should one make of that?
    Feb 28 02:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing designs self-destructing smartphone [View news story]
    This actually proves the power of Google's business model. By providing Android to other hardware providers, Google ends up penetrating all sorts of niche markets which Apple can't address with its integrated hardware-software model.
    Feb 27 10:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The 'Mean Reversion' Focus Can Be A Costly Blunder [View article]
    BTW, I agree that there's been a change in fundamentals which has led to higher profit margins. There are two factors:

    1. Better communication has supercharged globalization, resulting in lower labor costs as tons of new jobs have moved to China, India and other low labor cost countries. This explains not only why profit margins have risen, but also why average wages in the US and Europe have stagnated.

    2. The internet has provided companies with massive distribution and sales leverage, if they're good enough to rise above the noise. Yesterday's WhatsApp news highlights this: a team of 50 people run a product that is used by 400 million people, and is adding a million users per day. This means that the business world has become a meritocracy on steroids: if you're *really* good, the opportunities are unlimited, and don't require massive capital.
    Feb 20 05:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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