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David Jackson

 
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  • The Bar Mitzvah Portfolio: Five Long Term Winners [View article]
    Scott, excellent and thought provoking article; thank you.

    I wonder whether the key factor in picking instruments for such a long term portfolio (I'm assuming you're not going to adjust the portfolio until it's time to liquidate it) is ensuring that your choices will maintain their competitive position 10 years from now. And while that might be the case for McDonalds, Sears and Goldman Sachs, I just don't have confidence that you can make that sort of call with tech stocks like Google and Apple.

    A litmus test:

    <b>What tech stocks would you have picked 10 years ago?</b> Perhaps Netscape or @Home. Remember them? Netscape was the clear leader in the browser market -- the future of the whole Internet -- and @Home was going to own the high speed infrastructure for the US internet. Definitely not Apple (look at the chart and what people were saying about it 10 years ago!) or Google (it wasn't public).

    How did the tech stocks subsequently perform that "felt" as good 10 years ago as Apple and Google do today? Not well. This illustrates the challenge facing people who try to pick individual tech stocks for long term portfolios, described in more detail in The Problem With Tech Stocks.

    Additionally, your portfolio is all US stocks. But GDP growth is currently and projected to be much faster in emerging markets than it is in the US. And with high US consumer debt, a chronic budget and current account deficit, it's not clear that exposure to the US consumer (Apple and Sears, and perhaps also McDonalds) in more than 2/5ths of the portfolio makes sense.

    The bottom line:
    - for a portfolio of this duration, I think you'd have much lower risk picking ETFs instead of individual stocks.
    - once you're picking ETFs, perhaps you should allocate more exposure to foreign stocks than you have here.

    David
    Apr 22, 2007. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Broad Emerging Market ETFs [View article]
    Quick question for ETF readers: One thing I wasn't clear enough on when I wrote this was: why use single country ETFs instead of a broad emerging market ETF? Is the only reason if you think that you can beat the broad index by picking a country? Or there's a benefit from rebalancing? What other reasons are there to avoid these ETFs in favor of single country ETFs? Thoughts appreciated!
    Apr 20, 2007. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Foreign Exposure: Mutual Funds vs. EFA? Neither... [View article]
    Hi Roger,

    Isn't the reason why Canada has outperformed because of its concentration in energy? In other words, iShares Canada (EWC) doesn't really give you foreign exposure; it's more like an Energy sector ETF.

    On Australia, Norway and Ireland: what makes you like them so much relative to other countries?

    David
    Apr 19, 2007. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Replacing Barclays iShares Bond ETFs With Vanguard's New Bond ETFs [View article]
    Thanks J.D. -- really helpful. How do you assess whether an extra 0.3% income is worth the increased risk of an extra year's duration?
    David
    Apr 17, 2007. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Replacing Barclays iShares Bond ETFs With Vanguard's New Bond ETFs [View article]
    J.D, Thanks for a good article.

    According to the info on Barclay's website, SHY has a weighted average maturity of 1.87 years and an average yield to maturity of 4.8%. In the article you said that BSV has a weighted average maturity of 2.7 years and an average yield to maturity of 4.8%.

    Do you think the extra risk of the longer average maturity is worth it, given the identical average yields to maturity?
    Apr 17, 2007. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quant Strategy Sector ETFs [View article]
    Have we missed out any ETFs here or made any mistakes? Or any Seeking Alpha articles that are important to understanding them that we haven't mentioned? If so, please leave a comment and let us know!
    Apr 16, 2007. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged Market Cap ETFs [View article]
    Thanks Roger! That's really helpful.
    David
    Apr 16, 2007. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • International Dividend ETFs [View article]
    Have we missed out any ETFs here? Or any Seeking Alpha articles that are important to understanding them? If so, please leave a comment and let us know!
    Apr 16, 2007. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged Sector ETFs [View article]
    Have we missed out any ETFs here? Or any Seeking Alpha articles that are important to understanding them? If so, please leave a comment and let us know!
    Apr 16, 2007. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged Market Cap ETFs [View article]
    Have we missed out any ETFs here? Or any Seeking Alpha articles that are important to understanding them? If so, please leave a comment and let us know!
    Apr 16, 2007. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Guide to Healthcare, Pharma and Biotech ETFs [View article]
    Have we missed out any ETFs here? Or any Seeking Alpha articles that are important to understanding them? If so, please leave a comment and let us know!
    Apr 16, 2007. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For International Bond ETFs [View article]
    Totally agree with your comments about the need for foreign bond ETFs.

    But it's still not clear why it's taken the ETF providers so long to bring out international bond ETFs. You would have thought they'd have come out before the currency ETFs, no?
    Apr 16, 2007. 05:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's 2007 Analyst Roundtable, Part 1 [View article]
    It's really fascinating the way that Art Samberg -- historically a huge tech bull -- has so little technology among his stock picks.
    Apr 15, 2007. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interactive Q&A: Jeffrey L. Feldman, Creator of HealthShares and Founder and Chairman of XShares Group LLC [View article]
    FYI for readers:

    ProFunds provides inverse ETFs (ETFs that provide the opposite performance to an index, so if the index rises the ETF falls -- a short bet), leveraged ETFs (ETFs that provide twice the performance of an index, so if the index rises by 1% the ETF rises by 2%), and short leveraged ETFs (if the index rises by 1%, the ETF falls by 2% -- a strong short bet). The ProFunds family includes inverse and leveraged ETFs covering the main indexes, growth and value, and individual sectors.

    You can find articles on the ProFunds ETFs here.
    Apr 13, 2007. 01:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interactive Q&A: Jeffrey L. Feldman, Creator of HealthShares and Founder and Chairman of XShares Group LLC [View article]
    Jeff, two quick follow-ups if I may on the overall ETF industry.

    -- What do you think the impact on the mutual fund industry will be of ETFs?

    -- How profitable do you think the ETF industry will be?

    Many thanks,
    David Jackson
    Apr 12, 2007. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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