Lou, I wanted to let you know that I edited your comment on Seeking Alpha. I didn't change the substance of what you wrote, but I did remove the language that bordered on a personal attack.
In case you didn't know, the rules of commenting on Seeking Alpha are that you can disagree with what authors write, but you may not attack them personally. That way we'll keep Seeking Alpha to a standard higher than some better known message boards.
Is GM Stalling With Renault-Nissan Alliance? [View article]
Thanks David; these suggestions are helpful. A couple of questions: - how useful do you find the WSJ Summaries? - do you read the One Page Summary regularly? - any other suggestions for how we can improve this?
No problem! I actually thought that the points you and Jeff made about valuation and the impact of the Wal-Mart price cut were important. Good to have you commenting...
Jeff, I just wanted to let you know that I've edited your comment in a way that didn't change any of the points you made, but removed some of the unnecessarily aggressive language. The ground rules of commenting on Seeking Alpha are that no insults are allowed; if you disagree with an article, you can state that in your comment without a personal attack on the author.
Marc, I wanted to correct something in your comment. Eddy Elfenbein is not a Seeking Alpha analyst. Seeking Alpha has over 200 contributors, many of whom are money managers. It's important to understand that there are no "house" analysts, so the opinion of our contributors is just that -- their own opinions.
On WAG versus WMT on generic drug pricing -- did you see this: Walgreen Claims No Threat From Wal-Mart's Low Price Generic Drugs
Zecco To Offer Free Stock Trading - Threat to Online Brokers [View article]
Wells Fargo has been offering free trades to some of its customers for a while (see Wells Fargo aims at Schwab, TD Waterhouse, Ameritrade, E*Trade).
It doesn't seem to have had much effect yet. Perhaps once trades get to a certain low price, other factors may become more important: website functionality, execution, spread, and integration with banking.
As SBC & BellSouth Play Fiber Catch-Up With Verizon, Which Stocks Win? (BLS, VZ, SBC, ADCT, ALA, MOT, TLAB) [View article]
Sam, I'm really not sure about your contention that the RBOCs are winners here. Isn't this really a defensive move -- and a very expensive one at that? What kind of return on their investment from FTTH do you think they'll get? Arguably, the total cost of the TV + Internet Access + Voice bundle is falling, and this will just lead to more competition with the cable companies. The RBOCs will spend a ton on FTTx but will find their revenues still decline. The only winners I can see are the equipment vendors. I'm short all the RBOC stocks with shorts or puts.
How ETF Investing Has Changed in the Last Three Years [View article]
I totally agree with your point, Herb: the optimal rebalancing strategy is to rebalance based on deviations from target asset allocation, not periodic rebalancing. I mentioned the latter in this post because the issue for do-it-yourself investors is often not what is optimal but rather what is easy and doable.
And the key question for those who charge an asset-based fee for managed ETF accounts is: will the investor end up doing better AFTER FEES with a professionally managed account using optimal rebalancing versus a self-managed account with periodic rebalancing.
Are We in a Cyclical Bull or Cyclical Bear Market? [View article]
<blockquote>"Alm... every participant in the annual Businessweek survey that predicts the coming year for the market gets it wrong, so how is the same crew going to get it right for a period of many years?"</blockquote...
I'm not sure that's correct. It's arguably easier to predict the market's performance over a ten year period than over a one year period, as John Hussman and Jeremy Grantham often say. The reason? Over a one year period there's more volatility in sentiment and earnings, but over a ten year period the factors that determine the stock market's level (such as earnings growth) tend to revert to their long run growth rates.
Google Ad Click-Through Rates Rise From 18.5% to 19.3%, Citigroup Raises Estimates (GOOG) [View article]
Did Google really only add a third ad to its search results? Look at this - there seems to be an entire column of ads: Google search for "Real estate agent NY"
The New Yahoo Mail is Far Superior to Gmail (GOOG, YHOO) [View article]
I agree with the comment about folders. It's surprising that Walter Mossberg wouldn't recognize that it's not just Google that's moving away from folders to tagging plus search. Microsoft is planning that for its next OS, Apple has already implemented it, and tagging services like Delicious are growing rapidly.
Dislocation Between US and Foreign Markets? (ETFs: EWY, QQQQ) [View article]
Yes, this could be about currency issues. If the market is worried about inflation, that means that the real interest rate on the dollar isn't rising despite the fact that nominal rates are rising, so rising rates won't support the dollar. And the increased Federal spending after the hurricanes will further raise the budget deficit, which also increases the risk of inflation. One reaction to those risks is to increase allocation to foreign equities versus US equities.
The key question is whether the sell-side ratings reflect money still sitting on the sidelines or whether so much buy-side cash has already moved into the stock that the sell-side analysts are merely a lagging indicator of sentiment changes that have already happened.
What interests me here is that the sell-side is generally bad at guaging investor sentiment. Most sell-side initiation of coverage reports don't even attempt to assess the current sentiment in a stock, and often present a thesis that is already 'priced-in" as though it's new information. Looking only at other sell-side analysts' ratings seems to be a very limited sentiment guage.
Totally agree with you that the sell-side has been late on the stock and is still predominantly negative. But the key question is whether that is a valid sentiment indicator. The chart and recent performance suggest that the buy side views the stock very differently, and that the sell-side is just lagging in raising estimates and ratings.
Housing Weakness Good for REITs? [View article]
In case you didn't know, the rules of commenting on Seeking Alpha are that you can disagree with what authors write, but you may not attack them personally. That way we'll keep Seeking Alpha to a standard higher than some better known message boards.
Is GM Stalling With Renault-Nissan Alliance? [View article]
- how useful do you find the WSJ Summaries?
- do you read the One Page Summary regularly?
- any other suggestions for how we can improve this?
Walgreen is Still Too Expensive [View article]
Walgreen is Still Too Expensive [View article]
Marc, I wanted to correct something in your comment. Eddy Elfenbein is not a Seeking Alpha analyst. Seeking Alpha has over 200 contributors, many of whom are money managers. It's important to understand that there are no "house" analysts, so the opinion of our contributors is just that -- their own opinions.
On WAG versus WMT on generic drug pricing -- did you see this:
Walgreen Claims No Threat From Wal-Mart's Low Price Generic Drugs
Wal-Mart Management's Amazon.com Bluff Proves They're Astute Game Theorists [View article]
Zecco To Offer Free Stock Trading - Threat to Online Brokers [View article]
It doesn't seem to have had much effect yet. Perhaps once trades get to a certain low price, other factors may become more important: website functionality, execution, spread, and integration with banking.
As SBC & BellSouth Play Fiber Catch-Up With Verizon, Which Stocks Win? (BLS, VZ, SBC, ADCT, ALA, MOT, TLAB) [View article]
Evaluating EWL, the iShares Switzerland Index ETF [View article]
Are there any closed-end funds that cover Switzerland, and if so how do they compare to EWL?
How ETF Investing Has Changed in the Last Three Years [View article]
And the key question for those who charge an asset-based fee for managed ETF accounts is: will the investor end up doing better AFTER FEES with a professionally managed account using optimal rebalancing versus a self-managed account with periodic rebalancing.
Are We in a Cyclical Bull or Cyclical Bear Market? [View article]
I'm not sure that's correct. It's arguably easier to predict the market's performance over a ten year period than over a one year period, as John Hussman and Jeremy Grantham often say. The reason? Over a one year period there's more volatility in sentiment and earnings, but over a ten year period the factors that determine the stock market's level (such as earnings growth) tend to revert to their long run growth rates.
Google Ad Click-Through Rates Rise From 18.5% to 19.3%, Citigroup Raises Estimates (GOOG) [View article]
Google search for "Real estate agent NY"
The New Yahoo Mail is Far Superior to Gmail (GOOG, YHOO) [View article]
Dislocation Between US and Foreign Markets? (ETFs: EWY, QQQQ) [View article]
Pacific Growth Raises Netflix Estimates - Belatedly? (NFLX) [View article]
What interests me here is that the sell-side is generally bad at guaging investor sentiment. Most sell-side initiation of coverage reports don't even attempt to assess the current sentiment in a stock, and often present a thesis that is already 'priced-in" as though it's new information. Looking only at other sell-side analysts' ratings seems to be a very limited sentiment guage.
Pacific Growth Raises Netflix Estimates - Belatedly? (NFLX) [View article]