Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

David Jackson  

View David Jackson's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The "Incredible" Israeli Shekel [View article]
    Is the conclusion that the Israeli shekel will remain strong unless there's a conflict with Iran, and that the risk of that isn't sufficiently priced-in? Not sure whether the bottom line is that you're bullish or bearish on the shekel versus the dollar.
    May 13, 2007. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Blow To Newspapers: Facebook Classifieds [View article]
    Student rentals aren't a huge market. But the Web 2.0 wave is about <b>fragmentation into niche markets</b>, each of which aren't necessarily huge, but which in aggregate chip away at large, non-segmented markets. For example, look at how highly focused blogs on topics like gadgets, cell phones, startups and telecom/internet are chipping away at the broad audiences previously dominated by mainstream tech journalism.

    So you're right about the market size, but this is part of a broader trend that is highly significant. And I think Scott is right that social networking is a good platform for consumer to consumer transactions due to the trust issue.
    May 11, 2007. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Book Stocks To Watch [View article]
    I love these lists; they're helpful and fun. But I'm not sure the inference from Amazon's results is correct, and this particular list is risky because -- as you point out -- many of the stocks have substantial non-book businesses.

    Barnes and Noble (BKS), a better proxy for book demand as it's more of a "pure play", said on its recent conference call (see transcript):

    <blockquote>Sale... at Barnes &amp; Noble stores were $4.5 billion for the year up 2% over a year ago. </blockquote>

    Not so great.

    Furthermore, note that Amazon never singled out books as a growth area on its conference call (see transcript):

    <blockquote>In the North America segment, revenue grew 30% to $1.62 billion. Media revenue grew 21% to $990 million. EGM revenue grew 51% to $564 million, representing 35% of North America revenues, up from 30%. We saw another quarter of strong sales in electronics and revenue from soft goods, which includes jewellery, apparel, shoes and sporting goods, more than doubled year over year.

    Additionally, we are pleased with the early customer response to our grocery subscription service, which offers automated replenishment plus a 15% additional discount. Some of the most popular items for subscription include diapers, nutrition bars and coffee.</blockquote...

    Media sales include books, movies and music; we know that Amazon has taken share from other stores, so much of the growth might be market share gains, not market growth.

    You're right that many of these stocks are leveraged to their non-book business. Peason is dominated by the perceived value of the Financial Times. McGraw Hill owns S&P and Business Week, and its book business is leveraged to the educational market. (The detailed info is in McGraw Hill's conference call transcript.)

    And isn't Scholastic almost a pure bet on Harry Potter? See Paul Kedrosky's Investing in Harry Potter.
    May 3, 2007. 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Russia ETF: Heavy On Metals, Mining, Energy [View article]
    V interesting; thank you. Why is the BRIC ETF allocation to Russia so low?
    May 1, 2007. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newspaper Stocks Climb on Dow Jones Bid [View article]
    Dow Jones has unique content, powerful brands, excellent management and a significant online presence, factors which are not necessarily true for some of the other newspaper stocks. My guess is that some of these stocks will trade back down. Remember also that the Tribune bid was at a low premium, so the newspaper space generally isn't exactly a bidding battlefield.

    And look at what Bill Nygren recently wrote about newspaper stocks.

    Full disclosure: short LEE.
    May 1, 2007. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • News Corp. Offers $60/Share for Dow Jones [View article]
    Interesting that this is also pushing up the stocks of other newspaper companies with little online presence or financial content. I'm not sure that makes sense, because Dow Jones has unique content, powerful brands, excellent management and a significant online presence, factors which are not necessarily true for some of the other newspaper stocks.
    May 1, 2007. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Circuit City Revises Downward: Where Does That Leave Best Buy? [View article]
    And bad news for the entire flat panel food chain...
    May 1, 2007. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Israel Fund Jumps 10% - Discount To NAV Closing [View article]
    I seem to remember that ISL has some unusual holdings and sector concentration, and the expense ratio isn't cheap. It's odd that there's no Israel index ETF available.
    May 1, 2007. 05:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Guide to Currency ETFs and ETNs [View article]
    Roger Nusbaum made some really useful comments and corrections to me by email on this post. Those changes have now been incorporated. Many thanks, Roger.

    Have we missed out any ETFs here? Or any Seeking Alpha articles that are important to understanding them? If so, please leave a comment and let us know!
    May 1, 2007. 05:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Guide To U.S. Government Bond ETFs [View article]
    Have we missed out any ETFs here? Or any Seeking Alpha articles that are important to understanding them? If so, please leave a comment and let us know!
    May 1, 2007. 03:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Broad U.S. Bond ETFs [View article]
    Have we missed out any ETFs here? Or any Seeking Alpha articles that are important to understanding them? If so, please leave a comment and let us know!
    May 1, 2007. 03:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WellCare Health Plans' Day of Reckoning May Have Arrived [View article]
    This is helpful -- thanks.
    May 1, 2007. 03:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Russian ETF Comes With Risky Valuations [View article]
    Surprising that the overall valuation of the Russian stock market seems to assume so little political risk. My sense is that if there's a correction in the US market, emerging markets will take a real beating.
    May 1, 2007. 03:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia Closed-end Fund Rising Fast (CEF: TRF) [View article]
    Interested to hear whether you're swapping out of TRF for the new Russia ETF, RSX.
    May 1, 2007. 03:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harman International Looks Ready To Rock [View article]
    This was a great call: KKR and Goldman Capital Take Out Harman International Industries For $8 Billion.

    Congratulations!
    Apr 30, 2007. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,277 Comments
1,223 Likes