David Jackson

Five Key Quotes from Apple's Conference Call

optionsgirl, the market took the issue of Steve Jobs' health very seriously; I'm not agreeing with that, but hopefully providing some info on why. Jobs turned Apple around -- it was only when he returned to run Apple that it started its real recovery. So the Street views him as a key element in Apple's success, similar to Mark Hurd at HP and Jim Cramer's involvement with TheStreet.com.

Five Key Quotes from Apple's Conference Call

Hexman, the quotes aren't from the press release -- they're from the conference call transcript, which fewer people saw but contains a lot of key info.

Under The Radar News - Thursday

The FT article on laptop vendors is uncannily similar to this:
Asus Eee: Threat to Apple, Microsoft, HP, Dell and the Hard Drive Vendors?
seekingalpha.com/artic...

which Seeking Alpha readers got 20 days earlier.
:-)

Asus Eee: Threat to Apple, Microsoft, HP, Dell and the Hard Drive Vendors?

Monty, I'm not saying that this proves that Apple's laptop sales will be weak. In fact, the Apple stores I visited during the run up to the holidays were always mobbed.

I'm just saying that the Amazon lists are based on real data, so they shouldn't be ignored. At the very least, they require some thought and explanation, not a knee-jerk reaction.

Apple Cuts iPhone Price by $200, Introduces ‘Best iPod Ever’; Shares Fall 5%

CNBC said Apple's stock was down after the announcement because investors thought the lower priced iPhone would mean lower profits for Apple. But I'm not sure that makes sense: the lower priced iPhone should significantly expand the market and ultimately lead to greater profits. So I think you're right: the stock was down because investors bought ahead of the news and sold when the news was released. Which brings me to a wider point: these news briefs are really excellent, and it's wonderful to have you as a writer on Seeking Alpha, Roy. Little (or not so little) nuances like why Apple's stock sold off show that you really understand the stocks, not just the news stories.

The Options Scandal Hits Apple and CA, Equinix and Intuit

News is breaking now -- 10 months after this news brief was written -- that former Apple CFO Fred Anderson has issued a statement blaming Steve Jobs for backdated options grants. I still think that investors are underestimating the risk of the options issue to Apple's stock...

The Bar Mitzvah Portfolio: Five Long Term Winners

Scott, excellent and thought provoking article; thank you.

I wonder whether the key factor in picking instruments for such a long term portfolio (I'm assuming you're not going to adjust the portfolio until it's time to liquidate it) is ensuring that your choices will maintain their competitive position 10 years from now. And while that might be the case for McDonalds, Sears and Goldman Sachs, I just don't have confidence that you can make that sort of call with tech stocks like Google and Apple.

A litmus test:

<b>What tech stocks would you have picked 10 years ago?</b> Perhaps Netscape or @Home. Remember them? Netscape was the clear leader in the browser market -- the future of the whole Internet -- and @Home was going to own the high speed infrastructure for the US internet. Definitely not Apple (look at the chart and what people were saying about it 10 years ago!) or Google (it wasn't public).

How did the tech stocks subsequently perform that "felt" as good 10 years ago as Apple and Google do today? Not well. This illustrates the challenge facing people who try to pick individual tech stocks for long term portfolios, described in more detail in The Problem With Tech Stocks.

Additionally, your portfolio is all US stocks. But GDP growth is currently and projected to be much faster in emerging markets than it is in the US. And with high US consumer debt, a chronic budget and current account deficit, it's not clear that exposure to the US consumer (Apple and Sears, and perhaps also McDonalds) in more than 2/5ths of the portfolio makes sense.

The bottom line:
- for a portfolio of this duration, I think you'd have much lower risk picking ETFs instead of individual stocks.
- once you're picking ETFs, perhaps you should allocate more exposure to foreign stocks than you have here.

David

Apple's A Short In Light Of Sales Data

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iPhone: Who Stands To Gain and Lose?

Another winner: UBS put out a note saying that Broadcom (BRCM) is providing the circuit controller for the iPhone's touch pad.

Apple Unveils The iPhone

Beautiful.
Does anyone know who's selling components into this phone?

The iPhone Will Probably Be Released In 2007: Who Is Apple Up Against?

Also reported here:

Introducing The iPhone... From Cisco
ce.seekingalpha.com/ar...

BTW, there's a new category for the iPhone on Seeking Alpha:
seekingalpha.com/by/ty...

Apple May Not Give Guidance In Today's Report

Yup, we're really excited to have some of the highest profile finance bloggers provide their work to Seeking Alpha. As well as Herb, you'll also notice posts from Bambi Francisco and Frank Barnako on Internet and Media and Barron's Eric Savitz on technology.