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David Klein

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  • Windstream's Dividend: Is A Cut Looming? [View article]
    My recent article/analysis (March 3) shows a slightly improving FCF picture.
    Apr 3 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Level 3 Communications Taking Advantage Of The Opportunity Laid Before It? - Part 2 [View article]
    Added an option to open $LVLT interactive page in its own window for easier viewing & inputting @ http://bit.ly/1kOXwAE
    Mar 13 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Two-Faced, And One Is A Pathological Liar [View article]
    Thanks for another great article. Adding another interesting view as far as fear goes (which really reinforces what you said) in Benjamin Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor" updated with new commentary by Jason Zweig explains how fear can affect judgment. This excerpt starts on page 220.

    When stocks drop, that financial loss fires up your amygdale-the part of the brain that processes fear and anxiety and generates the famous “fight or flight” response that is common to all cornered animals. Just as you can’t keep our heart rate from rising if a fire alarm goes off, just as you can’t avoid flinching if a rattlesnake slithers onto your hiking path, you can’t help feeling fearful when stock prices are plunging.

    In fact, the brilliant psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky have shown that the pain of financial loss is more than twice as intense as the pleasure of an equivalent gain. Making $1,000 on a stock feels great-but a $1000 loss wields an emotional wallop more than twice as powerful. Losing money is so painful that many people, terrified at the prospect of any further loss, sell out near the bottom or refuse to buy more.
    Mar 7 05:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Frontier Communications Turned The Corner? [View article]
    By default it's also in Capex. I believe they said CAF related Capex in 2013 was about 33 million and I made no adjustments to back that number out. Their guidance for capital expenditures excluding expenditures related to integration activities & CAF is a range of $575 million to $625 million.
    Mar 5 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Frontier Communications Turned The Corner? [View article]
    Since CAF results are included in 2013 actual results, by default they are included going forward. I did not attempt to estimate how long the program would last although this assumes its on going. I did hold 2014 Capex constant through 2017 which ends up at about 14% of revenue which leans to the conservative side IMO. We'll see what later earnings releases bring.
    Mar 4 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Safe Is Windstream's Dividend? [View article]
    spinrbait, I agree that size cut is not built into the price should it occur. The yield would probably settle somewhere in the range where CTL & FTR are.
    Mar 3 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Safe Is Windstream's Dividend? [View article]
    Thank you D.Dust. I agree most if not all of the downside has been wrung out of this stock so it should hover around $8 although not much upside based on what is known at this point except for the dividend IMO.
    Mar 3 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Safe Is Windstream's Dividend? [View article]
    Yes, and I have said in several articles it was safe. What wasn't very safe was the price which has dropped about 30% since I started researching WIN, in part due to some of the issues discussed. Based on the first two comments I'm getting the impression that people are reading into the article that a dividend cut is imminent. Not sure how unless I'm off base in that view.
    Mar 3 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Frontier Communications Turned The Corner? [View article]
    Thank you AAAAmerican, hoping the trends will continue to improve.
    Feb 28 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Frontier Communications Turned The Corner? [View article]
    Hi cusip8, Everyone's financial situation and goals are different so I can't give or am licensed to give financial advice however I will agree that there is no chance of bankruptcy IMO. As far as Vanguard or other institutional holders I don't put any significance in this. I do put significance in group insider buying, i.e., if say 3 or more insiders made large purchases on the open market within a short span of time which has not been the case here. I have an article detailing this view at http://seekingalpha.co... if interested.
    Feb 27 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Frontier Communications Turned The Corner? [View article]
    Thank you Anasazi101, FWIW my fair value for FTR is 5.8. Updates to my current list is at: http://bit.ly/18XOSKM
    Additional research/data can be found by clicking the FTR tab at the top of the webpage at the link in this comment along with the link given in the article.
    Feb 26 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Frontier Communications Turned The Corner? [View article]
    Thank you gotincome and hope you're right. In the analysis I projected most being financed for the acquisition, hopefully it will be less, along with less interest.
    Feb 26 07:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Frontier Communications Turned The Corner? [View article]
    The investment world doesn't always revolve around the PE especially in the Telecom industry. The other part of the equation is cash flow. These companies with higher yields (CTL or WIN) for example revolve around cash flow. Another way to value these companies is through a discounted cash flow model. The problem 3 years ago was not the PE it was the plummeting cash generation which eventually fell below the dividend payout resulting in the first cut. Until they can show sustained FCF increases the yield will remain on the high side. If they can convince the market that cash flow problems are behind them the stock will rise regardless of the PE. This is one reason the stock spiked. That said IMO they are not there yet but things continue to improve. We'll see what future results bring.
    Feb 26 07:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Frontier Communications Turned The Corner? [View article]
    Thank you chazsf and I agree completely.
    Feb 26 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Frontier Communications Turned The Corner? [View article]
    Thank you Albert and hope this is a turning point. It's been a rough road for investors.
    Feb 26 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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597 Comments
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