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David Klein

 
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  • What Is The New Level 3 Communications Worth? [View article]
    I reviewed TWTC Q2 results and updated LVLT-TWTC pro-forma results and projections at links given in the article or below:
    pdf files: http://bit.ly/RVZZXu
    User interactive model: http://bit.ly/1kOXwAE
    Jul 30 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The New Level 3 Communications Worth? [View article]
    I stand corrected:
    http://yhoo.it/1n42yFv
    Jul 30 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The New Level 3 Communications Worth? [View article]
    Looks like twtelecom earnings are tomorrow, 7/31 pre-market, not today as posted on Yahoo Finance.
    http://bit.ly/1AzE1lS
    Jul 30 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The New Level 3 Communications Worth? [View article]
    Thank you Hardog
    Jul 25 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The New Level 3 Communications Worth? [View article]
    Hi Notrom, the management and sensitivity cases do not give effect to the mergers as I noted in the article. As you know I am conservative and my past analysis does include synergies. I produce financial statements (links in the article & below) where details including debt, interest, capex etc., can be reviewed.
    http://bit.ly/10BmdRN

    When forecasting over multiple years, information by its nature becomes less meaningful and predictive with each successive year due to the unpredictability of the underlying assumptions, estimates, macro events, etc., the further out you go. So I try to build in a margin of safety something Ben Graham called “the secret of sound investment” and “the central concept of investment” but now and then I still manage to incur loses even with this philosophy :)

    That said I think we are on the same page although you feel I am far too conservative. (others may think the opposite of LVLT's prospects). In any event even by my analysis the stock is trading at a discount to FV.
    Jul 25 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream: Why Investors Should Brace For A Dividend Cut [View article]
    When it comes to internet type plays then LVLT may be worth a look. No dividend but much more price appreciation potential then FTR, WIN etc. That said I hold both LVLT and FTR.
    Jul 17 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Level 3 Communications A Long-Term Gem In The Making [View article]
    Hello SGM, it's been a while. Are you kicking the tires on this one or did you nibble after our last exchange. In the past I thought there would be plenty of time to build a position but was surprised with the performance over the last 6 months. Thought it would be the 2nd half of 2014 before they started to show more meaningful results. The bad news is it moved before I completed a full position but not complaining. I was slowly building my position because I was waiting for the resolution of some of the tax issues which I thought would present a better buying opportunity. Those issues are still unresolved but if LVLT continues to exceed expectations the opportunity may not be as good as what I once thought. We'll see. Still looking to add on any significant pullback. Presently my target to add to my existing position is around $38 (I still demand a large discount to FV; I'm probably more conservative than most) but this could change based on future events.
    Hope things are going well.
    Jun 4 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Level 3 Communications A Long-Term Gem In The Making [View article]
    BlueS, That is not an unreasonable number. The $53 is based on a PE of 16 discounted from estimated 2019 earnings assuming mid to upper single digit revenue growth. If I change the PE to 18 on the interactive model at:
    http://bit.ly/1hfz0oX
    we come close to $60. Add to that dropping the discount rate from 8% to 6% drives the FV higher than $60. That said I try to stay on the conservative side since to say predicting the future of business can be a challenging task is an understatement, however visibility continues to improve and is clearer today than say a year ago. They certainly exceeded my expectations in Q1 driving the price slightly higher than the FV in the previous article. Hopefully the visibility will strengthen with each earnings report. The tax litigation issues will hit one of these days but getting that unknown behind them will be a positive, although it could cause a temporary bump in the road.
    May 5 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Level 3 Communications A Long-Term Gem In The Making [View article]
    Thank you Steve I appreciate the kind words.
    May 3 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Level 3 Communications A Long-Term Gem In The Making [View article]
    ChuckXX, I know I worked for Kiewit, long since retired. Sold all LVLT stock over time and was out around 2004 +- (some very good gains some not so good. The reverse split was 1:15. This is not the same company. New leadership, new model. Huge promises were made by those no longer employed at LVLT but yes many were hurt; some of which I knew.

    I made this my focus stock on my website last July (and yes started buying although I wish I had bought more but hindsight is 20-20) after the CEO was let go (officially retired, moved on, whatever the official reason) and at the same time a change in direction was announced which we now see in the results. I could be wrong but comparing the old days with today is like an apple to oranges comparison. I know there might be a few still holding who bought in at much higher prices 13-15 years ago but what is important is the opportunity at today's price going forward although I do understand there was a lot of ill will due to what happened and was said after 2001 by previous leadership.
    May 3 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Level 3 Communications A Long-Term Gem In The Making [View article]
    The latest enterprise revenue trend (red) is covered by the black trend line, it's there just hard to see. Just shows how consistent the trend is running over various periods.
    May 2 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream's Dividend: Is A Cut Looming? [View article]
    My recent article/analysis (March 3) shows a slightly improving FCF picture.
    Apr 3 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Level 3 Communications Taking Advantage Of The Opportunity Laid Before It? - Part 2 [View article]
    Added an option to open $LVLT interactive page in its own window for easier viewing & inputting @ http://bit.ly/1kOXwAE
    Mar 13 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Two-Faced, And One Is A Pathological Liar [View article]
    Thanks for another great article. Adding another interesting view as far as fear goes (which really reinforces what you said) in Benjamin Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor" updated with new commentary by Jason Zweig explains how fear can affect judgment. This excerpt starts on page 220.

    When stocks drop, that financial loss fires up your amygdale-the part of the brain that processes fear and anxiety and generates the famous “fight or flight” response that is common to all cornered animals. Just as you can’t keep our heart rate from rising if a fire alarm goes off, just as you can’t avoid flinching if a rattlesnake slithers onto your hiking path, you can’t help feeling fearful when stock prices are plunging.

    In fact, the brilliant psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky have shown that the pain of financial loss is more than twice as intense as the pleasure of an equivalent gain. Making $1,000 on a stock feels great-but a $1000 loss wields an emotional wallop more than twice as powerful. Losing money is so painful that many people, terrified at the prospect of any further loss, sell out near the bottom or refuse to buy more.
    Mar 7 05:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Frontier Communications Turned The Corner? [View article]
    By default it's also in Capex. I believe they said CAF related Capex in 2013 was about 33 million and I made no adjustments to back that number out. Their guidance for capital expenditures excluding expenditures related to integration activities & CAF is a range of $575 million to $625 million.
    Mar 5 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
608 Comments
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