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  • Has Revenue Growth Stalled At Level 3 Communications? [View article]
    Sunit Patel, executive vice president and chief financial officer said today at the Jefferies 2015 Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference that LVLT could start returning $ to shareholders next year if they don't see opportunities for high return on investment. He did not say in what form; buybacks, dividends (or I missed it), although I believe a large part of the 2016 FCF could go to servicing debt. Of course all this assumes high return investment opportunities do not use the cash instead.

    - Webcast accessed from: http://bit.ly/1ctlRu0
    May 12, 2015. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Revenue Growth Stalled At Level 3 Communications? [View article]
    The updated income statement is posted
    May 11, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Revenue Growth Stalled At Level 3 Communications? [View article]
    Hi professor, no it is not. The formula summed all four quarters when it should have averaged them. Thanks for catching that, I'll try and get SA to change it. My current diluted share count based on the recently filed 10-Q is 372m. The average count used for year end 2015 is 374.
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
    Basic 349 356 363 370 377
    Diluted 374 378 382 386 390

    I've updated the model since the article (increase in debt extinguishment) so some EPS numbers will be modified but not enough to change projected numbers, assuming I can upload the new table.
    May 10, 2015. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Revenue Growth Stalled At Level 3 Communications? [View article]
    Thank you Rubbergutz.
    May 7, 2015. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Revenue Growth Stalled At Level 3 Communications? [View article]
    Hi Ted and thanks for commenting. Another way to look at it is EPS CAGR from 2015-2019 is over 40% which should generate a very high PE. If I applied a modest PE (say) 18 to 2019 EPS then discounted this back to today using a discount rate of say 8% would produce an attractive FV.

    FCF CAGR is over 34% over the same period although not said in the article will eventually see the company start returning cash to shareholders sometime over this period; could be buybacks or dividends or both which adds to the attraction. I believe management has actually started to mention this as a possibility just did not put a time frame on it.

    That said I'm not saying you are wrong and I'm right, after all differing views is what makes the market. Fact is I don't know who will turn out to be right longer term which is why I update my analysis every quarter. This is just another view but the picture continues to improve based on my analysis over periods at the end of the article.

    I will note that LVLT could take a large hit in any correction since it pays no dividend and has a high debt load although any hit not related to the fundamentals would be an opportunity IMO.

    We'll see what future quarters hold.
    May 5, 2015. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Revenue Growth Stalled At Level 3 Communications? [View article]
    Thank you GRADPKS. Does is the PKS in your handle stand for Kiewit?
    May 5, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Eastman Chemical Close To A Long-Term Buy? [View article]
    Thank you, the kind words are appreciated.
    Apr 10, 2015. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Eastman Chemical Close To A Long-Term Buy? [View article]
    Any changes in EMN fair value going forward will be updated on this webpage:
    http://bit.ly/ABzISk
    Apr 9, 2015. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Eastman Chemical Close To A Long-Term Buy? [View article]
    Hi FcFrag and thanks for commenting. I think the reason it could be low is people may see it as dead money for 2015 due to the hedges and the uncertainty of how low oil may go or how strong the dollar will become. The big question is do we believe management when they say the hedge pressure will subside in 2016. I could not find details on the actual derivative contracts and my guess is they will not make them public so there is a little bit of faith here that they being straight with shareholders; also when it comes to acqusitions being accretive, if not then those old lows will become a reality pretty quick otherwise in a year the stock could provide good returns. We'll see.

    Those premiums are pretty good, I sold those puts back in Feb.
    Apr 7, 2015. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Eastman Chemical Close To A Long-Term Buy? [View article]
    Thank you xyz12.
    Apr 7, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Eastman Chemical Close To A Long-Term Buy? [View article]
    Hi Raj, if my FV is in the ballpark then you should be fine sometime in 2016, hopefully sooner but 2015 could be rough especially if the hedges turn against them more than they already have.
    Apr 7, 2015. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Eastman Chemical Close To A Long-Term Buy? [View article]
    Thanks for commenting TxGolfer57. My puts expire in June so if the stock trades below 67.5 I'll be long the stock, if not I'll write a few more contracts although if it hits 64 I'd probably just buy the stock.
    Apr 6, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Making These 5 Common Investing Mistakes [View article]
    Same here, #3 was one of the toughest to overcome.
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IIEX 1Q-2015 Newsletter [View instapost]
    Thank you DAG, your comments are always appreciated. I share your sentiments and I'm starting to think the Shiller PE will continue north of 30 before we see a correction. One thing I know for sure is there will be a correction. When? Not a clue.
    Mar 18, 2015. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Level 3 Communications: A Long Idea Still Priced At An Attractive Discount To Fair Value [View article]
    Hi Tom, you asked about two years back and I didn't have a good answer but here's the link:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I'll just add that with bandwidth growth growing stronger it's nice to have some empty conduits to take advantage of cheaper technology. Who knows with all the fear about hacking maybe some government agencies will find $$ to build there own secure system (probably never happen). Bottom line they are there ready for the next great idea, otherwise if never needed I think there is very little value but I suspect over time they will come in handy. When? Your guess is as good as mine. Also don't quote me on this since I could be wrong but didn't LVLT write off a few of these conduits a while back. Maybe someone else can add another perspective.
    Feb 8, 2015. 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
636 Comments
321 Likes