Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
bailinnumberguy, very true its anyone's guess when Apple will see $500. What we do know is things tend to be in Apples favor considering there is room for growth assuming the unit projections in the article end up close to reality.
Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
Hello PedroG, I agree Apple will eventually pay a dividend in the near future. I also think it will help the stock not only continuing to attract growth investors since growth is still in the picture but value investors which I consider myself.
If you clicked the link at the end of the article detailing financial data used you will see our own fair value is $594. My guess is the massive market cap my give pause for many investors so returning $$ to shareholders through dividends can only help IMO. One problem is about 65% of cash is overseas so any repatriation, if needed, in the future would encounter a huge tax bill. That said 35% is in the US and that is still a big nut.
Telular Flying Under Investors' Radar [View article]
Hello Al in Oregon, Great question. It actually had nothing to do with the housing bust. The surge in revenue back then was due to the FCC's Sunset policy. In short this policy set a date when spectrum that was being used for alarm transmissions would be eliminated. The telecom carriers backed this policy because they were spending $$ to support an older technology.
In the years leading up to the original deadline alarm companies fought the ruling and I believe the deadline was extended once to early 2008. The big alarm companies held off replacing equipment needed to move over to the new technology as they fought the ruling.
When it became clear the deadline was not going to be extended they rushed to replace the equipment. Telular already developed products to prepare for Sunset. I believe they were first to market. Equipment sales starting rising in 2006 then soared to 40m in 2007 and 28m in 2008 as alarm companies scrambled to replace old equipment.
The good news for Telular that if you use their equipment you must use their alarm service which is why their subscriber base went from 183,000 at the start of 07 to close to 400,000 by mid 2008.
This is when management (which was new) decided to change the strategic direction of the company to a high margin recurring revenue model. This article gives a little more depth on the management change: http://bit.ly/xi75C3
This link allows you to download financial results. The summary pdf file shows the breakdown of equipment sales etc by year. http://bit.ly/xKcntH
I have an excel file that brings in any open market trading off the web and plots the data if it shows group trading. The hard part is knowing where to look since I have to know what stocks to check. Its extremely rare I get a hit. I look at stocks I'm interested in and see what comes back.
A Closer Look Into Frontier Communications At Its 52-Week Low [View article]
Hello Crunching Numbers Just to clarify my comment, I look for a group to purchase in a 30 day time frame but that's just me. I did a study (article) a while back and this seemed to be a good indicator. That said I don't consider the CEO's purchase as token and when I saw it I was hoping it was the start of a group purchase in a time frame that I think would be meaningful. I did not mean to insinuate any insider buying might not be important just that I don't place much faith in it if it falls outside my own measuring metrics, but that is just my own personal preference. As you might say "To each his own"
You are right about the market and I think this is a make or break quarter.
A Closer Look Into Frontier Communications At Its 52-Week Low [View article]
I made this partial comment elsewhere but could it be a "tell"? 'At the UBS conference on 12/5 the CEO did not come out and say the dividend was safe as they usually have. She did not say it would be cut either but tended to defer to the board. ...Bottom line is when she had the opportunity to say the dividend was safe (as she has done so often in the past) she did not.'
I don't view insider buying as meaningful unless there is a group (3 or more) buying more than token amounts in the open market. In any event I think we will have our answer to the sustainability of the dividend when they present on 2/23. FCF must start trending up in Q4 and continue into 2012. We'll see.
Stock Valuation Using The Tweed Model [View article]
Norman, Thank you for the analysis. I've always struggled with divining the PE most representative of fair value. I've incorporated some of your logic into the PE module of my program to compare to other calculations.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Efrain, funny you should say that. I bought my windows phone from best buy but you are right when I looked at the main display with all the phones I did not see any windows phones. I asked about it and they showed me a separate display made especially for the windows phone. Had I not asked I may not have noticed it.
That said i like the phone. It is synced with my music, office apps, mail, skydrive and office365. Anyway that's all I really need although I have stock apps and some other fun stuff. When I bought it in July I did a quick write-up at: http://bit.ly/xsADeI
The software upgrades have been a major improvement since then. That said, even though its a very good product the head start android and apple have will be a challenge although MSFT doesn't have to be number one just make inroads.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Hello alpha5one, A severe recession would not be good news for any international company but MSFT has the financial clout to weather the storm better than most IMO. Depending on how severe and how long, assuming the worst case, is anyone's guess but I suspect the tech industry will probably do better than most other industries. Most of MSFT's income before taxes (about 2/3's) in FY2011 was international. Don't know what % is Europe. One positive is considering macro events haven't been great MSFT continues to grow the international operating income (24% in FY2011) over the last several years so my guess is this growth would slow until a recovery begins, again how much is just speculation.
Sorry for the non answer but it would be anyone's guess other than saying its not a positive in the short term.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Hello Cyber Investor, Skype would need to generate about 84m in earnings to move the scale by a penny. In the year ended 2010 after one time charges they earned about 6m. To answer the question; no effect.
Free cash flow was much higher at 124 million. Still peanuts compared to MSFT's size but in the right direction.
I think the real potential not just lies with Skype growing eps and fcf but how Skype can advance other MSFT products and initiatives. We'll see but this is a longer term view so I don't expect to see much, in any, benefit in the very short term.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Hello ConservativeOutperformer, Good point. As you say even breaking for this division even would add a lot to operating income. The operating income has been improving since the June qtr.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Hello pokalolo, It will be interesting to see how Skype is incorporated into other offerings, seems to be a lot of potential here.
As for Sprint and NOK I would not be a fan. The cost would be huge, say 30billion +- with premium and would amount to a huge distraction. I think they have enough on their plate for now. The partnership with NOK seems to be a better way to go but I've been wrong before.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Hello rdtuck02, I should have added that my philosophy is not predicated on ranges but what I think an investment is worth. The fair value calculation given above is $34 so I would not be writing calls at this point, nor puts. My personal entry and sell targets for stocks that show possible potential are listed on this page: http://bit.ly/ABzISk
Some might disagree with the entry targets as too low but I'm fairly conservative (I think) with my discounts but it seems to work in my case. In 2007 I was called out at $35 and considering history along with MSFT's performance since then I suspect it will be there again, especially if economic conditions improve over time.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Hello Chester the Income Investor, I've used options with MSFT to generate income with pretty good success over the years; selling puts as the stock approached my entry target and selling calls at the other end. The last time I was called out of the stock was 12/2007 but have been "put" back the stock over the years.
Although lately its only averaged a few trades a year but I am content to collect the dividend until opportunity presents itself in the future.
It's a strategy worth pursuing but only if one sticks to their targets even if opportunity does not present itself for a while. If I've learned anything in the market; it's patience
Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
If you clicked the link at the end of the article detailing financial data used you will see our own fair value is $594. My guess is the massive market cap my give pause for many investors so returning $$ to shareholders through dividends can only help IMO. One problem is about 65% of cash is overseas so any repatriation, if needed, in the future would encounter a huge tax bill. That said 35% is in the US and that is still a big nut.
Telular Flying Under Investors' Radar [View article]
In the years leading up to the original deadline alarm companies fought the ruling and I believe the deadline was extended once to early 2008. The big alarm companies held off replacing equipment needed to move over to the new technology as they fought the ruling.
When it became clear the deadline was not going to be extended they rushed to replace the equipment. Telular already developed products to prepare for Sunset. I believe they were first to market. Equipment sales starting rising in 2006 then soared to 40m in 2007 and 28m in 2008 as alarm companies scrambled to replace old equipment.
The good news for Telular that if you use their equipment you must use their alarm service which is why their subscriber base went from 183,000 at the start of 07 to close to 400,000 by mid 2008.
This is when management (which was new) decided to change the strategic direction of the company to a high margin recurring revenue model. This article gives a little more depth on the management change:
http://bit.ly/xi75C3
This link allows you to download financial results. The summary pdf file shows the breakdown of equipment sales etc by year.
http://bit.ly/xKcntH
Hope this answered the question
A Closer Look Into Frontier Communications At Its 52-Week Low [View article]
The article is at:
http://bit.ly/wr3NXr
I have an excel file that brings in any open market trading off the web and plots the data if it shows group trading. The hard part is knowing where to look since I have to know what stocks to check. Its extremely rare I get a hit. I look at stocks I'm interested in and see what comes back.
A Closer Look Into Frontier Communications At Its 52-Week Low [View article]
Just to clarify my comment, I look for a group to purchase in a 30 day time frame but that's just me. I did a study (article) a while back and this seemed to be a good indicator. That said I don't consider the CEO's purchase as token and when I saw it I was hoping it was the start of a group purchase in a time frame that I think would be meaningful. I did not mean to insinuate any insider buying might not be important just that I don't place much faith in it if it falls outside my own measuring metrics, but that is just my own personal preference. As you might say "To each his own"
You are right about the market and I think this is a make or break quarter.
A Closer Look Into Frontier Communications At Its 52-Week Low [View article]
'At the UBS conference on 12/5 the CEO did not come out and say the dividend was safe as they usually have. She did not say it would be cut either but tended to defer to the board. ...Bottom line is when she had the opportunity to say the dividend was safe (as she has done so often in the past) she did not.'
I don't view insider buying as meaningful unless there is a group (3 or more) buying more than token amounts in the open market. In any event I think we will have our answer to the sustainability of the dividend when they present on 2/23. FCF must start trending up in Q4 and continue into 2012. We'll see.
Stock Valuation Using The Tweed Model [View article]
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
That said i like the phone. It is synced with my music, office apps, mail, skydrive and office365. Anyway that's all I really need although I have stock apps and some other fun stuff. When I bought it in July I did a quick write-up at:
http://bit.ly/xsADeI
The software upgrades have been a major improvement since then. That said, even though its a very good product the head start android and apple have will be a challenge although MSFT doesn't have to be number one just make inroads.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Sorry for the non answer but it would be anyone's guess other than saying its not a positive in the short term.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Free cash flow was much higher at 124 million. Still peanuts compared to MSFT's size but in the right direction.
I think the real potential not just lies with Skype growing eps and fcf but how Skype can advance other MSFT products and initiatives. We'll see but this is a longer term view so I don't expect to see much, in any, benefit in the very short term.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
As for Sprint and NOK I would not be a fan. The cost would be huge, say 30billion +- with premium and would amount to a huge distraction. I think they have enough on their plate for now. The partnership with NOK seems to be a better way to go but I've been wrong before.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
http://bit.ly/ABzISk
Some might disagree with the entry targets as too low but I'm fairly conservative (I think) with my discounts but it seems to work in my case. In 2007 I was called out at $35 and considering history along with MSFT's performance since then I suspect it will be there again, especially if economic conditions improve over time.
Microsoft: Missing the Bigger Picture [View article]
Although lately its only averaged a few trades a year but I am content to collect the dividend until opportunity presents itself in the future.
It's a strategy worth pursuing but only if one sticks to their targets even if opportunity does not present itself for a while. If I've learned anything in the market; it's patience