Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
For a different take SeeThruEquity issued a WRLS report on 12/18 with a target price of $12.76. The report is free but one has to sign-up to download it.
Teva: A 'Show Me' Stock That May Show Patient Investors Profits [View article]
Toneguru, How do you get negative FCF?? FCF is cash from operations - capex. Last year was 3B; TTM for Q3 was about 3.3B.
Also from the 12/11 investor meeting: "So we believe that over the next 5 years, we will generate organically, this is the organic view, cash flow from operation of between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion per year. What are we going to do with this? What every company does, dedicate a pretty healthy part to business development, return cash to shareholders between $1 billion to $2 billion. I don't know if everybody realizes but in 2011 and in 2012, Teva has returned close to $2 billion per year to shareholder between our buyback program and dividend payments. And we're going to continue to do that. We will service our debt, dedicate about $1 billion to debt service, and we continue to invest in our infrastructure.
Windows 8 (MSFT) receives a big vote of confidence from the DoD, which says it will deploy the OS as part of a massive deal with Microsoft that covers nearly 75% of its ~450K personnel. Many enterprises and institutions have declared themselves uninterested in adopting Win. 8, whose new UI makes many IT departments uneasy. However, some IT security experts have argued the OS' new features, such as Refresh and Secure Boot, will make it more secure than Win. 7. Office 2013 and SharePoint are also covered by the deal. (PR) (Argus downgrade) [View news story]
Per the link given the DoD agreement also includes Microsoft Office 2013 and SharePoint 2013 Enterprise.
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
SGM, I see where dbtunr got the 9.2m in your post. Not sure where you get the 21m shares+ that the dividend will be based on. The 10-K states: "The number of shares outstanding of the registrant's Common Stock as of December 4, 2012, the latest practicable date, was 17,137,817 shares."
It is also important to note the following track record for cash from operations of 12.7m in 2012: Q1- 2.6m Q2 - 2.2m Q3 - 3.9m Q4 - 4.1m
Q1 and Q2 are no longer representative IMO based on second half results. A run rate for Q4 with no growth in all segments is $16.4m or using the last half (Q3 & Q4) the run rate is $16m. That said given the growth in recurring revs for Telguard and TankLink, 2013 should be higher than 16m. The only question is SkyBitz. The recuring rev for skybitz from Q3 to Q4 was flat (not down) so we'll have to wait and see what Q1 brings.
To go lower than 16m in 2013 SkyBitz would need to negate the growth in the other two units and management has already given 2013 EBITDA guidance so based on this it seems unlikely.
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
They are not paying 9.2m in dividends. The last q was 1.8m (see the cash flow statement in the 10-K or the historical data at: http://bit.ly/xKcntH ); adjust for the div increase of 9% going forward and it is about 2m/Q or $8m/year, this doesn't qualify as barely, not even close IMO but I guess that depends how one defines "barely".
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
SGM, I agree the volume of insider selling is a huge disappointment and if tax fears were the only reason then its reasonable to expect the Chair and CEO to buy back some stock now that they have locked the sales into 2011 tax rules but I'm having some doubts. It makes little sense if FV is much higher than today's price (unless they buy back in). What is not in doubt is the sales probably have many asking questions or waiting to see next Q's results before adding or buying.
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
dbtunr, when you say " they are barely covering the dividend with cash flow.", what are you referring to. You can see from the article (graph) that FCF easily covers the dividend. SkyBitz only represents a small portion of cash flow and EBITDA.
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
Isn't that revenue of $9/quarter/car (not per month or cash flow)?? From their CC: "The 30,000 units currently deployed would generate recurring revenue of approximately $270,000 per quarter over the next five years." http://seekingalpha.co...
It's still a very good deal for them but revenue is not cash flow and the revenue is $3/month/car. Did I miss something, did they say what margins they expect for this service?
Do they breakout any numbers for the AI division? Maybe they already talked but could not come to an agreement. I guess we'll never know.
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
IDSY numbers are from their filings with the SEC. If you are saying their SEC filings are incorrect? I'd be interested as to why. As far as SkyBitz the revenue expected back in 2011 when the purchase was announced in Dec 2011 was 35m. SkyBitz revenue in 4QFY2012 was 7.9m or a run rate of 31.6m so yes the numbers are smaller but the FCF and EBITDA numbers are positive. Read the transcript for the latest quarter available thru this site or linked to in the article above. Will they stay that way? We'll see but management is seeing growth going forward. If they turn negative or growth shrinks further then maybe they should sell this segment but as long as it generates cash, well that's a good thing.
Detailed financial data for Telular is linked in the above article.
There is insider selling and it's part of this thread a few comments above. Whether its because of the fiscal cliff (avoid higher taxes) or something else, I agree that it sends a terrible message.
As far as "poised to grow exponentially" maybe you should write a detailed article and have it published. I'm sure people would interested to see the bull case for IDSY.
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
Telular paid about 1.2x sales. A quick look at IDSY filings show negative FCF and the TTM FCF the highest (negative) its been in years. Net income has been negative since 2006.
EBITDA looks to be about a -2.2m for the TTM compared to a SkyBitz run rate EBITDA of +6m according to the CEO on the conference call.
If there is a price war I'm not sure what IDSY strategy is since they seem to be taking a beating and SkyBitz appears to be contributing positive FCF; not a lot but still positive.
This was a quick look at IDSY filings so maybe I am missing something,.
Neutrino23, maybe but the problem is what do "most people clearly want" or how is most defined? If it is 51% that's a problem i.e., a very divided nation. I think a major problem is reducing the debt. I would guess that close to 100% want this but most do not want to give anything up; like a "catch 22". I think taxes will go up on those making over 250,000 but not without major concessions regarding spending cuts and at present I don't see any give on the spending side. There seems to be more thinking that the only way to accomplish this is to take the medicine now and let the major spending cuts and tax increases for all take affect. What's that old saying, "Pay me now or pay me later". I hope both sides actually see the light and make the painful decisions that are necessary but I'm not holding my breath. We'll see.
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
http://bit.ly/URzgyk
Teva: A 'Show Me' Stock That May Show Patient Investors Profits [View article]
Also from the 12/11 investor meeting:
"So we believe that over the next 5 years, we will generate organically, this is the organic view, cash flow from operation of between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion per year. What are we going to do with this? What every company does, dedicate a pretty healthy part to business development, return cash to shareholders between $1 billion to $2 billion. I don't know if everybody realizes but in 2011 and in 2012, Teva has returned close to $2 billion per year to shareholder between our buyback program and dividend payments. And we're going to continue to do that. We will service our debt, dedicate about $1 billion to debt service, and we continue to invest in our infrastructure.
Windows 8 (MSFT) receives a big vote of confidence from the DoD, which says it will deploy the OS as part of a massive deal with Microsoft that covers nearly 75% of its ~450K personnel. Many enterprises and institutions have declared themselves uninterested in adopting Win. 8, whose new UI makes many IT departments uneasy. However, some IT security experts have argued the OS' new features, such as Refresh and Secure Boot, will make it more secure than Win. 7. Office 2013 and SharePoint are also covered by the deal. (PR) (Argus downgrade) [View news story]
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
http://bit.ly/10KrsDH
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Seeking Alpha Trading Survivor Contest [View instapost]
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
"The number of shares outstanding of the registrant's Common Stock as of December 4, 2012, the latest practicable date, was 17,137,817 shares."
It is also important to note the following track record for cash from operations of 12.7m in 2012:
Q1- 2.6m
Q2 - 2.2m
Q3 - 3.9m
Q4 - 4.1m
Q1 and Q2 are no longer representative IMO based on second half results. A run rate for Q4 with no growth in all segments is $16.4m or using the last half (Q3 & Q4) the run rate is $16m. That said given the growth in recurring revs for Telguard and TankLink, 2013 should be higher than 16m. The only question is SkyBitz. The recuring rev for skybitz from Q3 to Q4 was flat (not down) so we'll have to wait and see what Q1 brings.
To go lower than 16m in 2013 SkyBitz would need to negate the growth in the other two units and management has already given 2013 EBITDA guidance so based on this it seems unlikely.
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
"The 30,000 units currently deployed would generate recurring revenue of approximately $270,000 per quarter over the next five years."
http://seekingalpha.co...
It's still a very good deal for them but revenue is not cash flow and the revenue is $3/month/car. Did I miss something, did they say what margins they expect for this service?
Do they breakout any numbers for the AI division? Maybe they already talked but could not come to an agreement. I guess we'll never know.
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
Detailed financial data for Telular is linked in the above article.
There is insider selling and it's part of this thread a few comments above. Whether its because of the fiscal cliff (avoid higher taxes) or something else, I agree that it sends a terrible message.
As far as "poised to grow exponentially" maybe you should write a detailed article and have it published. I'm sure people would interested to see the bull case for IDSY.
Telular: A Value And Dividend Growth Story In The Making [View article]
EBITDA looks to be about a -2.2m for the TTM compared to a SkyBitz run rate EBITDA of +6m according to the CEO on the conference call.
If there is a price war I'm not sure what IDSY strategy is since they seem to be taking a beating and SkyBitz appears to be contributing positive FCF; not a lot but still positive.
This was a quick look at IDSY filings so maybe I am missing something,.
What Is Wrong With Apple? [View article]