Neutrino23, maybe but the problem is what do "most people clearly want" or how is most defined? If it is 51% that's a problem i.e., a very divided nation. I think a major problem is reducing the debt. I would guess that close to 100% want this but most do not want to give anything up; like a "catch 22". I think taxes will go up on those making over 250,000 but not without major concessions regarding spending cuts and at present I don't see any give on the spending side. There seems to be more thinking that the only way to accomplish this is to take the medicine now and let the major spending cuts and tax increases for all take affect. What's that old saying, "Pay me now or pay me later". I hope both sides actually see the light and make the painful decisions that are necessary but I'm not holding my breath. We'll see.
on another note "stocks that get no press, those are often valued fairly." That doesn't tend to be my experience. Fair value is often in the eye of the beholder. I follow one high yielder that gets no press that I think is more undervalued than AAPL. I wrote about at: http://seekingalpha.co... for those interested. But again, even for this unknown name I think next year's uncertainty will drive the stock down more by months end.
genomad, was there really uncertainly regarding competition for the iPad over the last few years? Didn't AAPL own this market? It's only now this fear is developing due to W8, yes,no? Then again is the drop due to fear of tougher competition or next year's tax/economic uncertainty? I think the latter carries a lot of weight but that is speculation at this point.
As far as "emotion charged", I agree; fear drives many decisions regardless of facts, fundamentals, etc. My hope is fear doesn't turn to wide spread market panic but then again just think of all the opportunities that would present themselves if history repeats and the market drops like a rock.
That said in better economic times I think the market will be large enough for AAPL, MSFT, GOOG and others, i.e., its not a zero sum game.
Richbar, I was surprised to see the 21% at the link posted since it was much higher than what I used in the valuation. Although valuations come down to per share metrics so the size of any stock repurchase program will also affect this rate.
Mktneutralhedger, I agree; don't see much reason to buy much of anything considering what appears to be total dysfunction coming out of Washington. The good news is next years uncertainty should be cleared up by months end....for better or worse.
Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
chr2, there was a time when I'd agree but Apple now has enough cash (and growing) that they can develop products, pay a dividend, buy back shares and do a few acquisitions along the way and still maintain a huge cash hoard and possibly even grow it over the long term. A dividend a red flag when looking at the financials, cash generation, etc? I don't see it.
Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
Rubicon59, I agree. From the CC: "We are actively discussing uses of our cash balance and don't have anything specific to announce today." Something is going to occur in the next Q or 2. Dividend? Buybacks? Acquisition?
It would not be the 1st time if Apple paid a dividend. Apple was a dividend payer in the past (1987-1995).
Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
bailinnumberguy, very true its anyone's guess when Apple will see $500. What we do know is things tend to be in Apples favor considering there is room for growth assuming the unit projections in the article end up close to reality.
Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
Hello PedroG, I agree Apple will eventually pay a dividend in the near future. I also think it will help the stock not only continuing to attract growth investors since growth is still in the picture but value investors which I consider myself.
If you clicked the link at the end of the article detailing financial data used you will see our own fair value is $594. My guess is the massive market cap my give pause for many investors so returning $$ to shareholders through dividends can only help IMO. One problem is about 65% of cash is overseas so any repatriation, if needed, in the future would encounter a huge tax bill. That said 35% is in the US and that is still a big nut.
I hear ya fauxscot, I'm not exactly a morning person myself. Why one industry seems to receive a higher industry PE over others is something I don't have an answer for. Suffice it to say Apple and Amazon are leaders in their respective industry groups.
That said the difference (I think) is Apple is trading at a discount and Amazon is grossly overvalued IMO.
I believe Apples trading levels are influenced more by the macroeconomic conditions vs ownership percentages. Once things improve and the risk I mention in the article does not loom as large as it does today Apple may quickly approach FV. Hopefully Europe and the US will get their respective acts together before the situation worsens.
True I didn't mention the weightings. The program I use is one I've developed over the past few years and it would take more than an article to get into all the boring details. A quick-and-dirty overview without getting into the math, etc., on methodology is about halfway down on this web page: kleincody.web.officeli...
Hello Catanese You are correct the 5 year rate is about 60% but that number is off an eps base of $2.27+-/share. The long term growth rates I'm projecting going forward are based on 2011 as a base going forward (eps about $27.00+-)
2011 will be an extraordinary year for Apple but that said getting past 5 year growth rates off 2011 will be next to impossible over the next 5+ years IMO. Long term growth rates in the teens would be impressive and would continue to propel the stock higher.
Others will disagree but that's what makes a market.
Hello fauxcot, The 3,5 and 10 year trends when analyzing the cash operations are not weighted equally. More weight is given to the recent trends. If you believe Apple should command a much higher PE then the analysis would be limited to a FV of 501 given in part I.
As the article indicates these are long term projections using 2011 as the baseline, so the growth rates are based off a very large number.
As far "pumping", I don't understand your intent here but suffice it say I'm just sharing my analysis. I've also given price targets from others to add a little transparency. Obviously if you believe that Apple will grow over the next 5+ years at rates you mention in your comments off the 2011 numbers than yes, I can see how you would view this analysis as very conservative.
What Is Wrong With Apple? [View article]
What Is Wrong With Apple? [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
for those interested. But again, even for this unknown name I think next year's uncertainty will drive the stock down more by months end.
What Is Wrong With Apple? [View article]
As far as "emotion charged", I agree; fear drives many decisions regardless of facts, fundamentals, etc. My hope is fear doesn't turn to wide spread market panic but then again just think of all the opportunities that would present themselves if history repeats and the market drops like a rock.
That said in better economic times I think the market will be large enough for AAPL, MSFT, GOOG and others, i.e., its not a zero sum game.
What Is Wrong With Apple? [View article]
What Is Wrong With Apple? [View article]
Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
It would not be the 1st time if Apple paid a dividend. Apple was a dividend payer in the past (1987-1995).
Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500 [View article]
If you clicked the link at the end of the article detailing financial data used you will see our own fair value is $594. My guess is the massive market cap my give pause for many investors so returning $$ to shareholders through dividends can only help IMO. One problem is about 65% of cash is overseas so any repatriation, if needed, in the future would encounter a huge tax bill. That said 35% is in the US and that is still a big nut.
Apple: A Valuation Viewpoint [View article]
Apple: A Valuation Viewpoint [View article]
That said the difference (I think) is Apple is trading at a discount and Amazon is grossly overvalued IMO.
I believe Apples trading levels are influenced more by the macroeconomic conditions vs ownership percentages. Once things improve and the risk I mention in the article does not loom as large as it does today Apple may quickly approach FV. Hopefully Europe and the US will get their respective acts together before the situation worsens.
True I didn't mention the weightings. The program I use is one I've developed over the past few years and it would take more than an article to get into all the boring details. A quick-and-dirty overview without getting into the math, etc., on methodology is about halfway down on this web page:
kleincody.web.officeli...
Apple: A Valuation Viewpoint [View article]
You are correct the 5 year rate is about 60% but that number is off an eps base of $2.27+-/share. The long term growth rates I'm projecting going forward are based on 2011 as a base going forward (eps about $27.00+-)
2011 will be an extraordinary year for Apple but that said getting past 5 year growth rates off 2011 will be next to impossible over the next 5+ years IMO. Long term growth rates in the teens would be impressive and would continue to propel the stock higher.
Others will disagree but that's what makes a market.
Apple: A Valuation Viewpoint [View article]
As the article indicates these are long term projections using 2011 as the baseline, so the growth rates are based off a very large number.
As far "pumping", I don't understand your intent here but suffice it say I'm just sharing my analysis. I've also given price targets from others to add a little transparency. Obviously if you believe that Apple will grow over the next 5+ years at rates you mention in your comments off the 2011 numbers than yes, I can see how you would view this analysis as very conservative.