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David McMillan

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  • Shorting the Long Treasury Is This Fund Manager's Highest Conviction Idea [View article]
    Jhetts - you are right that much is in control of the Fed, including how it will continue to be a large purchaser of Treasuries in 2010 as well as trying to prop up other agency, municipal and corporate debt. If it continues to support all forms of debt, the resulting inflation will just feed a vicious cycle of further Treasury price depreciation and continued steepening of an already steep yield curve and an ever increasing supply overhang.

    svosavvy - what can I say? You are entitled to your opinion and thank you for the debate. I think almost every fund manager out there would agree with you in desiring more investment options with lower expense ratios. Long may the trend continue continue. As an aside, our portfolios average ~ 0.5% and while TBF is on the higher end of the ETF fee spectrum; as it only accounts for a very small holding within a larger allocation, the fee structure isn't prohibitive.
    Jan 26 03:56 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Sector P/E Ratios Rise [View article]
    Good comments Zagreb on how P/E ratios can be very revealing, especially in times like this. Historically, only one bull market rally has been sustained when P/E ratios were above 11. As we didn't come close to this level even last year we appear to be right in the midst of a secular bear market (which can last up to 25yrs). We will see if the next drop takes us down to this level where the corresponding bounce can be a solid one.
    Oct 21 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Water Energy Nexus [View article]
    Eternal Bear - thanks for the error checking as you are quite right. The error is on my part and should have read a doubling in ~112 years,using the 2008 population estimates of 1.33 billion and a linear current growth rate of 0.62%.

    It may have been better stated that my emphasis was on urbanization and industrial development as the most significant driver for water stress, even though population numbers can play a huge factor. It is also distinctly possible that we may even see China's population numbers decline in this century while water demand and scarcity reach even higher levels.
    Feb 26 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Water Energy Nexus [View article]
    One I am watching closely right now is WTR (Aqua America Inc). This stock is currently present in all 4 ETF's Claymore and First Trust have it in the ~4% range for their allocations and it is positioned under 2% in the Powershares models.

    Aqua America is the holding company for various regulated utilities services to customers in 13 different states throughout the nation. They have a very strong operating margin and revenue has been strong even throughout 2008. They aggressively pursue smart acquisitions (more than 100+ in the last few years alone), and are backed by an experienced and solid management team.
    Visit ir.aquaamerica.com/ for more information.
    Feb 23 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ethanol: Our Answer to Reducing U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil [View article]
    Tim,
    I think your article comes from the right place in illustrating some of the alternatives for ethanol production, particularly in the cellulosic space where harvesting existing plant yields are not neccesarily put at risk. The extensive work being done in alternative biodiesel and biogas production, especially in Europe is also worth investigating, particularly from a vehicular perspective due to the higher mpg yields of these fuels.
    Thanks for writing on the topic and getting more exposure out there.
    Aug 26 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Review: Welch Favors Water, Singapore, Currency ETFs [View article]
    Great article Murray. Our managers also hold DBV, PHO and EWS as part of 3 core portfolios we run for clients for all of the reasons listed above. They are excellent long term plays with a couple (particularly DBV) showing sustained non-correlation with the broader market indexes. A great addition to any portfolio that is looking to weather a bear market cycle.
    Jul 30 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternatives and Absolute Return with ETFs [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback Aquater and good selection in mentioning PRPFX.

    Rather than a 'hodge podge concoction', the portfolio has been carefully crafted with a great deal of attention given to offsetting non-correlated asset classes, macro level themes and specialty plays managed using a top down economic forecasting approach.

    By only managing 20 ETFs allows for a very simple model to be handled by our portfolio team and one that only requires reallocation on a quarterly basis. Inclusion of sectors only recently appearing in the ETF universe is also providing significant alpha to the composition in the first half of the year.

    To provide greater detail on the specific weightings and recent modifications I can be reached off list at mcmillan@agilewealth.c...
    Jul 10 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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