Seeking Alpha

David Moenning

 
View as an RSS Feed
View David Moenning's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Fed's (VERY) Big Bets [View article]
    Good for you! Thanks for sharing your story.
    Sep 13 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's (VERY) Big Bets [View article]
    As the saying goes, sell when you can, not when you have to!
    Sep 13 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's (VERY) Big Bets [View article]
    It will likely take years... 5 - 10?
    Sep 13 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Searching For Value (And Finding It In The VIX) [View article]
    This seems to be the sentiment of Soros, Ichan, and now Sam Zell... hmmm...
    Sep 9 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Searching For Value (And Finding It In The VIX) [View article]
    Thanks for the input - differing opinions are what makes a market, right!
    Sep 9 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Searching For Value (And Finding It In The VIX) [View article]
    Thanks for reminding readers of this fact - the VXX, VIXY ETFs are NOT investable... These are trading vehicles only!
    Sep 9 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Searching For Value (And Finding It In The VIX) [View article]
    JCCIII - First, thanks for the kind words. Second, thanks for your point on oil. I kinda lumped oil in with commodities and you are correct, this is an area that could be a decent play from a longer-term perspective. But, as anyone who has ever invested in oil knows, you've got to be patient!
    Sep 9 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: No Professor Shiller, Stocks Are Not Dangerously Overvalued [View article]
    I knew the moment I wrote that sentence that someone would apply it to 2000. That was not the point in any way shape or form.

    In 2000, analysts were making up indicators to justify sky-high valuations in the internet space. It was sheer lunacy and the game spilled over into tech and growth stocks. (Recall that if one held the Value Line during the 2000-02 period they did just fine because those stocks hadn't gone berserk).

    The point is that the game is indeed different in 2014 than it was in 1974. Therefore, one must look at valuation measures from a relative standpoint.

    I'm not saying stocks are cheap. I'm simply saying that they are not "dangerously overvalued" - except in the mo-mo internet-type names, of course.
    Aug 27 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: No Professor Shiller, Stocks Are Not Dangerously Overvalued [View article]
    LOL - Yes, you can call me a bull at the present time. But I do reserve the right to change my stripes when conditions warrant.

    As for the Media P/E, we look at trailing 12 month earnings and the current reading isn't above 2007 or 2000 - although it is in the same range.

    However, let's remember that in 2000, the issue was insanity relative to valuations. And then in 2008 it was a financial crisis.

    Therefore, I don't feel that valuations are "causal" at this stage.

    Have a great day!

    Dave
    Aug 27 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: No Professor Shiller, Stocks Are Not Dangerously Overvalued [View article]
    The key point to this article was not to try and predict future returns - few, if any indicators can do that effectively over the long-term. No, the key was to point out that valuation indicators cannot be used in a vacuum and must be adjusted for the current "era". I am NOT saying this time it is different - merely that the valuation metrics are not "dangerously high" at this stage of the game.

    However, it is also worth noting that stocks are definitely NOT cheap here and that risk is significantly higher than it was two years ago.
    Aug 26 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: And Now It Gets Interesting... [View article]
    We will likely see more "tough talk" and threats...
    Aug 22 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: The Valuation Debate - Robert Shiller Is Very Worried [View article]
    Excellent analysis! One of the things the bears forget is that the decline into 2009 was overdone on a massive scale (recall that the SPX was down 25% YTD as of early 2009). And given the false starts for both the market and the economy that occurred in 2010 and 2011, as long as economic growth continues to be steady and inflation remains in check, stocks could continue to confound the masses.
    Aug 22 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: The Valuation Debate - Robert Shiller Is Very Worried [View article]
    Very nice discussion here - thanks to all who participated. I've got more useful valuation indicators to discuss in the coming week. But the key takeaway is that risk is NOT low at this point in time. The bull is old and a meaningful correction is overdue. However, the market can stay irrational longer than...
    Aug 20 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: The Valuation Debate - Robert Shiller Is Very Worried [View article]
    Valuation indicators are nearly useless in managing money - only at assessing risk levels.
    Aug 20 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: The Valuation Debate - Robert Shiller Is Very Worried [View article]
    The key takeaway from the CAPE is that risk levels are elevated...
    Aug 20 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
492 Comments
85 Likes