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David Moenning

 
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  • Daily State Of The Markets: Is It 'Time' For A Major Correction? [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words. Not sure about the forecasts in 2008 but if memory serves, most analyst weren't looking for trouble!
    Apr 16 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Is It 'Time' For A Major Correction? [View article]
    Inflation being ignored in place of the focus on more Yen-Carry trade opportunities. Apparently traders believe more QE is on the way in Japan. Insert long sigh here.
    Apr 16 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Is It 'Time' For A Major Correction? [View article]
    Thanks - bottom line is we need to be on our toes here.
    Apr 16 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Is It 'Time' For A Major Correction? [View article]
    Thanks for sharing.
    Apr 16 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: No Crisis, No News And No Rumors [View article]
    It is indeed time to be careful! Thanks for the input.
    Apr 15 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: No Crisis, No News And No Rumors [View article]
    That's the way our cycle composite has it playing out. My concern also is that everyone on the planet is looking for a major correction. Hmmm...
    Apr 15 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A Better Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear [View article]
    I'm definitely not against using short positions as our actual models definitely utilize them. However, in this example, I realized that you needed a bear like 2000-02 and 2008 in order to make a monthly system work. In all other declines, you just got whipsawed.

    So, in "real life money management" we use systems designed to create short-entry points. But for this example, it didn't seem to be worth the aggravation.

    Good macro points, btw!
    Apr 10 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A Better Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear [View article]
    Yea, good point... "blood letting" may be an exaggeration for anything other than the Yelp's, Amazon's, Twitter's etc.

    Yes, you can use a short-term MA, but then the frequency and the impact of the whipsaws increase. I was merely trying to present something simple and easy that actually worked okay.

    As for the next correction, i think it either becomes self-fulfilling - as in RIGHT NOW - or maybe doesn't happen. Everybody looking for the same thing!
    Apr 10 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A Better Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear [View article]
    Thanks! And you are correct, our goal was just to provide a SIMPLE, yet effective way to help folks try and avoid another protracted bear. (And no, this approach won't help much to avoid intermediate-term corrections - such an endeavor requires quite a bit more work!)
    Apr 10 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A Better Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear [View article]
    No... it means that the entire plot is shifted forward 5 months. This is an option on most charting software packages (I use eSignal, btw).
    Apr 10 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear [View article]
    Good point on the starting date... different approaches work well in differing environments. However, the 1980-1999 was a secular bull market and there was little need to worry about risk. Today, most investors are concerned about avoiding the next big, bad bear. As such, we were trying to offer up a SIMPLE and free approach that could do just that.

    Is it perfect? Uh, NO! But again, it will help keep folks out of BIG trouble if a protracted bear returns.
    Apr 10 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear [View article]
    Pmiller - In my experience it is HAVING and EXECUTING a plan that matters and NOT necessarily the plan itself. Your concept has merit and will succeed if you stick to it. You might want to consider adding in a little trend-following to your system as well... sometimes markets drop VERY quickly and thus, staying with the big trend can be helpful at times.

    Thanks for sharing your approach - this is a community and my hope is that we all can learn from each other!
    Apr 8 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear [View article]
    Good stuff - thank you. Knowing one's time frames is critical!
    Apr 8 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear [View article]
    Thank you to (a) SA for removing the negative comment (we DO take things to heart at times!) and (b) Mr. Bear for you very kind words.

    It is my sincere hope that people can glean a little something from my missives once in a while. I don't claim to have all the answers, but there are some things that work better than others, right?

    Thanks again for reading along!
    Apr 8 08:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear [View article]
    Well said! Thank you so much for your comments - I agree with ALL of your points. Wish we could instill this knowledge into the "youngins"
    Apr 8 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
482 Comments
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