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David Moenning is a the Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital, which focuses on active risk management of the U.S. stock market. Dave is also the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com, which provides free and subscription-based portfolio services. Dave began his investment career in 1980... More
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  • Are There Sector Divergences As Well?

    Daily State of the Markets
    Tuesday, September 23, 2014

    Last time, we looked at the "technical divergences" evident in the current market from a big-picture standpoint. We compared the charts of the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, and S&P 400 Midcap in order to see if the major indices were all singing the same song. We noted that in a strong market, "the generals" tend to lead the market and "the troops" follow along.

    In our review of the charts, we found that the Dow is in good shape and that the S&P 500 has largely confirmed the Dow's move to new highs. We noted that the NASDAQ appears to be diverging from a near-term perspective. We then found that the Midcaps were also diverging, but not nearly to the same degree as the Smallcaps. And finally, we discovered that the most glaring divergence can be seen in the Russell 2000, which is still suffering from this Spring's "momentum meltdown" (see below).

    Dow Jones Industrial Average - Daily

    Russell 2000 Smallcap - Daily

    What Do The Sectors Say?

    Since there are obviously divergences in the major indices, we thought it would be a good idea to dig a little deeper in order to see if there is a message to be gleaned from the underlying sectors. As such, next up is a review of the charts of the important S&P sectors.

    Dow Jones Transports Index - Daily

    The chart of the Transports index suggests three things. First, that the economy must be doing okay as it appears that the companies moving "stuff" around the country are doing well.

    Second, the new high in the Transports index confirms the move seen in the DJIA.

    Third, the confirmation of new highs between the DJ Industrials and Transport indices means the venerable Dow Theory remains on a buy signal. This is considered the granddaddy of confirmation indicators and therefore, the analysts using this approach see the market in a healthy advance at this time.

    Technology Select SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLK) - Daily

    From a longer-term perspective, the chart of the technology sector appears to be fairly strong. And it is true that the sector SPDR for technology is one day removed from a high. However, the momentum of the sector appears to have stalled out over the last month. And since tech is generally a key leader in the market, this is definitely something to watch.

    Financial Select SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLF) - Daily

    The chart of the financial sector, while also just off its recent high, is not as strong as the chart of the tech sector. Put simply, the action in the financial sector has been much choppier this year. It has been the recent strength in companies such as Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) that has pushed this sector higher. And until just recently, the financials had looked like a laggard.

    But, from the "it is what it is" point of view, this sector appears to confirm the recent highs by the "Generals."

    Energy Select SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLE) - Daily

    The energy sector is another prime example of a technical divergence. The bottom line here is that energy has been moving lower since June while the major indices have been moving up.

    To be sure, the move lower in energy can be attributed largely to the recent rally in the dollar. However, in this exercise, a divergence is a divergence.

    Health Care Select SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLV) - Daily

    Next up is health care and there is nothing at all to complain about here. The sector has benefited handsomely from the runs in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology and the XLV is currently almost double the level seen in 2007 and 2008. This one clearly goes in the "confirmation" category.

    Now let's turn our attention to the consumer.

    Consumer Staples Select SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLP) - Daily

    While the consumer staples sector isn't generally viewed as an exciting play, the XLP is more than 50 percent higher than the prior long-term peaks seen in 2007 and 2008. So, this has clearly been a "fan favorite" among fund managers since the end of the crisis.

    However, from a shorter-term perspective, staples also sports a bit of a divergence. Based on the fact that the XLP is a stone's throw from its recent high, this could be considered more of a non-confirmation than a divergence. Thus, analysts will be watching this sector to see if it can manage to break out in the near-term.

    Consumer Discretionary Select SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLY) - Daily

    Finally, there is the consumer discretionary sector. This had also been a favorite among managers until recently as the XLV is more than 70 percent higher than the 2007/08 peak. But, like technology, momentum has lagged of late and like the staples, there has been no new high.

    Although there are excuses for the recent underperformance, the key is that a divergence is indeed a divergence for our purposes.

    To Sum Up

    So let's review. We have concluded that there are reasons to be nervous about technical divergences among the major indices at this stage. Then in reviewing seven major sector charts, four appear to confirm the new highs seen in the "Generals" while three have diverged - to varying degrees.

    The bottom line: There are indeed divergences evident in the market. But again, the key question is whether or not they can be placed in the "bull killer" category.

    It is important to note that many of the divergences are shorter-term in nature. As such, the "message" here may be that another pullback may be in the offing instead of a bear market. However, this is merely conjecture.

    The KEY takeaway from this exercise is that since there are divergences present, it might be a good idea to exhibit some caution at this stage of the game from a longer-term perspective. Better safe than sorry, right?

    Turning To This Morning

    Growth, or more specifically, worries about future growth, appears to be the name of the game this morning. In short, the Flash PMI data was uninspiring in China and downright weak again in Europe. China's HSBC Flash PMI was reported at 50.5, which was above both the all-important 50 reading (the line of demarcation for growth) and last month's 50.2 - and a two month high. But across the pond, the numbers came in below expectations and confirmed analyst concerns about economic growth in the Eurozone. As a result, the major stock indices in Europe are all down more than 1% this morning. Staying in tune with the global markets, U.S. stock futures are pointing to a weaker open on Wall Street at this time.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: closed
    Hong Kong: -0.49%
    Shanghai: +0.88%
    London: -1.46%
    Germany: -1.42%
    France: -1.95%
    Italy: -1.40%
    Spain: -1.34%

    Crude Oil Futures: +$0.76 to $91.63

    Gold: +$12.00 at $1229.90

    Dollar: higher against the yen, lower vs. euro, and pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.549%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: -6.14
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: -35
    NASDAQ Composite: -12.83

    Thought For The Day:

    Always give without remembering & always receive without forgetting. -Brian Tracy

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    President, Chief Investment Officer
    Heritage Capital Research
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

    Advertisement
    Will You Be Ready For The NEXT Bear Market?

    Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager Can Help
    Contact Heritage for more information or call us at (847) 807-3590


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Sep 23 8:44 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Is It Time To Worry About The Divergences?

    Daily State of the Markets
    Monday, September 22, 2014

    There has been an awful lot of discussion lately about the existence of "technical divergences" in the current market. In English, a "divergence" occurs on the charts when the major indices and/or sectors are not all dancing to the beat of the same drum. In short, in a strong market, "the generals" (the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ) tend to lead the market and "the troops" (the Midcaps and Smallcaps) follow along.

    To be clear, this really isn't about which index is outperforming or underperforming. No, this is about "confirmation." In other words, if the Dow and S&P are at new highs, the rest of the major indices should also be movin' on up into their respective Promised Lands.

    So let's get started. The biggest divergence at the present time can be seen in the Russell 2000 Smallcap index. This spring's "momentum meltdown" created a significant beating in the smallcaps, which has caused the Russell to lag the blue chip indices. As such, the bulls can argue that this "divergence" is easily explained. However, other divergences have been cropping up lately that are worthy of attention.

    Why Should We Care?

    The problem here is quite simple. You see, history shows that the combination of narrow leadership and technical divergences between "the generals" and "the troops" has been present during the vast majority of market tops. And as the saying goes, those ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

    Everyone knows that the current bull run has been one for the record books. And everyone knows that it has been an inordinate length of time since the market experienced a meaningful correction. Remember, this is the 4th longest period in the last 85 years without a -10 percent correction and the 3rd longest stretch without a -20 percent drop.

    Because of this, anyone who has been at this game a while is watching this "divergence" situation like a hawk. So, in an effort to be of service, we thought it would be a good idea take a look at a bunch of charts to see if these divergences should be a reason to worry.

    In Search of the So-Called "Divergences"

    The first chart to review is the ultimate "General" of the market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which hit another new all-time high on Friday.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average - Daily

    There is really nothing to complain about here. The index is at a new high. The index is above both its short- and long-term moving averages, which themselves, are moving up. And then there is a nice uptrend line on the chart dating back to February. As such, the trend clearly favors the bulls here.

    However, a perfect example of a technical divergence occurred on Friday. The Dow finished in the green while all the other major indexes closed in the red - with the Smallcaps losing more than 1.25 percent on the session. This is the type of action that keeps drawing attention to the "divergence" issue.

    Next up, is the S&P 500, which is also a key "General" in the market.

    S&P 500 Index - Daily

    While the Dow appears to be marching merrily higher at the present time, there is less cheer in the S&P 500 index. Exhibit A here is the fact that the recent breakout to fresh all-time highs has been less than convincing. One colleague described the gains in the S&P lately as "begrudging." And on Friday, the red finish puts the validity of the breakout in question.

    The bottom line here is that the bears will score a major victory if they can push the S&P back into the recent trading range. Therefore, 2005 is a key technical level in the coming days.

    Next is the NASDAQ Composite, which up until just recently has been a clear leader and is up +9.65 percent on the year.

    NASDAQ Composite Index - Daily

    The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite did most of the heavy lifting in terms of leadership in the recent rebound. The NASDAQ led the way in breaking to new high ground in mid-August and appeared to be the clear leader. However, more recently the league-leading NASDAQ has not confirmed the Dow and S&P's move to new high ground and appears to have lost momentum.

    One easy explanation for the near-term divergence is the Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) IPO. The biggest IPO in U.S. history required those buying BABA to raise a monstrous amount of cash. Thus, the thinking is that investors likely rotated out of existing technology holdings and into BABA.

    While the divergence in the NASDAQ is clearly only a short-term issue at this point and could easily be corrected, this remains something to watch.

    Next let's check in on the Russell 2000 Smallcap index.

    Russell 2000 Smallcap - Daily

    If one compares the chart of the Russell 2000 to those of the S&P 500 and DJIA, a classic technical divergence is easily seen. While the Dow and S&P are hitting new highs, the Russell is in both a short- and intermediate-term downtrends - and is stuck in a broad range that has been in place since January.

    While the divergence can be explained by the "momo meltdown," the key is to understand that "it is what it is" in the world of technical analysis and no explanations are considered. As such, this is a whopper of a divergence and is unlikely to be rectified in the near-term.

    Next, although not nearly as severe, a similar problem exists in the S&P 400 Midcap index.

    S&P 400 Midcap Index - Daily

    There are two problems with the chart above. First, is the fact that the Middies have not confirmed the Dow and S&P's new high. And second, not only did the Midcap index fail to move to new highs, the index is actually in a short-term downtrend. This is another classic divergence - at least from a near-term perspective.

    But, it is important to recognize that this divergence could be rectified with as little as a 2 percent advance. Therefore, this remains a yellow flag situation as opposed to a reason to run for cover.

    Let's Review

    So let's review. The Dow is in good shape. The S&P 500 confirmed the Dow's move, but just barely. The NASDAQ has diverged in the near-term. The Russell is still suffering from the "momo meltdown" and presents a classic, important divergence. And the Midcaps are also diverging, but not nearly to the same degree as the Smallcaps. Therefore, one can conclude that there are reasons to be nervous about the technical divergences among the major indices at this stage.

    However, the question, of course, is whether or not they can be placed in the "bull killer" category.

    Tomorrow, we will dig into the sectors to see if we can get some answers.

    Turning To This Morning

    The markets this morning are all about the outlook for central bank stimulus measures. Over the weekend, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said the country will not meaningfully alter its economic policy because of any one indicator. This is being viewed as a push back against calls for further stimulus measures. Recall that the People's Bank of China had injected liquidity into the country's 5 biggest banks last week after weak economic numbers - a move that was the equivalent of the PBoC cutting rates by 0.50%. Thus, it appears that traders are voting with their feet on China's publicly stated policy and Chinese stocks suffered overnight. Next up, the ECB's Noyer told a German magazine that the central bank is not currently considering widening its asset purchase program. As a result, European bourses are mostly lower and U.S. stock futures are pointing to a weak open on Wall Street. The only real positive coming into today's session is that both bond yields and the dollar are trading lower in the early going.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: -0.71%
    Hong Kong: -1.44%
    Shanghai: -1.69%
    London: -0.67%
    Germany: +0.10%
    France: -0.09%
    Italy: -0.77%
    Spain: -0.08%

    Crude Oil Futures: +$0.05 to $92.46

    Gold: -$1.80 at $1213.90

    Dollar: lower against the yen, euro, and pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.570%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: -4.45
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: -27
    NASDAQ Composite: -12.39

    Thought For The Day:

    Better three hours too soon than a minute too late. - William Shakespeare

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    President, Chief Investment Officer
    Heritage Capital Research
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

    Advertisement
    Will You Be Ready For The NEXT Bear Market?

    Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager Can Help
    Contact Heritage for more information or call us at (847) 807-3590


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Sep 22 8:20 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Two Indicators That Make You Say, "Hmmm"

    Daily State of the Markets
    Friday, September 19, 2014

    With the Fed meeting finally out of the way, traders can now turn their attention to other things happening in the markets such as rising interest rates, the wild action in the currency markets (if you haven't seen it recently, be sure to check out symbol UUP - PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index), the question of where commodities are going, China's stimulus plans, that hot new IPO, the ongoing geopolitical issues, and of course the fundamentals of the stock market.

    One of the big debates going on in the stock market at the present time has to do with valuations. Some argue that stocks are wildly overvalued, while a great many traditional indicators suggest stocks are no worse than fairly valued. However, there are some lesser-known valuation indicators as well as some sentiment indicators that should give even the most ardent bull pause.

    The Price-to-Sales Ratio is Through the Roof

    Exhibit B for those who believe valuations are a problem (Exhibit A is the Shiller valuation model) is the Median Price-to-Sales ratio for the S&P 500. Over the past 50 years, the norm for the median P/S ratio has been 0.88. However, take a peek at the chart below...

    Median Price-to-Sales Ratio - Monthly from 1965

    With the median price-to-sales ratio at 2.08, the word you are likely looking for is "Yikes!"

    Even if one accepts the argument that today's valuation metrics have to be viewed in a different light than they did prior to the 1990's, the current P/S ratio is still, well, "way out of whack" with even the recent past. In fact, the current 2.08 reading represents an all-time record high.

    While the all-time high really says it all, it is worth noting that the current median P/S ratio is higher than it was in 2007, much, much higher than 2000, and nearly 2.5 times the level seen in 1987.

    Here's the important part. History shows that when the median P/S ratio has been above 1.5ish, the S&P 500 has gained ground at a rate of less than 0.1 percent per year. Yikes, indeed!

    Of course, the problem with valuation indicators is they have almost NO bearing on the short- and intermediate-term moves in the stock market. So, while this indicator may be a reason to raise an eyebrow, it is probably best to put such concerns as valuations on the back burner. However, it is probably a good idea not to forget about this chart forever either. Remember, in the stock market, things like this don't matter until they do - and then then matter a lot.

    Another Reason to Worry: Sentiment Becoming Lopsided

    With all the excitement about the Alibaba IPO, which is slated to be the biggest in U.S. history, a fair amount of attention is being paid to emotions and market sentiment. Although the current bull market remains one of the most hated and/or distrusted ever, some the sentiment indicators are also reaching levels that may make you go, hmmmm.

    For example, Investors Intelligence takes the temperature of investors on a weekly basis. Respondents are asked to place themselves in either the "bull," "bear," or "expecting a correction" camp. Savvy investors know to be wary of the crowd at extremes and thus, this is one of the surveys that is closely watched each week. And through the years, paying attention to the crowd at extremes has been quite profitable at times.

    The problem is that the current number of "bears" fell to 13.3 percent last week - which is the lowest level since... wait for it... the summer of 1987. Another way to put this is that bearish sentiment is presently at a 27-year low.

    Not a Sell Signal, But...

    Like valuation indicators, it is vital to recognize that excessive sentiment can remain intact for quite some time. As such, this indicator is not, in and of itself, a reason to run out and sell everything.

    However, it is also very important to understand that these types of indicators CAN tell us a thing or two about what to expect from the market in the future.

    For those expecting to see predictions of doom and gloom here next, I'm sorry to say that it's just not gonna happen. But... here's something the bears out there can sink their teeth into. You see, history DOES show that when sentiment reaches the type of extreme level we are seeing now, future returns in the stock market are well below average.

    Sparing you the details of the specific indicator, when the number of outright bears in the Investors Intelligence survey has been at or below 13.5, returns over the next 3, 6, 9, and 12 months have been subpar.

    For example, in the past, three months after the number of bears in the II survey hit 13.5 or below, the S&P 500 has produced an average gain of just +0.11 percent. While not a negative number, this is a far cry from the average gain of +1.89 percent for all 3-month periods. And then, twelve months later the story is MUCH worse. Since 1965, the S&P; saw total returns of -0.81 percent after this signal, versus +7.81 percent for all 12-month periods. Ouch.

    The key takeaway here is that valuation and/or sentiment "issues" are not reasons to buy or sell because those "issues" can (and often do) stay in place for incredibly long periods of time (hence the famous phrase, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"). However, it is definitely worth noting that when extremes in sentiment and/or valuation are reached, future returns tend to be on the disappointing side.

    So, while it IS okay to stay long and strong in this type of market, it is probably a good idea to recognize that risk is elevated and that historically, accidents have happened in this type of environment. So, let's all be careful out there!

    Turning To This Morning

    The big news overnight was Scotland's vote to stay in the U.K. Scottish voters rejected independence from the U.K. by a margin of 55% to 45%. Reports indicate the "No" vote was supported by late push from three main UK political parties to give Scotland more control over the country's taxes, spending and welfare. British Prime Minister Cameron said he will ensure these commitments are honored and called for England, Wales and Northern Ireland to have more control over own affairs. Global markets are mostly higher on the news although there is talk of France's credit rating being cut by Moody's today. Here at home, futures are off their best levels but still point to a moderately higher open on Wall Street.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: +1.58%
    - Hong Kong: +0.57%
    - Shanghai: +0.56%
    - London: +0.57%
    - Germany: +0.30%
    - France: -0.15%
    - Italy: -0.81%
    - Spain: +0.35%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.34 to $92.73

    Gold: -$3.50 at $1223.40

    Dollar: lower against the yen, higher vs. euro, and pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.611%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +5.69
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +45
    - NASDAQ Composite: +14.73

    Thought For The Day:

    It is better to be defeated on principle than to win on lies. -Arthur Calwell

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    President, Chief Investment Officer
    Heritage Capital Research
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

    Advertisement
    Will You Be Ready For The NEXT Bear Market?

    Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager Can Help
    Contact Heritage for more information or call us at (847) 807-3590


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Sep 19 8:10 AM | Link | Comment!
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