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David Moenning
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David Moenning is a the Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital, which focuses on active risk management of the U.S. stock market. Dave is also the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com, which provides free and subscription-based portfolio services. Dave began his investment career in 1980... More
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  • Looking For Stabilization

    With most traders focusing on the important things in life this week, things are fairly quiet in the early going on this Christmas Eve. Perhaps the most important aspect of today is that the stock market closes at 1:00 pm eastern. Looking around at the news wires, there isn't much to report. Greece continues to be in focus as the current PM has been unable to gather the votes to form a new government. While it has been a while since traders have cared about Greece, some analysts view this as a possible destabilizing factor going into 2015.

    Next up is oil. Although futures are down again this morning, the current action on the charts leaves those seeing the glass as half full hoping that prices are now stabilizing.

    US Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) - Daily

    View Larger Image

    The key takeaway in the market is that the Saudis have made it clear there is no incentive for them to reduce production. The view is that reducing output would only result in lost market share.

    And finally there is Russia. Despite Standard & Poor's warning on the country's debt outlook, the central bank's pledge to provide currency to banks is being viewed as evidence that this potential crisis is also in stabilization mode.

    Here in the U.S., futures are trading modestly higher as traders continue to implement the seasonality play book.

    Current Market Environment

    With the Dow, S&P, and Midcap indices all at new all-time highs (albeit only by the thinnest of margins) and the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 flirting with new highs, it is hard to argue with the bullish case at the present time. However, it is important to keep in mind that there continues to be cross currents in this market and that the underlying strength of this market remains less than optimal. For example, our market environment models are still struggling to push into the positive zone. And the bottom line is this is unusual when the indices are at all-time highs. As such, this is no time to fall asleep at the switch.

    Looking At The Charts

    The highlight to the technical picture at the present time is clearly the breakout seen on the charts of the Dow, S&P and Midcap indices. Or perhaps more importantly - especially from the bear camp's perspective - the lack of conviction of this so-called breakout. In other words, while the three indices did break to new highs, they did so in a weak fashion. Therefore, traders may need to brace for another in a very long string of "breakout fake-outs," as this has been a common occurrence in 2014.

    S&P 500 - Daily

    View Larger Image

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: +1.24%
    Hong Kong: +0.07%
    Shanghai: -1.97%
    London: +0.18%
    Germany: closed
    France: -0.37%
    Italy: +1.46%
    Spain: -0.08%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$1.30 to $55.82

    Gold: -$1.50 at $1176.50

    Dollar: lower against the yen and pound, higher vs. euro

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.227%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: +6.18
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: +49
    NASDAQ Composite: +10.56

    Thought For The Day:

    Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle. -Plato

    Current Market Drivers

    We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

    1. The State of the Oil Crash
    2. The State of Fed/ECB/BOJ Policy
    3. The State of Russia/Emerging Markets "Crisis"
    4. The State of the U.S. Economy

    The State of the Trend

    We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:

    Short-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)

    Intermediate-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)

    Long-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 2 years)

    Key Technical Areas:

    Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:

    • Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 2060
    • Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 2085
    The State of the Tape

    Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...

    • Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Positive
    • Price Thrust Indicator: Positive
    • Volume Thrust Indicator: Neutral
    • Breadth Thrust Indicator: Neutral
    • Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Positive
    • Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups: High Neutral
    The Early Warning Indicators

    Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.

    • S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
      - Short-Term: Moderately Overbought
      - Intermediate-Term: Neutral
    • Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Neutral .
    The State of the Market Environment

    One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.

    • Weekly Market Environment Model Reading: Positive

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
    Heritage Capital Research - A CONCERT Advisor
    Be Sure To Check Out the NEW Website!


    Indicator Explanations

    Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term) Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.

    Price Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.

    Volume Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.

    Breadth Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.

    Bull/Bear Volume Relationship Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.

    Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.

    Weekly State of the Market Model Reading Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.


    Disclosures

    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., a registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Dec 24 8:47 AM | Link | 2 Comments
  • What Do The Cycles Say About 2015?

    Daily State of the Markets
    Tuesday, December 23, 2014

    With the Dow and S&P 500 now back at all-time highs (albeit by the skinniest of margins), and traders apparently following the seasonality play book, the question of the day is, where do we go from here?

    The first item of note is that although both of the blue chip indices did in fact close at all-time highs yesterday, neither was able to "break out" above the intraday high-water mark set earlier in the month. In addition, note that the Russell 2000 is now back to within spitting distance of its record high set back in July. And with the NASDAQ and Midcap indices not yet to The Promised Land, the technicians tell us that there is some resistance overhead - and that the bulls still have some work to do if they want to claim that another new up leg has begun.

    S&P 500 - Daily

    View Larger Image

    However, the good news is that the uptrend line that can be drawn from the October and December lows looks fairly healthy and the price action on the weekly chart of the S&P continues to move from the lower left to the upper right. So, while the bulls have been tested a couple times lately, our heroes in horns do appear to have possession of the ball.

    S&P 500 - Weekly

    View Larger Image

    Which brings us back to the question of the day, where do we go from here? The bears argue that momentum has been unimpressive for much of this year and that given the age of the current bull, the move is looking old and tired.

    However, it is important to remember that bull markets do not usually die of old age. No, the stock market is really the manifestation of the investing public's view of the world going forward. And with the economy improving, rates and inflation staying low, earnings at record levels, and the Fed intent on not blowing up the recovery, things look pretty good here in the good 'ol USofA right now.

    So, with both teams apparently having a decent argument, it is probably a good time to check in with our cycle composite in order to get a feeling for what 2015 "might" look like.

    What Do The Cycles Say?

    But before we get to the projection of the cycle work, we are once again obligated to offer up some disclosures/disclaimers regarding the proper use of stock market cycle analysis. The bottom line here is simple: The review of cycles should NOT be used in a vacuum or as a stand-alone indicator. Using only the cycle projection, or any other indicator for that matter, to guide your investing decisions is a fool's game.

    With that said however, we continue to review what the cycles suggest might happen on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. In fact, this data continues to be an important input into our daily and weekly Market Environment models.

    What Is a Cycle Composite?

    For anyone new to our periodic analysis of the cycles (the closest thing we have to a crystal ball), the cycle composite is a combination of the one-year seasonal, the four-year Presidential, and the 10-year decennial cycles - all going back to 1928.

    By combining these three cycles, the cycle composite is produced. And while expecting the market to follow the cycles exactly is just plain silly, it is surprising how often the market tends to follow the general direction of the composite - especially when viewed from a long-term perspective.

    Where Are We Now?

    Recall that the stock market has followed the 2014 cycle projection almost to a "T". In fact, the price of the S&P 500 resides almost exactly at the same spot as the cycle projection today. An amazing feat.

    To be sure, the ride has not been smooth and the S&P has indeed strayed from the projection - sometimes substantially so - at times. However, the key is that the composite was an excellent guide to 2014.

    Oh, and before moving on to the outlook for 2015, we should note that the cycle projection for the rest of this year is a one-way street - to the upside.

    Looking Ahead to 2015

    One could not be blamed for looking ahead to 2015 with caution. Stocks have been running higher for 5.75 years. While the economy is strong, valuations are full. Interest rates are likely to rise at some point next year. And this is now the 3rd longest stretch in history without a bear market decline.

    But here's the good news. 2015 is a year that ends in 5. 2015 is the third year of the Presidential cycle. And believe it or not, the cycle projection for 2015 looks pretty darned strong.

    The chart below shows the cycle "mashup" or composite for 2015 (the red dashed line) and the S&P 500's actual movements from the beginning of 2014. First, note that the red line uses the current cycle projection for 2015 - not the one developed for 2014.

    The next thing to note on the chart is the black vertical line drawn at the end of the blue line. This marks the beginning of the projection for next year.

    In looking at the red line, one can't be blamed for breaking into a broad smile. With the exception of some waffling in the spring and fall, the rest of the year is projected to be, well, straight up!

    Because the projection is SO lopsided toward the bulls, it is probably a very good idea to take the composite's prognostication with a grain of salt. In other words, it would be irresponsible to expect the market to follow this pattern.

    However, stranger things have happened in this game and we thought that you should at least be aware of what the cycles are saying about the New Year.

    Speaking of the holidays, please note that I'll be taking some time between now and the start of 2015 to recharge the batteries and be with the family. As such, the morning missive is likely to go missing a time or two (okay, maybe three or four times) over the next two weeks.

    Happy Holidays to all!


    Are You Getting the BIG Moves Right in the Stock Market?

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    One Decision, Once a Day is All it Takes

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    Turning To This Morning

    Oil is moving higher and OPEC expects prices to be back above $70 by the end of next year. There is no news to speak of out of Russia. Stocks are up in Europe. And the final revision to U.S. GDP came in with a 5-handle. So, while China's stock market took it on the chin, stocks are up in Europe and the market is looking to open higher here in the U.S.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: Closed
    Hong Kong: -0.32%
    Shanghai: -3.02%
    London: +0.32%
    Germany: +0.27%
    France: +0.81%
    Italy: +0.64%
    Spain: +0.39%

    Crude Oil Futures: +$0.73 to $55.99

    Gold: -$1.80 at $1178.00

    Dollar: higher against the yen and pound, lower vs. euro

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.170%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: +9.36
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: +87
    NASDAQ Composite: +17.93

    Thought For The Day:

    We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit. -Aristotle

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    President, Chief Investment Officer
    Heritage Capital Research
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

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    Will You Be Ready For The NEXT Bear Market?

    Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager Can Help
    Contact Heritage for more information or call us at (847) 807-3590


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Dec 23 8:59 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Can They Be Trusted?

    Daily State of the Markets
    Monday, December 22, 2014

    The question of the day (in this business, sometimes knowing the question is more important than having the answer) is whether or not the current joyride to the upside, which has taken the S&P 500 up nearly 100 points (97.91 to be exact) or +4.96 percent in just 3 days, can be trusted.

    From a pure technical standpoint, a blast like the market saw last week is referred to by some analysts as a "thrust," which has historically been a harbinger of good things to come. The thinking is that if a market surges higher in a very short period of time, buyers must be anxious to get in. Thus, a blast in prices is usually accompanied by additional gains down the road.

    To clarify, none of the indicators which measure a true "thrust buy signal" in terms of either price, breadth, or volume, have flashed green as of yet. However, should the current jaunt go on much longer, there will likely be green flags waving from this group.

    The problem though, is at the beginning of last week the market appeared to be fraught with risk. The S&P had just fallen 5 percent in just 7 sessions on fears about oil, high yield defaults, Russia, deflation, etc. And then, before you could find a chart of oil dating back to the 1980's - BAM! - the market has returned to all-time highs.

    One of the first things to note about the recent action is that "V" bottoms have been the norm in 2014. Once each and every decline became ugly, something came along to cause traders (or perhaps more accurately, traders' computers) to simply "go the other way" - in a hurry.

    S&P 500 - Daily

    View Larger Image

    There has been no basing activity. There have been no retests. Nope, every "dip" has been bought - and usually in a rather aggressive fashion.

    Therefore, the thinking is that this time will be no different and that it is likely to be up, up, and away from here.

    Should We "Trust the Thrust?"

    Ned Davis is famous for coming up with iconic phrases such as "Don't fight the Fed" and "Don't fight the tape." However, another phrase that the firm's clients are quite familiar with is, "Trust the thrust." Again, the historical data suggests that a thrust in the market tends to usher in strong gains over the ensuing 30 days as well as the next 3-, 6-, and 12-months.

    However, this time around, the move feels more than a little "news driven" and as such, could be more a case of high-speed trading algorithms doing their thing each day.

    Reasons For the Move

    The excuses du jour for the blast higher have been many and varied. First there is the topic of oil.

    U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO)- Weekly

    View Larger Image

    Traders know that the type of crash that is happening in oil prices has to end somewhere. However, given the devastation that has already occurred and the fact that lots of folks are talking about lower oil prices ahead, traders have been reluctant to try to "catch a falling knife."

    Yet, one of the reasons given for the recent surge in stock prices has been the idea that oil prices have stabilized over the last 4 days. The idea is that if the worst of the dive is over, then the global economy might be okay going forward.

    U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO)- Daily

    View Larger Image

    On the topic of stabilization, another reason for the move up in the stock market has been the improved action in Russia.

    Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX)- Daily

    View Larger Image

    The question of course, is if the violent drops in oil, Russia, and the emerging markets is over. To be sure, the first step to ending these waterfall declines is for prices to stop falling. Next, would be a reflex rally. Then a retest of the lows. And finally, the base-building phase. So, it is safe to say that at this point in time, it is still early in the process.

    The Fed and the Calendar

    Other reasons for traders suddenly hopping back on the bull band wagon include the Fed and the calendar.

    The "liquidity trade" has been a big deal in the market for quite some time now as all that money being printed by central bankers has to go somewhere. And since money tends to go where it is treated best, a great deal of the fresh cash has found its way to the U.S. stock and bond markets.

    The worry though has been that the Fed would ruin the party by pulling the punch bowl prematurely. Everybody knows that "fighting the Fed" is a bad idea and as such, if the Fed were to begin raising rates before June of next year, well, it could become a problem...

    However, with Janet Yellen deftly swapping "patient" for "considerable time" last week, traders can now rest assured that unless the U.S. economy gallops higher from here, the Fed isn't likely to do anything unexpected.

    And then there is the calendar.

    Whether you prefer to call it the "year-end rally" or the "Santa Claus rally," the bottom line is that stocks tend to be sloppy in the first half of December and then rally in the second half. Therefore, it isn't terribly surprising to see that traders and their computers have been falling all over themselves lately trying to get into the seasonality trade.

    And then when you consider that 2014 has been a disappointing year for most managers (remember, although the S&P is up 12 percent year-to-date, the average stock is up only 1.3 percent in 2014!), the combination of dip-buying and performance anxiety seems to also be prompting managers to simply hold their nose and put any/all available cash to work here.

    Which brings us to the title of this morning's somewhat meandering market missive: Can they be trusted (meaning the "V" bottoms)? The answer would appear to be, yes - for now.

    However, if oil/Russia/high yields were to start diving again, it could be another story entirely...

    Happy Holidays to all!


    Are You Getting the BIG Moves Right in the Stock Market?

    Check Out the Daily Decision System
    One Decision, Once a Day is All it Takes

    Live Verified Performance: +47.2% from 2013 and +428% since 2009


    Turning To This Morning

    Stocks enter this Holiday week in a positive mode. Wall Street rallied on Friday. Oil is trying to stabilize. Russia isn't tanking. High Yields are rebounding. And so, it isn't terribly surprising to see that foreign markets are higher across the board this morning. However, the focus continues to be on the price of oil. And it is a decent bet that if crude begins to break down again, so too would the recent buoyancy seen in the stock market. In fact, futures in the U.S., while still green, are off their highs in response to crude giving up early gains. But for now, it appears that Santa has once again delivered to Wall Street.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: +0.08%
    Hong Kong: +1.26%
    Shanghai: +0.59%
    London: +0.99%
    Germany: +1.28%
    France: +0.81%
    Italy: +0.50%
    Spain: +0.15%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.39 to $56.74

    Gold: -$0.80 at $1195.20

    Dollar: lower against the yen and euro, higher vs. pound

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.183%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: +8.55
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: +82
    NASDAQ Composite: +6.02

    Thought For The Day:

    The only way to do great work is to love what you do. -Steve Jobs

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    President, Chief Investment Officer
    Heritage Capital Research
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

    Advertisement
    Will You Be Ready For The NEXT Bear Market?

    Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager Can Help
    Contact Heritage for more information or call us at (847) 807-3590


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Dec 22 8:37 AM | Link | Comment!
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