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David Moenning is a the Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital, which focuses on active risk management of the U.S. stock market. Dave is also the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com, which provides free and subscription-based portfolio services. Dave began his investment career in 1980... More
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  • The Bears May Get It Right Eventually

    Daily State of the Markets
    Monday, August 27, 2014

    It is said that differing opinions is what makes a market. If there is one thing we know for sure about the current market, it is that the disparity between the opinions of what "should" be happening in the market versus what is actually happening in the market is about a mile wide.

    One of the most confounding aspects of this market has been its refusal to pull back to any meaningful degree. Everyone has seen the statistics relating how long it has been since the stock market has experienced a serious correction. Yep, it's true. This has been one of the longest periods of time in history without the market experiencing a -10% correction. Look at a chart and you'll see that this market has been a one-way affair since the end of 2012. And the bottom line is this has been a bit of a nightmare for our furry friends in the bear camp.

    With each new all-time high, the nattering nabobs of negativity continue to sound the alarm. It's only a matter of time, they tell us. This will end badly, just you wait and see, they proclaim. In sum, all those investors who are now perfectly prepared for what they should have done in 2000 and again in 2008 are making it their life's work to warn us of the impending doom that undoubtedly lies ahead.

    It's Time To Fear The Fed (We're Told)

    One argument the bears continue to make is that stocks wouldn't be where they are today if it weren't for the Fed's easy money policies and QE printing programs. Those seeing the market's glass as at least half empty contend that the gains in the stock market have been almost completely artificial over the last five years and in turn, the market will surely come crashing back down to reality once the Fed "exits" its current dovish policies and rates return to more normalized levels.

    However, one of the most important lessons to learn in this business is to play the hand you've been dealt and not the one you'd like. In other words, it is vital to recognize that nobody cares about your opinion (or mine either for that matter) of the Fed's actions. Remember, in order to be successful over the long-term, investors must first learn to identify/understand what is happening in the markets and to then figure out a way to profit from it.

    Another way to look at this point is to understand that the stock market is an "it is what it is" type of game. So, instead of complaining about why you are right and the market is wrong, it is more important to put your opinions and your ego aside and try to simply "get it right" in your portfolio.

    Of course, those who are predicting death and destruction when the Fed starts to hike rates may be right. However, there is really nothing wrong with making the money that is available to you between now and the time the sky actually falls.

    Valuations Will Be The Death of Us, Right?

    Another complaint the bears have been shouting about lately is the issue of stock market valuations. Folks like Professor Shiller have provided the bears with ammunition to proclaim that the current market will turn out to be 1999 revisited and that dire times are ahead.

    To be sure, Shiller's CAPE Ratio is at an elevated level. However, as we've discussed, there are other indicators, such as the Median Price-To-Earnings Ratio that show stock valuations are currently no worse than average. And for the record, there are a handful of other valuation indicators saying the exact same thing right now.

    Remember, the "E" in P/E is at Record Levels

    But one of the key points to understand about the valuation debate in general is that the denominators of the ratios being used are at record levels.

    Remember, the "E" in the P/E ratio is earnings. And don't look now bear fans, but earnings are at record highs. It doesn't matter whether we're talking about GAAP earnings, operating earnings, or normalized earnings - they are all are record levels.

    The same thing can be said of dividends. Sure, the P/D ratio is high right now (primarily because companies are emphasizing stock buybacks instead of dividend payments). However, it is worth noting that the level of dividends being paid out on the S&P 500 is at all-time highs.

    Another valuation indicator that can be viewed as a bit worrisome is the S&P's Price-to-Sales ratio. The primary reason that the P/S ratio is elevated right now is the simple fact that the rate of growth of total sales for S&P 500 companies (we are using 12-month sales here) has been uninspiring for the past five years. But, but, but... we should also note that total sales hit all time highs in 2011, 2012, and 2013, and are projected to set another record in 2014.

    So, while it may be simplistic, the key question is why are so many analysts horrified that prices are at record highs when earnings, dividends, and sales are at records as well?

    Cast Aspersions If You Must, But...

    As stated, this can be viewed as an overly simplistic way of thinking. But here's the deal. The stock market is a discounting mechanism that looks forward and not back. So, with stocks at all-time highs and refusing to succumb to the bears' wishes, it appears that investors expect things to improve down the road. And let's keep in mind that if earnings (or dividends, or sales) can grow at a rate that is better than expected, then prices can advance as well - without the valuation ratios becoming a problem.

    The bottom line is this. If the economy continues to improve and if inflation can remain in check, then corporate profits will likely continue to advance. And, in turn, stock prices can continue to move higher.

    This does not mean that a correction will not occur. No, pullbacks of 5 - 10 percent can happen at any time and for any reason. But what this does mean is that the inevitable death and destruction being espoused by the bear camp isn't likely to occur unless the environment changes.

    Publishing Note: Although our trek through Iceland/England was scuttled at the last minute due to the seismic/volcanic activity in Iceland (and our plan to instead head to Napa/Sonoma had to be adjusted due to the earthquake), we are going to try our darndest to go on vacation through 9/4. Thus, I will publish reports only as time permits or as conditions warrant.

    Turning To This Morning

    Things are fairly quiet on this fine Wednesday morning. There are no major developments on the geopolitical front to report and the overnight markets were fairly quiet. This remains the height of Wall Street's vacation season and with no major economic releases scheduled for today, trading could be somewhat listless. Stock futures in the U.S. currently point to a slightly higher open.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: +0.09%
    - Hong Kong: -0.62%
    - Shanghai: -0.09%
    - London: +0.06%
    - Germany: -0.11%
    - France: -0.15%
    - Italy: -0.02%
    - Spain: +0.19%

    Crude Oil Futures: +$0.26 to $94.12

    Gold: +$1.80 at $1287.00

    Dollar: higher against the yen, lower vs. euro and pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.365%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +1.13
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +22
    - NASDAQ Composite: +1.78

    Thought For The Day:

    You can train your mind to see the good in everything.

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    President, Chief Investment Officer
    Heritage Capital Research
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

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    Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager Can Help
    Contact Heritage for more information or call us at (847) 807-3590


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Aug 27 8:56 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Current Key: Breakout Or Fake-Out?

    The primary focus of the market at this stage appears to be on both the geopolitical hotspots in Ukraine/Russia, Syria and Iraq and the 2,000 level on the S&P 500. The big, round numbers on the major indices (especially the Dow and S&P 500) always seem to bring the debate of valuations back in focus and cause traders to question whether or not the bulls can simply keep on keepin' on. This was certainly the case Monday as the S&P briefly breached the 2,000 level. However, as expected, there were sell programs waiting at that level with the semiconductors being the bears' weapon of choice. Today's action will likely be dominated by the raft of economic data to be digested including Durable Goods, the Case-Shiller report on home prices, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index as well as the Richmond Fed report on business activity.

    Current Market Outlook

    This remains one of the most hated/distrusted markets I've seen in quite some time. While the S&P is up nearly +200% since the March 9, 2000 low, there is always something to worry/complain about in this market. Currently, the primary issue is valuations, which, as we've been discussing in our Daily State of the Market reports, are simply not excessive at the present time. The bottom line here is that although stocks are not cheap by any measure, they are also not dangerously overvalued as some are suggesting. In addition, the trend is up and our market models are moderately positive on balance.

    Looking At The Charts

    The three charts below tell the story of the current market. The question of the day is if the S&P 500 has indeed broken out to new high ground. As can be seen in the first chart below, it appears that the S&P has produced a breakout, although the move is not convincing at this stage.

    S&P 500 - Daily

    Next up is the NASDAQ Composite. As the chart indicates, there is no argument here as the tech-heavy index broke out convincingly six sessions ago and is the clear leader at this stage of the game.

    NASDAQ Composite - Daily

    The problem, is the Dow and smaller-cap indices, which have been lagging the S&P and NASDAQ ever since the momentum meltdown took place earlier in the year.

    Dow Jones Industrials - Daily

    However, the DJIA is indeed getting close to the Promised Land. As such, the bulls can be given the benefit of the doubt at this stage. The key is that another strong day or two coule easily push the Dow into new-high territory and allow all three of the the major indices to be singing the same tune. This remains something to keep an eye on.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: -0.59%
    - Hong Kong: -0.37%
    - Shanghai: -1.00%
    - London: +0.48%
    - Germany: +0.38%
    - France: +0.80%
    - Italy: +0.72%
    - Spain: +0.81%

    Crude Oil Futures: +$0.20 to $93.55

    Gold: +$11.50 at $1290.40

    Dollar: higher against the yen and pound, lower vs. euro.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.386%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +2.33
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +27
    - NASDAQ Composite: +4.62

    Thought For The Day:

    Do not ask for inspiration to guide your footsteps if you're not willing to move your feet.

    Current Market Drivers

    We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

    1. The State of the Geopolitical 'Issues'
    2. The State of Fed/ECB Policy
    3. The Level of Interest Rates
    4. The Outlook for U.S. Economic Growth

    The State of the Trend

    We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:

    Short-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)

    Intermediate-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)

    Long-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 12 months)

    Key Technical Areas:

    Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:

    • Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 1960(ish)
    • Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 2000
    The State of the Tape

    Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...

    Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Positive
    Signal Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.

    Price Thrust Indicator: Positive
    Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.

    Volume Thrust Indicator: Positive
    Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.

    Breadth Thrust Indicator: Positive
    Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.

    Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Moderately Positive
    Indicator Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.

    Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups: Neutral
    Model Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.

    The Early Warning Indicators

    Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.

    • S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
      - Short-Term: Overbought
      - Intermediate-Term: Neutral
    • Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Negative.
    The State of the Market Environment

    One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.

    Weekly State of the Market Model Reading: Moderately Positive
    Model Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
    Heritage Capital Research - A CONCERT Advisor
    Be Sure To Check Out the NEW Website!


    Is Your Portfolio Ready for the Next Financial Storm??

    Check out Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager
    Or call Heritage for more information at (847) 807-3590


    Aug 26 8:57 AM | Link | Comment!
  • No Professor Shiller, Stocks Are Not Dangerously Overvalued

    Daily State of the Markets
    Monday, August 25, 2014

    With the S&P moving back to new all-time highs, the debate over valuation levels in the stock market is heating up again. Therefore, this would appear to be a good time to continue our in-depth look at a multitude of valuation indicators.

    Much of the attention last week was focused on Robert Shiller's CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings) Ratio, which we reviewed last Monday. The views on what to make of this indicator vary widely. But, most analysts recognize that the CAPE Ratio is a very, very long-term indicator. In fact, the key takeaway from the chart of the indicator (which goes back to 1900) was summed up nicely by Professor Shiller himself. Shiller wrote, "...we should recognize that we are in an unusual period, and that it's time to ask some serious questions about it."

    In essence, Shiller is saying that the market, according to his view of valuation, is currently in rarefied air and that investors should take note. However, in looking at a variety of other valuation indicators, this message doesn't come through.

    So, let's dig into some data...

    The Median P/E Ratio

    The problem with using an average of the Price-to-Earnings ratio over time is that temporary distortions can have a large impact. Therefore, one alternative is to use the median of the actual 12-month trailing earnings (fully diluted for extraordinary items) of the S&P 500.

    It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words, so please spend a moment with the chart below. The chart illustrates the Median P/E Ratio for S&P 500 plotted on a monthly basis from 4/1/1964 through 7/31/2014.


    Click for Larger Image

    There are several points that can be taken away from this chart. The first, and perhaps the most important, is the fact that there are two clearly different "eras" of valuation portrayed here.

    The first era took place from 1964 through 1989 - which is the left hand side of the chart. During this period, the high valuation level for the median P/E indicator was seen in 1987, with a reading around 21. The low valuation level was down in the 6-7 range, a level that was hit in early 1975 and again in 1982. And the average for the period (the middle dashed line on the left side of the chart) looks to be somewhere around 12.

    During this period, pension plans and institutions were the primary players in the market. For example, if memory serves, the total assets in ALL equity mutual funds in 1982 was less than $50 billion and total assets in all equity funds didn't exceed $1 trillion until 1989.

    During this 'institutional era' the chart shows that the dashed line represented what could be called the "fair value" level for the market while the green line was clearly the danger zone and the lower dashed line suggested that stocks were bargains.

    One could also argue that the middle dashed line represented an undervalued level for the S&P 500 during this time - except during the brunt of the secular bear market that occurred in 1974.

    Now, if you will turn your attention to the right hand side of the chart, you will see a completely different - and significantly more complex story.

    The Modern Era

    The right side of the chart shows that the level of valuations from 1990 forward are dramatically different than those seen from 1964 through 1989. And yes, we could easily spend time arguing about when this "new era" for valuations began as anywhere from 1985-1990 would be acceptable. However, the key point is that the right hand side of the chart is very different from the left.

    The first question is why is there such a disparity in the two time periods? The answer is likely the fact that instead of pension plans and institutional investors being the primary players in the market, as time went on it was mutual funds and hedge funds that took control of the game.

    Remember, back in the day, corporations provided their employees with defined benefit pension plans. Those days are now long gone as the 401(NYSE:K) plan has replaced the pension plan. Therefore, individuals are putting more and more money into the market, with most of this cash being allocated to index funds. In short, this has created higher demand for equities over the years as new cash comes in - month after month - that needs to be put to work.

    What Was Overvalued is Now Undervalued

    Regardless of your view on the reason for this change, the bottom line is that the green line on the chart - which represented an overvalued level on the S&P 500 from 1964 through 1989 - has represented an undervalued level for the past 20+ years.

    Another key takeaway in looking at this or any other valuation indicator is that the really big moves that occur in the market can cause indicators to become distorted. The above chart highlights two such occurrences - in 2002 and again in 2009.

    In other words, in order to make valuation indicators useful in today's wacky world, you have to make some adjustments. And in this case, it is probably a good idea to ignore the spike in the median P/E seen in 2002 and the dive of 2009 due to the fact that the readings became distorted by extreme movements in stock prices.

    Generally speaking, if we eliminate the "distortions," one can argue that the range of this indicator over the last 23-25 years has been between the dashed line below the green line on the downside and the two dashed lines above the green line on the upside.

    We will opine that the dark horizontal lines drawn in on this chart represent a decent range for under and overvaluation.

    Where is "Overvalued" and "Undervalued" Now?

    Assuming you agree with the approach/analysis presented here so far, the next question becomes, where does the market have to go from here in order to become overvalued or undervalued?

    Using the over/undervaluation lines drawn on the chart shown above, we did some basic calculations using the current 12-month trailing earnings on the S&P 500 to came up with the following...

    • The S&P 500 would become Overvalued at 2185 or +9.4% from Friday's close (and would become "very overvalued" - ala 1999 - at the 2207 level)
    • The S&P 500 would become Undervalued at 1672 or -15.9% from Friday's close

    It is important to recognize that if earnings continue to improve, the overvaluation levels listed above would need to adjusted higher as well. And this is why the valuation levels are a constantly moving target.

    The Takeaway

    While Professor Shiller contends that the stock market is currently in "rarefied air" based on analysis of data going back to 1900, our view is that one can't use valuation metrics in a vacuum. In short, since participation in the stock market has become more mainstream and the market moves have become more extreme over the last 25 years, one needs to make some adjustments to valuation measures in order for them to be useful.

    This is NOT to say that Shiller's point is invalid. There ARE other measures (there is more to come on this topic) that suggest stocks are overvalued to some degree. However, based on adjusted, median P/E's, stocks do NOT appear to be in the "danger zone" at this time.

    Publishing Note: Although our trek through Iceland/England was scuttled at the last minute due to the seismic/volcanic activity in Iceland, we are heading out on vacation through 9/4. Thus, I will publish reports only as time permits or as conditions warrant.

    Turning To This Morning

    Despite a fourth consecutive monthly decline in Germany's IFO Business Climate index and the resignation of France's government in response to the sagging economy, hope for the ECB's long awaited monetary stimulus in the Eurozone is putting a bid under stocks across the pond this morning. U.S. futures are following suit and point to a stronger open on Wall Street ahead of Flash Services PMI and New Home Sales reports. However, with a big meeting scheduled for tomorrow between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, some analysts suggest the upside may be limited on this summer Monday.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: +0.47%
    - Hong Kong: +0.22%
    - Shanghai: -0.57%
    - London: NA
    - Germany: +0.96%
    - France: +1.09%
    - Italy: +1.26%
    - Spain: +1.01%

    Crude Oil Futures: +$0.14 to $93.79

    Gold: -$1.10 at $1279.10

    Dollar: lower against the yen and pound, higher vs. euro.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.383%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +9.10
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +68
    - NASDAQ Composite: +19.05

    Thought For The Day:

    "It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." --Mark Twain

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    President, Chief Investment Officer
    Heritage Capital Research
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

    Advertisement
    Will You Be Ready For The NEXT Bear Market?

    Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager Can Help
    Contact Heritage for more information or call us at (847) 807-3590


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Aug 25 8:27 AM | Link | Comment!
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