Seeking Alpha

David Moenning's  Instablog

David Moenning
Send Message
David Moenning is a the Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital, which focuses on active risk management of the U.S. stock market. Dave is also the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com, which provides free and subscription-based portfolio services. Dave began his investment career in 1980... More
My company:
StateoftheMarkets.com
My blog:
Daily State of the Markets
View David Moenning's Instablogs on:
  • And Now It Gets Interesting...

    The focus of the market is back on geopolitics today. Video of Islamic Militants apparently beheading American journalist James Foley and threatening to do the same to another journalist has refocused attention on the situation in Iraq. According to the video released, the killing of the American journalist was in retaliation for U.S. air strikes against the Islamic State. The video goes on to threaten another journalist, believed to be Steven Sotloff depending on President Obama's "next decision."

    Overnight markets appear to be taking a break from the recent rally. And here at home, traders are waiting patiently for the minutes from the latest Fed meeting, which will be released this afternoon, as well as Janet Yellen's speech from Jackson Hole on Friday. Recall that Ben Bernanke had used the podium in Jackson Hole to leak the Fed's plans to launch QE programs as well as "Operation Twist." And while Yellen is not expected to make any announcements, traders will be listening intently to each and every word the Fed Chair utters on Friday. Stock futures are pointing to a pullback when stocks open for trading on Wall Street.

    Current Market Outlook

    The easy part of the move in the market has likely already occurred as the reasons behind the recent pullback have so far at least, proved to be baseless from a fundamental standpoint. As such, the S& 500 finds itself back near all-time highs. However, going forward, the bulls may find the going a bit tougher. Questions about the outlook for the economy, Fed policy, inflation, earnings and valuation may become the focal point in the not too distant future. So, unless buyers continue to push prices to new highs (as seen on the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 indices) the game may become more challenging in the near term. At the very least, a pause in the uptrend would be logical at this stage.

    Looking At The Charts

    While the current trend of the stock market remains positive across all three major time frames, it is important to recognize that stocks have become overbought from a short-term perspective and there is meaningful resistance overhead. As such, a pullback in the short term would not be surprising. With that said, we should also note that the NASDAQ is displaying some important leadership at this point, which is a positive. For now, the trend is your friend. But a break below 1955-60 would give us pause.

    S&P 500 - Daily

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: +0.03%
    - Hong Kong: +0.15%
    - Shanghai: -0.24%
    - London: -0.36%
    - Germany: -0.44%
    - France: -0.43%
    - Italy: -0.07%
    - Spain: -0.12%

    Crude Oil Futures: +$0.61 to $95.09

    Gold: +$0.10 at $1296.20

    Dollar: lower against the yen and pound, higher vs. euro.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.407%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: -3.85
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: -25
    - NASDAQ Composite: -6.93

    Thought For The Day:

    Don't jump to conclusions, there may be a perfectly good explanation for what you just saw. -Proverbs 25:8

    Current Market Drivers

    We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

    1. The State of the Geopolitical 'Issues'
    2. The State of Fed/ECB Policy
    3. The Level of Interest Rates
    4. The Outlook for U.S. Economic Growth

    The State of the Trend

    We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:

    Short-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)

    Intermediate-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)

    Long-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 12 months)

    Key Technical Areas:

    Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:

    • Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 1940(ish)
    • Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 1985
    The State of the Tape

    Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...

    Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Positive
    Signal Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.

    Price Thrust Indicator: Moderately Positive
    Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.

    Volume Thrust Indicator: Neutral
    Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.

    Breadth Thrust Indicator: Positive
    Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.

    Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Moderately Positive
    Indicator Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.

    Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups: Neutral
    Model Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.

    The Early Warning Indicators

    Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.

    • S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
      - Short-Term: Overbought
      - Intermediate-Term: Moderately Oversold
    • Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Positive .
    The State of the Market Environment

    One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.

    Weekly State of the Market Model Reading: Positive
    Model Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
    Heritage Capital Research - A CONCERT Advisor
    Be Sure To Check Out the NEW Website!

    Aug 20 9:17 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Valuation Debate: Robert Shiller Is Very Worried

    Daily State of the Markets
    Monday, August 18, 2014

    The topic of the day from a short-term perspective is the state of the geopolitical issues in Ukraine/Russia and to a lesser extent Iraq and Gaza/Israel. The way this game is played is simple, really. When headlines speak of troop movements, stocks go down. Then when the news wire reports that tensions have eased (as is the case this morning), stocks go up. And most importantly, it is vital to remember that once the geopolitical issue that captured the market's attention for a spell is over, oftentimes so too is the corrective phase brought on by the bad news.

    Will the news that Ukraine and Russia have come to some sort of agreement on the convoy of humanitarian aid mean that traders and their fancy trading machines will soon turn their attention to something else? Will the easing of tensions mean another round of new highs for the major stock indices? Time will tell, of course. But things are looking up around the globe on Monday morning.

    The Bigger Picture Concern - Valuations

    However, from a longer-term perspective, the current level of stock market valuations is quickly becoming a topic of interest amongst analysts. Therefore, we will continue the thorough review of valuation indicators - something that could take a week or two to complete.

    In fact, Nobel-Prize winner Robert Shiller wrote a piece in this weekend's New York Times suggesting that stocks "look very expensive right now" and that investors should be worried.

    "The CAPE ratio, a stock-price measure I helped develop - is hovering at a worrisome level...nothing I've come up with is a slam-dunk explanation for the continuing high level of valuations. I suspect that the real answers lie largely in the realm of sociology and social psychology - in phenomena like irrational exuberance, which, eventually, has always faded before. If the mood changes again, stock market investments may disappoint us."

    The CAPE Ratio

    In case you are not aware, Shiller's CAPE ratio - the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio - is a long-term valuation metric designed to adjust for inflation.

    According to Wikipedia, "The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE, Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio, is a valuation measure usually applied to broad equity markets. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (Moving average), adjusted for inflation."

    In addition to Shiller's own warning that his CAPE Ratio is worrisome right, a handful of analysts, including Ned Davis, have also noted that the CAPE is currently flashing a warning.

    Before we continue with the analysis, there is one important caveat to provide in relation to the CAPE. In Shiller's own words, "The CAPE was never intended to indicate exactly when to buy and to sell. The market could remain at these valuations for years." In fact, Shiller penned a piece for the times more than a year ago noting that the CAPE Ratio had reached worrisome levels.

    Are Investors Sailing Into Cape Fear?

    The key point to Shiller's weekend article in the NYT is that the CAPE Ratio is currently above the 25.5 level. There are two reasons why this may be noteworthy from a long-term perspective.

    First, according to Shiller, the average reading for the CAPE Ratio since 1900 has been... survey says... 15.21. The low end of the range has been about 5, a level that was seen in the early 1920's and 1930's. In more recent times, the low seen in 1982 was near 7 and the low in 2008 was about 13.

    In looking at more than a century of data, the high end of the range for the CAPE prior to the 1990's had been the extreme move seen in the roaring 1920's. And if one excludes the spike to 34 during that period, the high-water mark was more like 23-25 until the mid-1990's

    The second key point that Shiller makes is that the CAPE Ratio has only been higher than the current level three other times in history: 1929, 2000, and 2007. Yikes.

    History shows that in all three prior instances, the stock market moved higher BEFORE a bear market ensued. But... the bear markets the followed such lofty levels of the CAPE were some of the nastiest on record.

    For example, in the 1928 example, the S&P 500 moved higher for nearly a year before succumbing to the Crash of 1929. In 1996, stocks moved higher for more than two years before the technology bubble bear began. And in the 2007 example, the market moved higher for 45 months after the CAPE first reached the worrisome levels.

    In addition, it is worth noting that since 1995, the CAPE ratio has spent the majority if the time either at or below 25.

    The Key Takeaway

    In short, Shiller's main point is this, "...we should recognize that we are in an unusual period, and that it's time to ask some serious questions about it."

    Next we will explore several more variations on the P/E ratio as well as several other valuation indicators in order to get a good feel for the data on the subject.

    Publishing Note: After spending an inordinate amount of time on airplanes this year for business, it is finally time to take some R&R. My wife and I are traveling through Iceland, England and Scotland for the next two and one-half weeks. Thus, I will publish reports only as time permits or as conditions warrant.

    Turning To This Morning

    The news flow overnight has been positive. First and foremost there is word that Russia and Ukraine have come to an agreement on the Russian convoy of 280 trucks carrying humanitarian aid trying to enter the Ukraine. In addition, foreign ministers from Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France made "some progress" in talks over the weekend to resolve the Ukraine/Russia crisis. In response, global markets as well as futures in the U.S. are nice shade of green in the early going.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: +0.03%
    - Hong Kong: +0.00%
    - Shanghai: +0.55%
    - London: +0.78%
    - Germany: +1.41%
    - France: +1.17%
    - Italy: +0.79%
    - Spain: +1.07%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.80 to $96.55

    Gold: -$7.40 at $1298.80

    Dollar: lower against the yen and pound, higher vs. euro.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.374%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +10.69
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +88
    - NASDAQ Composite: +19.79

    Thought For The Day:

    Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by ignorance.

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    President, Chief Investment Officer
    Heritage Capital Research
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

    Advertisement
    Will You Be Ready For The NEXT Bear Market?

    Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager Can Help
    Contact Heritage for more information or call us at (847) 807-3590


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Aug 18 9:01 AM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Are Stocks Really Overvalued?

    Daily State of the Markets
    Thursday, August 14, 2014

    Everybody knows that the current bull market has been one for the ages. Everybody who has been long stocks for the last few years has likely enjoyed the ride. Everybody knows that the current bull market is getting old. And yet, everybody also knows that this market has some "issues."

    In response, just about everybody in the game - including yours truly - has penned a piece or three encouraging investors to exhibit some caution toward the stock market. After the two brutal bear markets that ensued once the "good times" in the markets ended in 2000 and 2008, investors can't be blamed for being a little squeamish right about now.

    Take a look at the charts below and see if you don't start feeling a little acrophobic.

    The first chart shows the S&P 500 on a weekly basis since the start of the current run for the roses. This is what a gain of 190 percent looks like.

    S&P 500 - Weekly

    Sure it has been a struggle at times. And yes, there have been some scary moments including the Flash Crash, the various European Debt/Greece Crises, the U.S. Debt Downgrade, the Fiscal Cliff, etc. But the key is that had investors found a way to get into stocks at just about any point from March 2009 through 2012, they would have been handsomely rewarded.

    Gaining Some Perspective

    Speaking of handsome rewards, take a look at the next chart below. This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500 over a 25-year period. As is readily apparent, there have been some good times.

    S&P 500 - Monthly

    Oh, and as you are no doubt aware, there have been some bad times - no, make that some very, very bad times as well. Therefore, just about everybody in the game these days is worried about what happens when this bull runs out of room to run.

    The Big Concern - Valuations

    Other than the concept of the Fed exiting their uber-easy monetary policy next year, one of the most popular concerns about the stock market is the topic of valuation. In short, a great many folks contend that stocks are currently overvalued and some suggest that this market is wildly overvalued.

    The problem is there are about a zillion ways to measure stock market valuation. Therefore, like art, the judgement of whether or not stocks are "expensive" or "cheap" usually lies in the eyes of the beholder.

    Long-time readers know that this is not exactly the first go-round on this topic. In fact, we like to sit down with the valuation indicators every six months or so just to make sure there are no surprises. So, in light of the fact that vacation season is in full swing (for the record, mine starts next week as my wife and I are exploring Iceland, England, and Scotland for 2.5 weeks) and the algos are trained on the news out of Ukraine, we figured this would be a good time to re-examine the issue.

    The Price-To-Earnings Ratio: The Granddaddy of Valuation Indicators

    There are currently at least 15 valuation indicators on my desk to be reviewed, including everything from P/E's to P/D's to models-of-models. So, without further ado, let's get started.

    The Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E) is by far, the most well-known and popular market valuation indicator. The ratio measures what investors are willing to pay for $1 of earnings on the major indices. History shows that when investors start to pay more and more for that $1 of earnings, the market quickly becomes extended. And surely as night follows day, bear markets tend to ensue when valuations become excessive.

    It would be logical then for an investor to pare back their exposure to market risk when valuations are high and to put money to work in the market when valuations are low. (All those, uttering the word, "duh" right about now, raise your hands!)

    But here's the rub. Over- and undervaluation are moving targets. Oh, and overvalued in one environment is merely neutral in another. Thus, unless valuations are out-and-out ridiculous (think 1999), investing money based on valuations can be a fool's game.

    However, attempting to glean where we are in terms of valuations within a given cycle can certainly be helpful in terms of managing risk/reward.

    The Current Numbers

    Another challenge in this arena is there are a plethora of ways to look at earnings and P/E ratios. Forward-looking, Trailing, GAAP earnings, Operating earnings, Median, and "normalized" to name a few. But let's start with the basics.

    According to Ned Davis Research, the average P/E based on one-year forward earnings over the past 31.5 years has been 14.46. The low as seen in 1985 when the P/E was below 8 and the high was seen in 2000 when the forward P/E exceeded 22.5.

    Currently, the one-year forward P/E ratio stands at 15.3, which, based on historical measures puts the market in the neutral zone in terms of valuation. And for perspective purposes, the current forward P/E is about the same as where it stood in 2007 and 1992-94.

    Next up is the trailing one-year P/E ratio. And in this instance we're looking at operating earnings. So, let's break it down. The 31.5 year average is 18.12. The low was in 1985 at around 10 and the high was seen in 1999 and 2002 when it was above 29. The current reading is 17.2. So, this indicator is also smack in the middle of the range.

    The problem with "operating earnings," of course, is that in this day and age, these numbers are basically whatever a company would like them to be. Therefore, it is a good idea to look at GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings, as there is a lot less fudging (oops, I mean "financial engineering") going on.

    The low of the 31.5 year range was under 10 in 1984. The high was more than a little artificial in 2009 at 140. The non-financial crisis high was in 2002 at about 50. The average has been 22.73. And the current reading is, drum roll please... 19.1.

    So, from a base-level P/E view since 1983, valuations would have to be considered neutral on balance.

    Next time we will look at some more variations on the Price-to-Earnings ratio. But so far at least, there is no reason to be yelling fire.

    Turning To This Morning

    The news flow overnight has been fairly upbeat - or perhaps put a better way, not negative. The mood of the market improved a bit early this morning after Russian President Putin stated in a televised speech that Russia would do its utmost to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine. In addition, a fresh 5-day cease-fire between the Palestinians and Israel in Gaza was announced. Next, the Eurozone GDP data, while not great, was not any worse than anticipated. And finally, earnings season wraps up this week with largely better numbers coming out of the tech sector yesterday after the close and an abundance of retailer numbers today. U.S. futures currently point to a modestly higher open ahead of the Weekly Jobless Claims report.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: +0.67%
    - Hong Kong: -0.36%
    - Shanghai: -0.76%
    - London: +0.50%
    - Germany: +0.40%
    - France: +0.41%
    - Italy: +0.47%
    - Spain: +0.02%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.16 to $97.43

    Gold: -$3.20 at $1311.30

    Dollar: lower against the yen and euro, higher vs. pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.419%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +4.73
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +30
    - NASDAQ Composite: +6.90

    Thought For The Day:

    Are you feeling inspired today? If not, shouldn't you be?

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    President, Chief Investment Officer
    Heritage Capital Research
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

    Advertisement
    Will You Be Ready For The NEXT Bear Market?

    Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager Can Help
    Contact Heritage for more information or call us at (847) 807-3590


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Aug 14 8:13 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.