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David Moenning is a the Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital, which focuses on active risk management of the U.S. stock market. Dave is also the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com, which provides free and subscription-based portfolio services. Dave began his investment career in 1980... More
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  • Traders Have Seen This Movie Before

    Daily State of the Markets
    Tuesday, September 30, 2014

    Twice in the last two days, it looked like the bears were finally going to break through. Twice in the last two days, the S&P 500 teetered on the edge. Twice in the last two days, the market came roaring back. And twice in the last two days, the bears went home disappointed.

    Frankly, it has got to be frustrating to be a bear these days. For all of the talk of technical divergences, sentiment extremes, narrow leadership, geopolitical issues, social unrest, and secret meetings between Fed officials and Wall Street bankers, the bears have very little to show for their efforts recently.

    In fact, although the S&P 500 is in a short-term downtrend and has been below its 5, 10, and 18-day moving averages for six consecutive sessions, the venerable index is down less than 2 percent from its recent high (-1.67 percent to be exact) and still sports a gain of 7 percent on the year.

    Looking around, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 1.21 percent from its September 19th all-time high. And the technology ladened NASDAQ Composite has fallen a whopping 2.01 percent during what is being touted as a pretty miserable September.

    So what gives? Why are the major indices not being taken out behind the woodshed like their smallcap brethren? If everybody knows that the combination of narrowing leadership and technical divergences tends to be present at market tops, why is the S&P still holding up like a champ? Where is the fear? Where is the anxiety? And where is the selling?

    In short, it appears that traders have seen this movie before. They've seen this scenario play out over and over and over again in the last few years. And by now, pretty much everyone knows that the hero doesn't die in the end. And everyone also knows that the battle cry to making money in this market is to "just buy the freaking dip!"

    Take a look at the chart below. From a technical perspective, that trend channel is a thing of beauty, is it not?

    S&P 500 - Daily

    The red circles are also an important part of this picture. You see, this is the fourth time in 2014 that stocks have pulled back. And how have traders responded each and every time? Yep, that's right they bought the dip.

    As the next chart shows (this one is a weekly chart of the S&P), this strategy is not exactly exclusive to 2014's market. No, the #BTFD strategy has been with us for years now. And while it is interesting to note that the #BTFD opportunities have become shorter, shallower, and more frequent since the end of 2012, the dips just keep being bought.

    S&P 500 - Weekly

    So... while there are lots of issues in the market, unless/until the S&P 500 can break below that lower channel line - an important line in the sand that currently resides just below 1960 - traders will likely continue to... everybody now... "BUY THE FREAKING DIP!"

    The problem is that this type of trading behavior can't last forever. At some point, perhaps soon, something will come along to scare traders out of the #BTFD mentality. Something will become a catalyst. Something will change the game.

    So, what's it going to be? Currently traders are fretting about a host of issues including:

    • The protests in Hong Kong
    • The independence referendum in Catalan
    • The sell-off in Brazil
    • The asset flight from PIMCO
    • The potential for more volatility in October
    • The dollar
    • Russia not playing nice
    • ISIS warnings
    • The Technical damage

    Could any of these be the catalyst to get the bear party started? Given that yesterday morning's dip was promptly bought, it is hard to argue that any of the issues above would have the juice the bears need at this stage.

    So, what is a risk manager to do? Should they just give up worrying, join the crowd and buy the dip? Probably not. However, it will be important to continue to monitor the drivers of the daily action. You just never know what traders will latch onto next!

    Turning To This Morning

    Weak manufacturing data in China and soft inflation numbers in the Eurozone have triggered more talk of stimulus efforts from the PBoC and ECB. In addition, the announcement that eBay will spin off Paypal has traders focused more on monetary policy and the recent spate of M&A deals this morning than the ongoing unrest in Hong Kong. And with this being the last day of the month/quarter, U.S. stock futures are following Europe's lead in the early going.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: -0.87%
    Hong Kong: -1.28%
    Shanghai: +0.27%
    London: -0.01%
    Germany: +0.58%
    France: +1.21%
    Italy: +1.27%
    Spain: +1.09%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.11 to $94.46

    Gold: -$11.00 at $1207.80

    Dollar: lower against the yen, higher vs. euro, and pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.513%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: +5.75
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: +50
    NASDAQ Composite: +21.47

    Thought For The Day:

    "The four most dangerous words in investing are: This time it's different." -Sir John Templeton

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    President, Chief Investment Officer
    Heritage Capital Research
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

    Advertisement
    Will You Be Ready For The NEXT Bear Market?

    Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager Can Help
    Contact Heritage for more information or call us at (847) 807-3590


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Sep 30 8:15 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Is This Dip-Buying Opportunity Different?

    With the exception of Japan and Shanghai, the major stock markets around the globe find themselves on the defensive again this morning. And other than the usual speculation about additional stimulus in China and Japan, it is the growing pro-democracy protests and the accompanying police response in Hong Kong that represents the only real news in the early going this week. As such, the focal point continues to be the ongoing corrective action in the stock market.

    Analysts continue to highlight the fact that the current pullback in stocks could indeed be different from the short and sweet declines seen since the end of 2012. The growing divergences between the blue chip and smallcap indices, the length of time since the last meaningful correction, and the underlying weakness seen in many indicators are Exhibits A, B, and C in the argument that dip-buyers may need to be patient this time around.

    Here at home, we will get one of the Fed's favorite inflation indicators will come from the Personal Income and Spending report. And so far at least, futures are pointing to a negative open on Wall Street.

    Current Market Outlook

    The action has been erratic to say the least over the past week or so with the S&P 500 flip-flopping between red and green closes each of the last four sessions. And if the pre-market session is any indication, it appears that this trend will continue again today. Although the S&P is just 6 days removed from the most recent all-time high, the current market environment remains shaky at best. The divergent action as well as the weakness in our market models tells us that this remains a neutral environment and that some caution continues to be warranted.

    Looking At The Charts

    Friday's rally, which, like Thursday's dance to the downside, appears to have been overdone, gave the bulls some breathing room. The bottom line is that coming into Friday's session, most of the major indices were either breaking down or threatening to do so. Therefore, Friday's bounce provided those seeing the market's glass as half full with hope that the dip-buying opportunity that traders have become accustomed to had arrived once again. We will continue to watch Thursday's low (which was "tested" on Friday) as the key line in the sand at this stage. Should the bears find a way to break below this point in a meaningful fashion, you can rest assured that additional technical selling will be triggered.

    S&P 500 - Daily

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: +0.50%
    Hong Kong: -1.90%
    Shanghai: +0.44%
    London: -0.31%
    Germany: -0.52%
    France: -0.65%
    Italy: -1.05%
    Spain: -1.05%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.03 to $93.51

    Gold: +$6.20 at $1221.60

    Dollar: lower against the yen and euro, higher vs. pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.505%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: -10.95
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: -95
    NASDAQ Composite: -23.47

    Thought For The Day:

    Security is not the meaning of my life. Great opportunities are worth the risk. -Shirley Hufstedle

    Current Market Drivers

    We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

    1. The State of Fed/ECB Policy
    2. The Price Action in the Major Stock Market Indices
    3. The Level of Interest Rates
    4. The Level of the U.S. Dollar
    5. The Outlook for U.S. Economic Growth

    The State of the Trend

    We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:

    Short-Term Trend: Negative
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)

    Intermediate-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)

    Long-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 2 years)

    Key Technical Areas:

    Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:

    • Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 1965
    • Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 1985-2000
    The State of the Tape

    Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...

    • Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Negative
    • Price Thrust Indicator: Negative
    • Volume Thrust Indicator: Negative
    • Breadth Thrust Indicator: Negative
    • Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Moderately Positive
    • Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups: Neutral
    The Early Warning Indicators

    Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.

    • S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
      - Short-Term: Moderately Oversold
      - Intermediate-Term: Moderately Oversold
    • Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Positive .
    The State of the Market Environment

    One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.

    • Weekly State of the Market Model Reading: Neutral

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
    Heritage Capital Research - A CONCERT Advisor
    Be Sure To Check Out the NEW Website!


    Is Your Portfolio Ready for the Next Financial Storm??

    Check out Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager


    Indicator Explanations

     

    Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term) Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.

    Price Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.

    Volume Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.

    Breadth Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.

    Bull/Bear Volume Relationship Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.

    Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.

    Weekly State of the Market Model Reading Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.


    Looking For "Smart" Allocation Strategy?

    Check out Heritage Capital Research's SmartMix Program
    (SmartMix is designed to keep client accounts in HCR's top performing strategies at all times)


    Disclosures

    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.


    Will You Be Ready For The NEXT Bear Market?

    Heritage Capital Research Can Help


     

    Sep 29 9:02 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Is This THE Correction?

    Daily State of the Markets
    Friday, September 26, 2014

    Wait, what? On Wednesday, stocks blasted higher on the back of Super Mario singing a dovish song, word that China was about to sack the head of its central bank in favor of someone more modern, and not one, not two, but three Fed Governors suggesting that the Fed would likely take their time when it comes to raising rates.

    Bam, just like that the worries about the effects of a rising dollar, where rates might go next, and all things geopolitical were put on the back burner. No, on Wednesday it was time to just BTFD! Stocks recovered all of Tuesday's losses as well as some of Monday's decline, and it looked like the bulls were back in business.

    But a funny thing happened on the way to the rally recovery on Thursday. In short, traders forgot about all the good stuff from Wednesday and the market got blasted. Technical levels were broken. Good charts turned into bad charts. The league-leading NASDAQ suddenly looks sick. And the much-maligned Russell 2000 smallcap index continued diving, winding up near the low of the year.

    For the record, the Russell is now down -5.5% on the month and -4.5% on the year. So anyone thinking that the S&P's "healthy" advance was representative of the overall market has another thing coming. Heck, the Dow is only up 2.2% in 2014.

    Frankly, the charts below really tells the story of this market. First, as indicated on the chart of the S&P 500, it appears that yet another pullback - the 5th in the last 10 months - is underway.

    S&P 500 - Daily

    And then, as we've been discussing, the divergence on the chart of the Russell 2000 grows more glaring with each passing day. And frankly, these two charts don't even look like the same asset class.

    Russell 2000 - Daily

    As we've discussed, the issue here is that such divergences tend to be present during major tops in the stock market.

    Another big data point to consider on the subjects of divergences and narrow leadership is the fact that, according to Bloomberg, 47% of the stocks on the NASDAQ are currently down 20% or more from their peaks in 2014. And again, narrow leadership is another classic indicator of a market top.

    And while I am reticent to bring it up because it's a little on the ridiculous side, there has been an awful lot of jawing about the so-called "death cross" (which occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average) seen on the Russell. However, there it should be pointed out that such an occurrence when the 200-day is rising has been a pretty good buy signal - but that doesn't stop the press from fawning all over the possibility of something REALLY bad happening (and given the recent ratings of CNBC, they could use a good crisis right about now!).

    Why the Dive?

    When the stock market makes a big move in either direction, there is usually a reason. However, yesterday's dance to the downside did not have any single catalyst. The selling seemed to be a culmination of a bunch of things, some of which include:

    • Thursday was the last day a position could be sold in order to get it off a manager's "book" by the end of the quarter (i.e. window undressing)
    • The U.S. dollar continued its joyride to the upside, hitting a 4-year high
    • BoE's Carney said the economy is getting closer to where rates will need to start rising
    • Russia basically said, "You sanction us, we will seize your stuff"
    • ISIS warned of terrorist attacks on U.S. and France soil targeting subways, trains, buses
    • The internal components of Durable Goods report suggests GDP might be hotter than expected, causing traders to worry again about the Fed raising rates sooner than anticipated
    • S&P broke two important technical levels: (1) near-term support at 1980 and (2) its 50-day moving average
    • Ditto for the NASDAQ
    • There was talk of a "large institutional seller" exiting positions in 200 stocks
    • Credit risk was in focus as high yield bonds broke down (see symbols JNK, HYG)
    • The Yen was heading in the wrong direction again (the Yen-Carry trade remains a thing)
    • There were rumors that a hedge fund was in trouble
    • The action in commodities - although tied to the dollar's rise - continues to cause growth concerns
    • Apple's iOS 8 debacle also created some negative sentiment

    Taken alone, none of the above would normally warrant significant selling in stocks. However, these days, once a trend in the market gets started, the computers jump on board and ride the wave for all its worth. And in my humble opinion, this is why so many moves (January 24, April 10, July 31 and yesterday for example) become exaggerated on an intraday basis.

    The Big Question

    The question of the day, of course, is if the current selloff is "THE" correction that everyone under the sun has been looking for. In fact, a former Federal Reserve economist and fellow CONCERT Wealth Management Investment Committee member posed that very question to the committee via email after the close yesterday.

    In my response, I pointed out that what's different this time compared to the other pullbacks we've seen this year, is the rise in the dollar, the classic divergences present, the narrow leadership, and the weakness in many underlying indicators. I said that this combination has, in the past, led to meaningful declines as well as bear markets.

    Yet at the same time, I was forced to point out that a topping process can take a considerable length of time and that the above stated concerns are not, in and of themselves, catalysts.

    Finally, I pointed out that we don't make predictions or "market calls" at my firm (I learned a long time ago that Ms. Market doesn't give a hoot about what I think might happen next in her game) and that our goal was to stay in line with what "IS" happening in the market as well as our market environment models, which have been neutral for some time now.

    The conclusion was that while no one can be certain whether or not this is THE correction, the indicators DO suggest that this is a time to play the game less aggressively. So, the bottom line is that now is the time to let price be your guide. Unlike so many indicators, price, by definition, cannot deviate from itself and therefore, will tell us when THE correction is upon us.

    Turning To This Morning

    Although stocks were trashed on Wall Street yesterday, the global markets didn't really follow suit. Sure, Japan and Hong Kong were lower. However, European bourses are higher across the board on the back of talk that Thursday's move in the U.S. was overdone. Here at home traders will be focusing on the second revision of the nation's GDP, which is expected to come in at 4.6%. Of interest here is whether or not the report is "hotter" than expected.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: -0.88%
    Hong Kong: -0.38%
    Shanghai: +0.12%
    London: +0.11%
    Germany: +0.18%
    France: +0.75%
    Italy: +0.78%
    Spain: +0.67%

    Crude Oil Futures: +$0.45 to $92.98

    Gold: -$2.40 at $1219.90

    Dollar: lower against the yen, higher vs. euro, and pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.499%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: +5.51
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: +66
    NASDAQ Composite: +14.48

    Thought For The Day:

    Things turn out best for the people who make the best of the way things turn out. -John Wooden

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    President, Chief Investment Officer
    Heritage Capital Research
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

    Advertisement
    Will You Be Ready For The NEXT Bear Market?

    Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager Can Help
    Contact Heritage for more information or call us at (847) 807-3590


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., an SEC registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Sep 26 8:31 AM | Link | Comment!
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