Seeking Alpha

David Moenning's  Instablog

David Moenning
Send Message
David Moenning is a the Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital, which focuses on active risk management of the U.S. stock market. Dave is also the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com, which provides free and subscription-based portfolio services. Dave began his investment career in 1980... More
My company:
StateoftheMarkets.com
My blog:
Daily State of the Markets
View David Moenning's Instablogs on:
  • Another Greek Deadline Approaches, So...

    The headlines after the close of business yesterday read something to the effect of, "No Signs of Greek Deal." This proclamation was supported by a series of stories throughout the day detailing the breakdown of negotiations. The wires reported that the rhetoric had become heated and that neither side appears willing to give an inch. But the stories went on to suggest that with the weekend upon us, a "last minute deal" was still possible. And so it goes, blah, blah, blah, blah.

    To be sure, we have seen the drama between the Eurozone/IMF/ECB and Greece play out numerous times before over the past 5 years. And what we have learned is that the process as well as the end result is always the same. So let's review.

    The game starts with traders worrying over the potential for Greece to either default on their debt or leave the Eurozone. This causes stocks to decline in earnest. Next, there are a series of emergency meetings where the two sides always appear close to a deal. This creates a sigh of relief and stocks tend to rally back.

    But, since there doesn't seem to be any incentive to ever get anything done before the default clock strikes midnight, one or both sides usually storms out of the meetings and traders go back to fretting. Next comes the weekend before some sort of deadline. This causes traders to worry about the potential for "weekend headline risk" and stocks are usually sold. From there, something good usually happens and there is a thunderous rally to start the week as traders realize it was silly to worry in the first place.

    Where are we now, you ask? Well, it is Friday and the June 30th deadline for Greece to pay somebody a whole bunch of euros it doesn't have is fast approaching. So, today we can expect to hear a lot of table-pounding, maybe some insults, a few threats, and a whole bunch of political posturing as we head into the weekend.

    What this means from a chart perspective is that at times like these, traders have a propensity to position the market in the middle of the current trading range.

    S&P 500 Index - Daily

    View Larger Image

    You see, with the major indices "stuck in the middle," it will then be relatively easy to bust things higher or lower in spirited fashion on Monday in response to the current "deal or no deal" weekend drama.

    Speaking of weekend drama, EU officials appear to have set Saturday's meeting as the last chance to get a deal done - or trigger a "plan B" which would attempt to manage a Greek default. According to Reuters, German Chancellor Merkel has said the Saturday meeting would be "of decisive importance" for a Greek solution since time was running out. In addition, Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem said Friday that the door is still open for the Greek side to come with new proposals or accept what is on the table. Dijsselbloem added that a Greek deal needs to include more reforms and emphasized Saturday as the 'make or break' deadline. And an FT article today cited officials who said there was no chance of creditors accepting the latest Greek proposal and that they were readying plans to "ring fence" Greece to manage an economic upheaval unleashed by a default to the rest of the Eurozone.

    So, there you have it; the stage appears to be set once again for some weekend fireworks. And while it is true that Ms. Market enjoys surprising folks when they think they've got her game figured out, I'd be willing to bet that the current chapter of the ongoing Greek drama will play out as scripted. Enjoy the show and please pass the popcorn.

    This Morning's Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: -0.31%
    Hong Kong: -1.77%
    Shanghai: -7.39%
    London: -0.58%
    Germany: -0.25%
    France: +0.34%
    Italy: +0.09%
    Spain: +0.36%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.55 to $59.15

    Gold: -$0.20 at $1171.60

    Dollar: lower against the yen, higher va euro and pound

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.435%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: +2.55
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: +45
    NASDAQ Composite: -0.80

    Thought For The Day:

    "Some men see things as they are and ask why. I dream things that never were and ask why not?" -Robert F. Kennedy/George Bernard Shaw

    Current Market Drivers

    We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

    1. The State of the Greek Crisis
    2. The State of Fed/ECB/PBoC Policy
    3. The State of Interest Rates
    4. The State of the U.S. Economy

    The State of the Trend

    We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:

    Short-Term Trend: Neutral
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)

    Intermediate-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)

    Long-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 2 years)

    Key Technical Areas:

    Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:

    • Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 2070
    • Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 2135
    The State of the Tape

    Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...

    • Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Neutral
    • Price Thrust Indicator: Positive
    • Volume Thrust Indicator: Neutral
    • Breadth Thrust Indicator: Neutral
    • Intermediate-Term Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Moderately Positive
    • Technical Health of 100+ Industry Groups: Moderately Positive
    The Early Warning Indicators

    Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.

    • S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
      - Short-Term: Moderately Overbought
      - Intermediate-Term: Moderately Oversold
    • Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Positive .
    The State of the Market Environment

    One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.

    • Weekly Market Environment Model Reading: Moderately Positive

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
    Heritage Capital Research


    Indicator Explanations

    Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term) Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.

    Price Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.

    Volume Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.

    Breadth Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.

    Bull/Bear Volume Relationship Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.

    Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.

    Weekly State of the Market Model Reading Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.


    Disclosures

    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., a registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Jun 26 8:53 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Looking Past Greece, The Next Focus Will Be...

    Are we having fun yet? If you are invested in the market for anything other than the daily hysterics relating to the latest developments in Greece, the answer is likely no. While it is almost unfathomable, the action in the U.S. stock market continues to be controlled by the most recent developments in the ongoing Greek drama.

    In case you disagree with this assessment, consider the action of the last 5 sessions. A week ago Thursday, stocks stepped lively in response to Germany's Angela Merkel saying that she is personally invested in getting a deal done. But then when no deal arrived on Friday, stocks pulled back due to the potential for "weekend headline risk" (and yes, feel free to insert an eye roll here). On Monday, the arrows turned green again as new proposals were submitted by Athens and EU officials acknowledged them as a good start. But then with plenty of time left on the default clock, the negotiations in the press between the two sides have picked up again. So, with creditors complaining that the latest proposals don't go nearly far enough yesterday, yep, you guessed it; stocks pulled back in earnest.

    S&P 500 Index - Daily

    View Larger Image

    So, where does this leave us? The short answer is that the Dow and S&P 500 are just about where they were one week ago. And although almost everyone expects a deal to get done across the pond, the bottom line is it ain't done yet. Thus, stocks have effectively spun their wheels and wasted yet another week of calendar year 2015.

    Is There Anything Else To Focus On?

    If you are anything like me, you have likely had your fill of the various Greek crises. You likely don't give a hoot who or when Greece is expected to pay or not pay next. And your interest in just about anything anyone in the EU has to say on the topic is definitely waning.

    So, in an attempt to look beyond the news flow and the blinking screens, we thought it might time to address the other important issues facing this market.

    From an intermediate-term perspective, the primary focal point of the markets continues to be on (NYSE:A) the state of the U.S. economy and (NYSE:B) when the Fed will begin to "normalize" the Fed Funds rate. Sure, there are other items worthy of note, but these are the biggies at this time.

    In looking at the economy, the data from the housing, the services sector, and the labor market all remain fairly constructive. However, the stats on manufacturing as well as the overall GDP print from Q1 continue to pose some concern. And yet, our economic models suggest there is a zero chance of recession at the present time. As such, it is probably best to place the economy in the "plow horse" category for now.

    Turning to the Fed, there can be little argument that Janet Yellen's crew wants to move away from ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) sooner rather than later. But, unfortunately the data simply does not warrant taking action yet. Therefore, economists are looking to the September FOMC meeting as the next possible point for the Fed to announce the "liftoff" in rates. And until then, you can rest assured that analysts will continue to review each and every economic report with a fine toothed comb.

    Is The Trend Still Our Friend?

    From a trend perspective, most analysts will have to admit that the indices remain in fairly good shape. Recall that the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 and the S&P Mid-cap indices are all just one day removed from all-time highs. However, we would also be remiss if we failed to remind everyone that the momentum indicators are less than robust here.

    So, while the trend may be an investor's friend at the present time, we continue to believe that risk levels for a meaningful pullback remain elevated. Therefore, investors of all shapes and sizes might be well advised to play the game a bit more conservatively for a while.

    This Morning's Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: -0.46%
    Hong Kong: -0.94%
    Shanghai: -3.46%
    London: -0.14%
    Germany: +0.05%
    France: -0.07%
    Italy: +0.86%
    Spain: +0.05%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.38 to $59.89

    Gold: +$0.40 at $1173.80

    Dollar: higher against the yen and euro, lower vs. pound

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.396%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: +5.82
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: +71
    NASDAQ Composite: +15.65

    Thought For The Day:

    "Yesterday is history. Tomorrow is a mystery. Today is a gift. That's why it is called the present." --Alice Morse Earle

    Current Market Drivers

    We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

    1. The State of the Greek Crisis
    2. The State of Fed/ECB/PBoC Policy
    3. The State of Interest Rates
    4. The State of the U.S. Economy

    The State of the Trend

    We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:

    Short-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)

    Intermediate-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)

    Long-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 2 years)

    Key Technical Areas:

    Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:

    • Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 2070
    • Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 2135
    The State of the Tape

    Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...

    • Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Positive
    • Price Thrust Indicator: Positive
    • Volume Thrust Indicator: Neutral
    • Breadth Thrust Indicator: Neutral
    • Intermediate-Term Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Moderately Positive
    • Technical Health of 100+ Industry Groups: Moderately Positive
    The Early Warning Indicators

    Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.

    • S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
      - Short-Term: Moderately Overbought
      - Intermediate-Term: Moderately Oversold
    • Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Positive .
    The State of the Market Environment

    One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.

    • Weekly Market Environment Model Reading: Moderately Positive

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
    Heritage Capital Research


    Indicator Explanations

    Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term) Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.

    Price Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.

    Volume Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.

    Breadth Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.

    Bull/Bear Volume Relationship Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.

    Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.

    Weekly State of the Market Model Reading Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.


    Disclosures

    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., a registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Jun 25 8:52 AM | Link | Comment!
  • A Break In The Action (Or Same 'Ol, Same 'Ol)?

    On Sunday evening, it appeared that there had been a breakthrough in the stand-off between Greece and its creditors. The wires indicated that officials in Athens had relented and despite an awful lot of rhetoric to the contrary, had submitted new proposals to the EU designed to allow the latest in a long string of bailout deals to proceed.

    In Europe on Monday, it appeared that things were suddenly "all good." As the new week began, there was hope that default could be avoided as even the crabbiest EU officials labeled the new proposals as a good sign. Not surprisingly, European bourses soared at the open with most indices gaining 2 percent or more on the day.

    As is usually the case to start the week, U.S. futures followed suit and it looked like Friday's meltdown into the close would quickly become a distant memory. Soon after the opening bell rang on Wall Street, the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 166 points and the S&P 500 was looking good. What's more, the NASDAQ Composite was stepping lively to a new all-time high and was being joined by the mid-cap and small-cap indices.

    As such, all appeared to be right with the world and our friends in the bull camp were busy telling anybody that would listen that this was it... That the long-awaited breakout from the trading range that had engulfed the major indices for months was about to end. After all, we were told, the Fed is out of the way and Greece was about to be put on the back burner again.

    But a funny thing happened on the way to the Greek celebration. Instead of breaking out to new highs and putting the trading range in the rear view mirror, traders decided to do what they've been doing for months now - sell into any move that even approached new highs.

    S&P 500 Index - Daily

    View Larger Image

    While the party raged on across the pond, the Dow and S&P 500 began to sell off. And while the session did indeed finish with a nice green hue, even the most ardent bulls had to be disappointed with the action.

    Sure, the NASDAQ Composite, the S&P 400 Mid-cap, and the Russell 2000 all finished at fresh new highs. But the bottom line is that the trading in the blue chip indices appeared to be simply more of the same.

    So... Is the lackluster performance due to valuation levels or uncertainty surrounding the Fed? Or are worries about earnings and the state of the economy to blame? Or... Is the current action just the way Wall Street's computers have decided to play the game right now?

    While nobody knows for sure, it will be interesting to see if yesterday's "positive divergence" can continue. If so, then we would expect to see the "generals" (the Dow and S&P 500) eventually join the "troops" in new high territory. If not, then, well, we can expect to see the up-one-minute, down-the-next type of market to continue.

    This Morning's Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    Japan: +1.86%
    Hong Kong: +0.93%
    Shanghai: +2.18%
    London: +0.30%
    Germany: +1.32%
    France: +1.33%
    Italy: +0.84%
    Spain: +0.78%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.332 to $60.06

    Gold: -$4.30 at $1179.80

    Dollar: lower against the yen, higher vs. euro and pound

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.395%

    Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    S&P 500: +1.00
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: +4
    NASDAQ Composite: +5.06

    Thought For The Day:

    Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly. - Robert F. Kennedy

    Current Market Drivers

    We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

    1. The State of the Greek Crisis
    2. The State of Fed/ECB/PBoC Policy
    3. The State of Interest Rates
    4. The State of the U.S. Economy

    The State of the Trend

    We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:

    Short-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)

    Intermediate-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)

    Long-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 2 years)

    Key Technical Areas:

    Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:

    • Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 2070
    • Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 2135
    The State of the Tape

    Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...

    • Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Positive
    • Price Thrust Indicator: Positive
    • Volume Thrust Indicator: Neutral
    • Breadth Thrust Indicator: Neutral
    • Intermediate-Term Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Moderately Positive
    • Technical Health of 100+ Industry Groups: Moderately Positive
    The Early Warning Indicators

    Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.

    • S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
      - Short-Term: Moderately Overbought
      - Intermediate-Term: Moderately Oversold
    • Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Positive .
    The State of the Market Environment

    One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.

    • Weekly Market Environment Model Reading: Moderately Positive

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
    Heritage Capital Research


    Indicator Explanations

    Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term) Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.

    Price Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.

    Volume Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.

    Breadth Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.

    Bull/Bear Volume Relationship Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.

    Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.

    Weekly State of the Market Model Reading Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.


    Disclosures

    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., a registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.

    Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Jun 23 9:08 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.