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David Moenning is a the Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital Management. Dave is also the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com, which provides free and subscription-based portfolio services. Dave began his investment career in 1980 and has been an independent money manager since 1987.... More
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  • Are You Ready For The Bears To Return?

    Daily State of the Markets
    Friday, April 4, 2014

    It is said that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. To be accurate, it was George Santayana (a Spanish philosopher who lived from 1863 - 1952) who actually said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

    The point is that anyone who came into the stock market game over the past five years probably has a pretty rosy view of the experience. But, almost everyone else who has been invested in equities for the past fifteen years or so probably has an entirely different view of the market's "history."

    Regardless of your personal history with the game, the key question after five-plus years of a bull run is pretty simple: Gee, this has been fun - But are you ready for the next bear market?

    Why Worry Now?

    Sure, stocks are doing well right now. And it's been one heck of a ride lately. The S&P 500 closed Thursday just a whisker off its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Midcap 400 indices both wandered into the Promised Land on Thursday as well. However, given that this bull market is now getting very long in the tooth, now might be an excellent time to make sure you've got a plan in place to try and avoid the beatings investors took in 2000-02 and 2008-09.

    Think about that for a moment. And be honest. Do you have a plan for when to do what the next time the bears come out of hibernation?

    Everybody in the game now knows that there are all kinds of tools such as inverse ETFs (for example SH, SDS, and SPXU) that are designed to profit from severe market declines. But do you know exactly when or how you will get those synthetic short positions put on? Do you have a signal to tell you when it is time to head to the sidelines for a while?

    To clarify, I'm not suggesting that you run out and start putting some hedges on your long positions. Although no one would blame you if the thought of selling some covered calls, raising a little cash, or cutting back on the beta has crossed your mind of late.

    No, the question of the day is, do you have a plan for exactly what you will do when this bull eventually morphs into a bear?

    Getting the Big Moves Right

    Spoiler alert to long-time readers: I'm climbing up on the soap box again.

    To be sure, the stock market game can be incredibly difficult. For example, what on earth does the Japanese Yen have to do with the price of tea in China, or more appropriately for our discussion, the price of U.S. stocks? The answer is, a lot. You see, the Yen-Carry Trade continues to be a major deal in Ms. Market's game these days. But that's a story for another time.

    The point is that there is a mountain of issues/data to stay on top of if you want to truly understand the stock market's movements on a day-to-day basis. But the good news is you don't need to keep up on all the minutiae in order to be successful. No, you just have to have a plan to get the really big, really important moves right.

    Wanna make the stock market game uber-simple and get REALLY rich over the next 20 years? Take a look at the chart below and see if the road to riches doesn't leap off the screen at you.

    S&P 500 Monthly 1994-2014

    Over the past 20 years, investors would have made a pretty penny staying invested in the stock market. In fact, from 6/1/1994 through yesterday 4/3/2014, a buy-and-hope investor buying the S&P 500 cash index would have made +325.14 percent. Not bad. Not bad at all.

    Granted, the ride would have been gut-wrenching. But, if you were busy with the job, kids, soccer, little league, vacations, etc. and simply forgot about the silly stock market, things would have worked out all right.

    Bear Markets Suck!

    Let's be honest though, bear markets are no fun. Watching your account invested in the S&P 500 drop -46 percent as the tech bubble burst in 200-02 stunk. And then after spending 5 years getting back to where you were in 2000, the -57 percent loss that accompanied the credit crisis bear market probably felt like a kick in the stomach.

    But hey, if you stuck with it (did you? did you really?) things turned out okay. Again, a return of +325 percent is nothing to shake a stick at, right?

    Math Can Be Your Friend

    As you can probably surmise by now, there is a better way. Instead of sitting there and watching your account get mauled by the bears, why not do something (ANYTHING!) about it?

    What do you suppose would happen if we attempted to capture 70 percent of the bull market gains and avoid one-half of the bear market losses? The answer is pretty cool. That +325 percent gain turns into +450.47 percent. And if my trusty desk calculator is correct, that's a 39 percent improvement over the buy-and-hope approach.

    Granted, this is a VERY simplistic concept and the calculations don't take into account commissions or interest earned on cash. However, the point is you CAN do better if you have a plan of attack.

    To further make my point, let's take that this idea one step farther. Let's say you can capture only 70% of the bull market period gains, but found a way to only lose 10 percent of what the market lost during bear markets. Ready? Believe it or not, the gain over the past twenty years improves to +873 percent, which is 2.7 times more than the buy-and-hope approach.

    Thus, it would appear that the concept of avoiding losses has merit, eh?

    Okay, now let's go crazy. Let's say you still can't find a way to capture any more than 70% of the bull market's gains, but you also found a way to make a little money on the big, bad, bear market declines. Let's assume the bear market takes you by surprise and things get nasty quickly. But then you find your bearings and buy one of those inverse ETFs that create an effective short position. Thus, when the market goes down, you actually make money.

    Let's say that you find a way to profit on 30 percent of the bear market decline. For example, instead of losing -46.28 percent in the 2000-02 bear market, you actually made +13.8 percent.

    Now, instead of a gain of +325 percent that the market offered since 6/1/94 or the +872 percent one would have made by capturing 70 percent of the upside and just 10 percent of the downside, you would have made +1,342 percent. Again, if the calculator is correct, that's more than 4X what the market did on its own. Hmmm... Now we're talking!

    Yes, this is overly simplistic. No, achieving big returns is not easy. But here's the key... the ONLY way to achieve returns that are better than buy-and-hope is to have a plan. So next week, we'll explore a couple of ideas.

    Looking for a disciplined approach to managing stock market risk on a daily basis? Check Out My "Daily Decision" System. Forget the fast money and the latest, greatest option trade. What investors need is a strategy to keep them "in" the stock market during bull markets and on the sidelines (or short) during bear markets.

    Turning to This Morning...

    It appears that most traders in most markets are simply waiting on the government's release of the Nonfarm Payroll report, which includes the latest read on unemployment rate, before making any further commitments. Although the Fed has made it clear the it is no longer targeting the rate of unemployment to trigger its next move, the jobs data remains the Big Kahuna of economic data each month. Currently, analysts are looking for new job growth in the 200K range. U.S. futures point to a modestly higher open in front of the report.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: -0.05%
    - Hong Kong: -0.24%
    - Shanghai: +0.70%
    - London: +0.37%
    - Germany: +0.44%
    - France: +0.28%
    - Italy: +0.10%
    - Spain: +0.04%

    Crude Oil Futures: +$0.88 to $101.17

    Gold: +$7.90 at $1292.50

    Dollar: lower against the yen, higher vs. euro and pound

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.797%

    Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +5.08
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +33
    - NASDAQ Composite: +12.12

    Thought For The Day...

    Pleasure in the job puts perfection in the work. -Aristotle

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    The information contained in this report is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Apr 04 7:52 AM | Link | Comment!
  • What Do The Cycles Say About April 2014?

    Daily State of the Markets
    Wednesday, April 2, 2014

    Stocks apparently broke out of what had been a fairly painful trading range on Tuesday as the S&P 500 pushed above both the old intraday and closing highs. Of course, the bears will argue that the move was unconvincing and that no other major index followed suit. To which, anybody adorned in a bulls cap will counter by pointing to the venerable DJIA as well as the Transports.

    The reason for Tuesday's jaunt higher was that another one of the bullet points on the bear camp's list of worries was refuted.

    Recall that on Monday, worries about the geopolitical issues in Russia/Ukraine as well as the concerns that Janet Yellen wouldn't continue to be Janet Yellen once she took over Ben Bernanke's seat at the head of the FOMC's table, were brushed aside. Just like that, two of the big stumbling blocks to higher stock prices had been removed.

    Another One Bites the Dust

    But the bears still had China. Well, until Wednesday that is.

    As you are undoubtedly aware, China's economy, which is the world's second biggest, is slowing. The fear has been that in their quest to avoid a bubble bursting in the Chinese real estate markets, the powers that be might overshoot and slow the economy too much. And while 6 percent GDP growth would be considered gangbusters anywhere else in the world, most economist agree that a decline of that magnitude would be disastrous for the global economy.

    The bear camp has argued that China's Central Bank is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they moved to stimulate growth in the economy, it would cause the growing bubble in real estate to get out of hand. And if they pushed on the brakes too hard, debt defaults, which are beginning to occur for the very first time, could create a credit crisis.

    So, when both China's Official and HSBC Manufacturing PMI's came in on the punk side again, the bears couldn't be blamed for thinking this was good news for their short positions. However, what our furry friends hadn't counted on was the idea that government officials would start talking again about stimulating the economy. And overnight Monday, that is exactly what transpired.

    From a big-picture perspective, the bears had lost another argument. First Russia, then the Fed, and now China. And in response, stocks broke out to the upside. However, this seems to be a point of contention among traders.

    Was That a Breakout?

    The early point on this fine Wednesday morning is that a breakout is a breakout, until, of course, it is not. Take a look at the chart below. While many will argue this represents a textbook breakout, others may disagree.

    S&P 500 Daily

    So, anyone expecting to take a cue from Tuesday's action may be fooling themselves. Remember, the trick to this game is about staying in tune with what the market IS doing - not trying to predict what it will do next.

    However... as we have discussed a time or two, the stock market does tend to move in cycles. Oftentimes, the market will inexplicably follow certain cycles like a little puppy dog wagging its tail. And therefore, it can be beneficial to know (a) whether or not this is one of those times when the market is in sync with the historical cycles and (b) what the cycle has to say about the coming month, quarter, and year.

    So, since everyone in the game right now is basically waiting on either a clue as to whether Tuesday's action was a breakout or Friday's jobs report, we thought this would be a good time to take a peek at what the historical cycles say about what April may hold in store.

    Time To Review The Cycle Projections

    Since this is the umpteenth monthly review of the cycle composite, there is probably little need to go over all the disclosures/disclaimers again regarding the proper use of stock market cycle analysis. The bottom line is that the review of cycles should NOT be used in a vacuum or as a stand-alone indicator. Using only the cycle composite projection, or any other indicator for that matter, to guide your investing decisions is a fool's game.

    With that said however, we continue to check out what the cycles suggest might happen on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. In fact, this data continues to be an important input into our daily and weekly Market Environment models.

    What Is a Cycle Composite?

    For anyone new to our monthly analysis of the cycles (the closest thing we have to a crystal ball), the cycle composite is a combination of the one-year seasonal, the four-year Presidential, and the 10-year decennial cycles - all going back to 1928.

    By combining these three cycles, a cycle composite is produced. And while expecting the market to follow the cycles exactly is just plain silly, it is surprising how often the market tends to follow the general direction of the composite - especially when viewed from a long-term perspective.

    Question #1: Is The Market In Sync With The Cycle Projections?

    The first step in the analysis of the cycles is to get a feel for whether or not the cycle projections are "on" or not at the present time.

    Cycle Composite vs. S&P 500


    Red line = S&P 500 Blue line = Cycle Projection

    Looking at the above chart, which shows the market (the red line) relative to the cycle composite's projection (the blue line) we will have to answer the question with a resounding, "Yes!" as the stock market is almost exactly where the cycle composite expected it to be through the first three months of the year.

    And from a longer-term perspective, the market (as defined by the S&P 500) continues to be largely in sync with the composite projection. For example, since 2010, the S&P is only a percent or so away from where it has been projected to be at this time.

    Sure, the ride has been bumpy and there have been times that the market has diverged - sometimes rather dramatically - from the projected path. But four years and a multitude of crises later, it is incredible that the market is still in sync with its historical cycles.

    What Does April Look Like?

    The next step is to take a look at what the cycle projections are calling for during the coming month:

    The S&P 500 Cycle Composite: The overall cycle composite suggests that April will an up and down affair. As the blue line on the chart above indicates, the projection is for an early advance followed by a sharp pullback into the traditional "Sell in May and go away" period.

    The NASDAQ's Cycle Composite: This year we're also looking at what the cycle composite has to say about the NASDAQ each month. The reason being is that the projection for the year for tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite is very clear - a serious decline lies ahead.

    Looking at April, the projection is a microcosm of the annual projection. In short, the NASDAQ is pretty much in line with the cycle composite so far and is projected to trace out a saw-tooth decline throughout the month. Perhaps this explains all the intraday selling we've seen of late.

    In Sum

    So to sum up, both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are now largely in line with the projection from the cycle composite. That's the good news. The bad news is that the cycles are calling for a late-April peak to be followed by a fairly meaningful and prolonged decline.

    The takeaway here is that "Sell in May" may indeed be the battle cry this year. As such, this may be a good time to play your cards close to the vest and to book profits whenever you have them.

    Publishing Note: I have an early meeting on Thursday and will not publish a morning report.

    Looking for a disciplined approach to managing stock market risk on a daily basis? Check Out My "Daily Decision" System. Forget the fast money and the latest, greatest option trade. What investors need is a strategy to keep them "in" the stock market during bull markets and on the sidelines (or short) during bear markets.

    Turning to This Morning...

    Continued talk of stimulus in China has buoyed markets for the most part overnight as traders await the next batch of jobs data due out over the next few days. Overnight markets were mostly higher with the exception of Italy and Spain. Futures in the U.S. are pointing to a flat-to slightly higher open at the present time.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: +1.04%
    - Hong Kong: +0.34%
    - Shanghai: +0.56%
    - London: +0.26%
    - Germany: +0.23%
    - France: +0.10%
    - Italy: -0.47%
    - Spain: -0.37%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.55 to $99.19

    Gold: +$4.10 at $1284.10

    Dollar: lower against the yen and pound, higher vs. euro

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.772%

    Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +0.18
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +9
    - NASDAQ Composite: +6.20

    Thought For The Day...

    "Don't be afraid to take a big step if one is indicated. You can't cross a chasm in two small jumps." -David Lloyd George

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    The information contained in this report is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Apr 02 7:56 AM | Link | Comment!
  • A Tale Of Two Headlines

    Daily State of the Markets
    Tuesday, April 1, 2014

    After twenty trading days, the U.S. stock market (as defined by the S&P 500) has moved a whopping point and a half. Yippee.

    During those twenty days though - a span that encompassed all but one session for the month of March - there was a great deal of fretting about Russia, the Fed, interest rates, China, and the weather. During those twenty days the high flying mo-mo stocks in areas such as Biotech, Pharmaceuticals, and Social Media took it on the chin. And during those twenty days, the bears tried to convince anyone willing to listen that a market calamity was just around the corner.

    And yet, here we are with the S&P 500 a mere 0.3 percent away from its all-time high. So what gives?

    Cutting to the chase, the recent romp back to near all-time high territory was sponsored by a couple of headlines. One suggesting that Janet Yellen is as dovish as ever. And the other contending that the situation in Russia, at least as far as the stock market is concerned, is all but over.

    But before we get to the headlines the produced Monday's triple-digit joyride to the upside, let's review how we got here.

    First There Was Cold Was 2.0

    While the month of March started off favoring the bulls, Russia's decision to first intervene on Crimea's behalf and then annex the former Soviet state (which, for the record had only been part of Ukraine for something like 24 years) put fears of another Cold War (or worse) with Russia on the table.

    Suddenly there were worries about oil supplies. And then once people figured out that an awful lot of that oil usually winds up in Europe, the global macro geniuses began to hype the idea that an interruption in the flow of oil was sure to push the fragile Eurozone economy back into the abyss.

    Then there was the "invasion" of Crimea. On the surface, this had the look and feel of Iraq's incursion into Kuwait in 1990, which, of course, brought visions of severe market declines into the heads of those seeing the geopolitical glass as at least half empty. And to hear the bears tell it, Crimea was only the beginning. Putin was on the march.

    The movement of troops into Crimea was followed by the referendum, which was touted as an election rigged by the evil Russians in order to forcefully retake the territory it once occupied. But with voter turnout that was higher than any Presidential election in U.S. history and 97 percent of voters favoring rejoining Mother Russia, it was hard to get too worked up about the idea that either WWIII or another Cold War was about to begin.

    Then There Was The New Yellen Fed

    After 18 months of Ben Bernanke's QEIII program and the resulting 50 percent gain in the stock market, one of the major worries in the market during March was that the new Fed Chair, Janet Yellen wasn't going to be as accommodative as her predecessor.

    Remember, Bernanke's bunch had targeted an Unemployment Rate of 6.5 percent as the line in the sand that, when crossed, would cause the FOMC to begin removing the various party favors it had been providing for the past 5 years. So, with the Unemployment Rate starting to get uncomfortably close to that key, publicly stated threshold, those market participants who tend to dress in fur whenever possible, felt that the Yellen Fed might be forced to make good on Bernanke's plans.

    Then there was the "dot plots" and the definitions that Ms. Yellen provided. At her first-ever press conference, the new Fed Chair pleaded with the press to ignore the plots behind the curtain and to listen to what the FOMC statement was saying. However, based on the "dot plot" that everyone was now buzzing about and the new definition of "a considerable amount of time," it sounded to some like Ms. Yellen was planning to hike rates sooner than the market had been expecting.

    So, the bears had geopolitical issues in Russia/Ukraine, the ongoing economic concerns in China, and the fear that the Fed was planning to raise rates sooner than had been anticipated. Enter the two headlines.

    Headline #1: Fed's Extraordinary Commitment to Stimulus Still Needed

    During a speech in Chicago on Monday, Janet Yellen offered a great deal of comfort to anyone worried that the Fed was going to simply pack up and go home in the near term.

    Ms. Yellen allayed fears that the Fed would continue to focus on the rapidly falling Unemployment Rate by saying, "The existence of such a large pool of 'partly unemployed' workers is a sign that labor conditions are worse than indicated by the unemployment rate."

    "While there has been steady progress, there is also no doubt that the economy and the job market are not back to normal health," Ms. Yellen added.

    An analyst from Jefferies summed it up nicely by saying, "This could be one of the most dovish speeches I have ever read from a Fed official."

    Another analyst from BNP Paribas said, "Yellen pulled out just about every dovish tool in the box as she highlighted that the economy needs extraordinary support for 'some time.'"

    Boom, stocks ramped higher as Ms. Yellen basically made it abundantly clear the Fed's ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy), which makes those fancy carry-trades oh-so easy for the big banks and hedge funds, wasn't going away any time soon.

    Headline #2: Russia Signals It Will Withdraw Troops From Ukraine Border

    According to the WSJ, a German government official said Monday that President Vladimir Putin told Chancellor Angela Merkel by phone that he had "ordered a partial withdrawal" of military forces that had been amassing along Ukraine's eastern border.

    We probably don't need to go into much detail here as this headline reassured investors that, at least for now, Russia has no plans to annex any additional Ukrainian territory.

    Sure, Russia is sneaky. Yes, this could easily be a stall tactic. But investors don't really care about Russia's long game or Ukraine to any great degree. No, the market cares only that something nasty isn't about to break out.

    So There You Have It

    So... with Yellen reaffirming her reputation as being an uber dove and Russia backing down, there was reason to cover some shorts and perhaps do a little buying on Monday.

    The question of the day, however, is if the S&P can keep the upside momentum going and break on through to the other side soon. And this time, investors will be watching closely to see if any of the other indices will be joining in on the new-high fun. Because, if not, unless some new headlines crop up, the up-one-minute and then down-the-next market could easily continue.

    Looking for a disciplined approach to managing stock market risk on a daily basis? Check Out My "Daily Decision" System. Forget the fast money and the latest, greatest option trade. What investors need is a strategy to keep them "in" the stock market during bull markets and on the sidelines (or short) during bear markets.

    Turning to This Morning...

    March PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) data from China and Europe were in focus overnight. Despite continued weakness in the Chinese data (the official PMI hovered around an 8-month low) talk of economic stimulus has traders looking to front run the People's Bank of China this morning. With the exception of Japan, all the major overnight markets are higher and U.S. futures are pointing to an uptick at the open on Wall Street.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: -0.24%
    - Hong Kong: +1.35%
    - Shanghai: +0.67%
    - London: +0.52%
    - Germany: +0.59%
    - France: +0.79%
    - Italy: +1.51%
    - Spain: +0.87%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.25 to $101.33

    Gold: +$1.20 at $1285.00

    Dollar: lower against the yen and pound, higher vs. euro

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.744%

    Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +4.51
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +43
    - NASDAQ Composite: +9.76

    Thought For The Day...

    You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today. -Abraham Lincoln

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    The information contained in this report is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Apr 01 8:04 AM | Link | Comment!
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