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David Moenning is a the Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital, which focuses on active risk management of the U.S. stock market. Dave is also the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com, which provides free and subscription-based portfolio services. Dave began his investment career in 1980... More
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  • Hopes For ECB Action Improves The Mood

    Although the troubles with Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo were in focus late last week, the concerns appear to be fading fast. This morning global markets are rallying on hopes that ECB President Draghi will announce a 700 billion euro TLTRO program when he testifies before the European parliament today. Thus, Europe's stock markets are mostly higher in the early going.

    Here at home, traders appear to be encouraged by the action in the overnight markets as well as earnings out of Citigroup (NYSE:C), which came in ahead of expectations on both the top and bottom lines.

    In economic news, it's another quiet calendar, but the data will pick up later in the week. Also note that Janet Yellen will provide her semi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill Tuesday and Wednesday.

    U.S. stock futures are up nicely in the early going and point to gain of more than 90 points for the Dow at the open.

    Current Market Outlook

    Although the headlines out of Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo may have reminded the bears of the bad old days of the European debt crisis, traders in the U.S. do not seem to be overly concerned at this stage. Exhibit A would be the action of the market on Thursday and Friday. Recall that stock market indices dove at the open on both days only to recover the vast majority of the losses by the close. And since the S&P 500 finished the week about where it was on Tuesday, we can conclude that there is no major worry about rate contagion in Europe at the present time. However, it is worth noting that our market environment model has started to sag and is currently moderately positive.

    Looking at the charts...

    The tape action of the last couple days has been a bit confusing to say the least. There have been algo-induced dives at the open as well as strong rebounds throughout the remainder of the day. The end result for the S&P and DJIA hasn't been too bad. Granted, the pre-holiday breakouts are gone. However, the short-term trend can be rated no worse than neutral for both indices. However, the smallcap and midcap indices are in clear downtrends. And finally, the chart of the NASDAQ is somewhere in between. In short, the bulls can claim possession in the broad market while the bears still control the smaller issues. Thus, it appears to be "game on" and it is likely a very good idea to watch the chart action carefully in the coming days.


    Looking For Investment Management Help?

    Check out Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager
    Or call Heritage for more information at (847) 807-3590


    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: +0.88%
    - Hong Kong: +0.49%
    - Shanghai: +0.98%
    - London: +0.66%
    - Germany: +0.82%
    - France: +0.68%
    - Italy: -0.15%
    - Spain: +0.23%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.16 to $100.67

    Gold: -$1.90 at $1337.40

    Dollar: lower against the yen and euro, higher vs. pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.524%

    Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +10.13
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +93
    - NASDAQ Composite: +18.62

    Current Market Drivers

    We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

    1. The Outlook for U.S. Economic Growth
    2. The State of Fed/ECB Policy
    3. The State of the Earnings Season
    4. The State of the Geopolitical 'Issues' in Ukraine, Iraq, and Gaza

    The State of the Trend

    We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:

    Short-Term Trend: Neutral
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)

    Intermediate-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)

    Long-Term Trend: Positive
    (Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 12 months)

    Key Technical Areas:

    Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:

    • Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 1960(ish)
    • Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 1985
    The State of the Tape

    Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...

    • Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Negative
      Signal Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.
    • Price Thrust Indicator: Neutral
      Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.
    • Volume Thrust Indicator: Negative
      Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.
    • Breadth Thrust Indicator: Neutral
      Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.
    • Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Moderately Positive
      Indicator Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.
    • Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups: Moderately Positive
      Model Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.
    The Early Warning Indicators

    Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.

    • S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Condition:
        - Short-Term: Neutral
        - Intermediate-Term: Moderately Overbought
    • Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Negative .
    The State of the Market Environment

    One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward because different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.

    Weekly State of the Market Model Reading: Moderately Positive

    Thought For The Day...

    Remember that it pays to be open minded (in more ways than one)...

    Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

    David D. Moenning
    Founder, StateoftheMarkets.com
    President, Chief Investment Officer Heritage Capital
    Check Out the NEW Website!

    Jul 14 11:52 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Has The European Debt Crisis Returned?

    Daily State of the Markets
    Friday, July 11, 2014

    Anyone coming into Thursday morning looking for a sleepy summer session was in for a rude awakening as S&P futures were down hard three hours before the opening bell. For example, as my 6 screens flickered on at 5:15 am Thursday, I began perusing my news feeds. Then I saw the futures and did a double take. Wait. -15? What?

    So much for the Wednesday rebound. So much for waving goodbye to phase II of the mo-mo meltdown. So much for the afterglow from Alcoa's earnings. So much for that better-than expected jobs report. And so much for the hoped-for rally resumption. No, it was obvious that something was up.

    Recall that this has been a market that has experienced very little volatility since mid-April. This has been a market that has defied any and all forays by the bear camp for something on the order of 85 weeks (the last time the S&P 500 traded 5% below its 52-week high). This has been a market that has acted like a one-way street which, while it's been a little bumpy in 2014, had rewarded investors.

    So why on earth would the futures be down 15, no, wait, make that 17 points? After all, a "big" pre-market move has been more like 4-5 points over the past few months.

    What Was The Problem?

    There it was. The headline in the FT: "Fears over Banco Espirito Santo trigger sell-off." It turns out that one of Portugal's biggest banks had missed an interest payment and was in trouble. Of course, with the bank's stock trading at somewhere around $0.60, one could argue that the idea of this particular stock being in trouble wasn't newsworthy.

    Why would an obviously troubled bank, whose stock hasn't traded over $3 for more than 6 years, cause European bourses to be down 1 to 3 percent and traders in the U.S. to be running for cover? Haven't we been through this plenty of times since 2010?

    Rate Contagion, Of Course

    The answer is simple. Traders have seen this movie before and forgive me for mixing metaphors, but they know how to play the game. If "rate contagion" in Europe is back on the table, then you need to move to the "risk off" position. Sell stocks. Buy U.S. Bonds, Buy Gold. Rinse and repeat.

    By now though, everybody knows that Super Mario (ECB President Mario Draghi) has a "bazooka" with which to fight the debt crisis in Europe and he has promised to use it if need be. And in short, the threat of the ECB starting to embark on an open ended QE program put an end to the European debt crisis and all the worries about rate contagion.

    But The Bazooka Could Be Part of the Problem

    However, that very same "bazooka" could be part of the problem right now. In fact, it may have actually created the problem. Assuming, of course, that there actually is a problem, which remains to be seen.

    You see, when Super Mario started talking about doing whatever it might take to defend the Euro, aggressive investors sat up and took notice. Draghi's words meant that the risk of bond default in the Eurozone had diminished. The ECB was there to backstop any problems (okay, I will admit that to be an exaggeration, but you get the idea).

    This meant that hedge fund managers specializing in troubled debt could now start buying bonds in the PIGI'S (in case you've forgotten: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) again. Don't forget, in February 2012 long-term interest rates in Greece were over 29% (29.24% to be exact). Sure, there was risk that Greece might eventually implode. But come on, at 29% the risk was worth it given that Draghi was on the case, right?

    Looking for "Love" in All the Wrong Places

    As the fear of Europe's debt crisis eased throughout 2012 and into 2013, interest rates in Europe started going down in earnest. Investors hungry for yield started dipping their toes back in the water. And before you could remember who was in charge of the EU Commission or when the next important Supreme Court decision in Germany was, money was flooding into European bonds.

    That 29% yield in Greece had turned into 6.9% as of March 31, 2014. The 6.6% yield in Spain's long-term bonds in 2012 was now 3.31%. And the 7.06% yield seen in Italy's bonds in November 2011 had fallen to 3.40%. Wow.

    To put things in perspective, two and a half years ago, the fear was that these countries were going to default on their debt and that the Eurozone was going to collapse. Now two of the PIGIS had yields near those of the United States!

    In short, money has been flooding into European bonds in search for yield. And given the relationship of the PIGI's yields to the safe havens of the world, well, one could argue that the move might have become overdone.

    What Happens If the Trade Reverses?

    Apparently, the U.S. stock market isn't too terribly worried as Thursday's early losses wound up being largely reversed by the time the closing bell rang.

    However, if you want to be worried about something, think about what would happen if some fear returned to European bonds? What if a couple more banks started going belly up in Portugal, or Spain, or Italy, or...? Don't you think that all of that fast-money might start flooding OUT of those European bonds? And then, where does it stop?

    The bottom line here is that if rates start to backup in Europe due to concerns about the banking system, the money flows and the margin calls could easily produce the type of "meaningful" decline in the stock market that so many analysts have been calling for (and calling for... and calling for).

    Granted, stocks didn't seem to care all that much on Thursday. But this is something that I for one am going to continue to keep an eye on.

    Turning to This Morning...

    Banco Espirito Santo's troubles are being viewed by the bull camp as an isolated incident this morning. Goldman Sachs may have helped ease worries about the potential for rate contagion on the continent by writing, "Notwithstanding any further bad news, we think the sovereign financial implications are rather limited." In response, European bourses have recovered a bit. Here at home, traders are waiting on earnings from Wells Fargo, which could set the tone on this summer Friday.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: -0.34%
    - Hong Kong: -0.03%
    - Shanghai: +0.42%
    - London: +0.17%
    - Germany: +0.03%
    - France: +0.39%
    - Italy: +1.11%
    - Spain: +0.92%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.43 to $102.50

    Gold: -$1.00 at $1338.20

    Dollar: lower against the yen, higher vs. euro and pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.533%

    Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +3.47
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +33
    - NASDAQ Composite: +12.71

    Thought For The Day...

    Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment. - Jim Rohn

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    The information contained in this report is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Jul 11 7:51 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Has The Momentum Meltdown Resumed?

    Daily State of the Markets
    Wednesday, July 9, 2014

    To be honest, the plan was to present an in-depth review of the outlook for inflation today. To be sure, nothing can kill a bull market faster than an uptick in inflation. And with the May data showing that there just might be some inflation percolating at the present time, it seemed a good time to broach the subject.

    However, this week's selling in the stock market, which appeared out of nowhere, has been enough to make investors sit up and take notice. So, given that there was no obvious catalyst to the pullback and that the decline has been quite spirited in some areas, the discussion on inflation will have to wait.

    Today, it is time to dig into the action in an effort to try and make some sense of the decline.

    For starters, let's agree that a pullback of 1.09 percent on the S&P 500 is nothing to get upset about. Especially when the bears have been essentially locked out of the game for the past two months. No, with stocks overbought, an extended rally, and sentiment becoming a bit giddy, a pullback was certainly to be expected at some point.

    However, some of the action has been a little out of the ordinary. But let's start with the chart of the S&P itself shown daily and see what we can see...

    S&P 500 Daily

    As one can see, the uptrend lines on the S&P remain intact. As such, those investing for the intermediate- to long-term time frame needn't be too worried.

    However, for those who see the market as vulnerable to a meaningful decline or those who trade using a shorter-term time horizon, the test of the recent breakout area is a little disconcerting.

    In short, should the S&P 500 close meaningfully below the 1960 area, it is a safe bet that the bears will likely test the 1940-45 zone. And if our furry friends can produce enough fear to break below 1920, well, things could get ugly in a hurry.

    And unfortunately, the S&P's chart is the good news as the story becomes progressively weaker as one review the rest of the other indices.

    Let's start with the venerable Dow...

    Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily

    For example, the DJIA appears to have embarked on the dreaded "breakout fakeout" as the Dow was able to stay above the magical 17,000 level for just a couple days. Thus, the next battle ground for the Dow will be the uptrend that has been intact since the beginning of February.

    So, for those keeping score at home, the key levels for the DJIA are currently 16,800 and 16,700. Respectively, these represent the uptrend line and near-term support. And if 16,700 gives way, the bears will likely be rolling.

    Next up is the NASDAQ, which up until just recently had been a laggard. But as of last Thursday, it looked like four-letter land was once again the place to be.

    NASDAQ Composite Daily

    As the chart above shows, it hasn't been a good couple of days for the NASDAQ. But then again, the tech-heavy index had popped up 10 percent since the middle of May. And since the rate of ascent was simply unsustainable (I didn't even bother drawing in a trendline) some sloppiness would be normal.

    The good news is that the NASDAQ stopped where the bulls needed it to on Tuesday - right at important support. And if the bulls can regain their mojo in the next day or so, the action of the past two days will be viewed as simply a pullback within an ongoing uptrend.

    However, if 4350 gives way it might be a different story.

    Now let's turn our attention to our old friends - the "momentum meltdown" names. AKA the Biotech, Internet, and Social Media sectors.

    SPDR Biotech ETF (NYSEARCA:XBI) Daily

    After popping nearly 30 percent from May 8th through July 3rd, again, some profit taking was to be anticipated. However, the voracity of the decline coupled with the increase in volume seen over the last couple of sessions is a little unsettling.

    Sure, this could be a case of algos-gone-wild as there has undoubtedly been a fair amount of millisecond trend-following happening this week. But at the very least, we will have to say that anyone who has enjoyed the recent bounce from the mo-mo meltdown is having their conviction on the trade tested right about now.

    Speaking of algos-gone-wild, take a peek at the internet sector...

    First Trust Internet ETF (NYSEARCA:FDN) Daily

    While Tuesday's decline in the First Trust Internet ETF was only about 3 percent, the chart is now U-G-L-Y. There is almost nothing positive to say after the quick dive. The uptrend is toast, all of our favorite moving averages have been violated, and near-term support is wanting.

    Thus, it appears that the very same traders who trashed the sector for a loss of nearly 20 percent during the momentum madness seen in March and April, are back at it again.

    And since we're on the topic of high-flying tech stocks, let's peruse one more chart... the Social Media Index.

    Global X Social Media Index ETF (NASDAQ:SOCL) Daily

    With names like Yelp (NYSE:YELP), GOGO (NASDAQ:GOGO), Pandora (NYSE:P), and LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) having been the poster children for this spring's momentum meltdown, it is little surprise that these very names are getting smoked again this week.

    And again, there is nothing positive one can say about this chart. The uptrend was scorched, the MA's all broke and the bears are "feeling it". Exhibit A here would be the volume spike on the SOCL ETF. Wow - somebody was doing some serious selling/shorting here!

    So, the bottom line appears to be that the same sellers who printed money by attacking the former mo-mo leaders are hoping that it's going to déjà vu all over again during what is supposed to be the summer doldrums on Wall Street. The question, of course, is whether or not the blue chip indices will once again be able to avoid the carnage that is taking place in the small-cap and former high flier camps.

    The answer will likely become clear as the action unfolds around the important technical levels on the S&P and DJIA. So stay tuned, this could get interesting.

    Looking For Investment Management Help?

    If you are looking for help with money management, check out Heritage Capital Management's Active Risk Manager Service - or call Heritage for more information at (630) 250-4700.

    ALL NEW: The Next Generation of the Daily Decision system is now available to clients of Heritage Capital. The upgraded system utilizes swing trading and mean reversion strategies during neutral market environments, multiple indices for long positions, incremental moves in and out of the market, multiple managers and multiple strategies - with the overall goal being reduced volatility, fewer and less impactful whipsaws, and a "smoother ride." To learn more about the "Next Generation" system, Read the Research Report

    Turning to This Morning...

    Alcoa's earnings, which were released after the bell yesterday, came in well above expectations and have lifted traders spirits here in the U.S. However, the improved mood did not spread throughout the globe as China's stock markets were down hard overnight and European bourses are mixed at the present time. Investors will also be looking hard at the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, which are scheduled to be released at 2:00 pm eastern this afternoon. There are no important economic releases scheduled for release today. Stock futures in the U.S. currently point to a green open on Wall Street.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: -0.07%
    - Hong Kong: -1.55%
    - Shanghai: -1.81%
    - London: -0.50%
    - Germany: +0.04%
    - France: -0.13%
    - Italy: +0.32%
    - Spain: +0.12%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.12 to $103.28

    Gold: +$9.90 at $1326.40

    Dollar: higher against the yen, lower vs. euro and pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.573%

    Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +5.29
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +39
    - NASDAQ Composite: +10.63

    Thought For The Day...

    Resolve never to quit, never to give up, no matter what the situation. -Jack Nicklaus

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    The information contained in this report is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Jul 09 8:06 AM | Link | Comment!
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