silberinfo: David, 2008 had a great beginning with silver over $21 but it ended poorly. From a fundamental point of view not much has changed. Why the high volatility?

Last week I updated our readers about a video shot at the Orlando Money Show. This week I have two videos where we discuss the ups and downs of the silver market and how silver differs from gold as an investment.

Gold gets most of the press and silver always seems to be in second place, and it will probably stay that way until we get to the blow-off phase of this precious metals bull market. During the panic buying phase or mania that accompany the blow-off phase, gold will be outside the price range of many people. Anyone seeking any protection from the destruction of the U.S. dollar will buy whatever they can, and that is silver.

Recently (March 7) I was interviewed on Financial Sense Online, and the discussion revolved around the Silver Exchange Traded Fund (SLV). Mr. Jim Puplava, who hosts the show, asked some piercing questions about the gold and silver ETFs.

Something Jim and I discussed was that Barclays changed the words in the original prospectus from “Silver Bullion” to just “Silver,” which, reading as a lawyer would, begs the question Why? To me it implies there might be other silver investments that count but are not necessarily bullion.

Recently (3-07-09) I was interviewed on Financial Sense Online, and the discussion revolved around the Silver ETF (SLV). Mr. Jim Puplava, who hosts the show, asked some piercing questions about the gold and silver ETFs.

Something Jim and I discussed was that Barclays changed the words in the original prospectus from “Silver Bullion” to just “Silver,” which reading as a lawyer would, begs the question Why? To me it implies there might be other silver investments that count but are not necessarily bullion.

In the February issue of The Morgan Report, we produced a feature that is of extreme significance to those of us who are serious about making money in the mining sector. We have diverged a bit from starting off the report with a quote and instead ask a very important question.

“What is an economic mining project?” A question any serious mining investor should ask!

The idea of how to define what really constitutes a good project from one that really might just be promotions by a junior mining concern led me to seek out an answer. The answer came to me through my many contacts in the industry, specifically a certain PhD geologist, who stated to me that a myth existed that “open pit” silver mines could be profitable. This gentleman pointed out the fact that although very few silver projects are profitable, many base metals operations are-- though every mining operation is grade dependent.

How does silver perform during a deflation? A question many of our readers have asked.

Today, most investors are fairly convinced that gold does well during a deflationary environment. Since gold has held better than all asset classes these past several months, many mistakenly believe that gold does best during inflations, but they are not sure about gold during deflations. The fact is, from times past, gold actually does best during deflations, rather than inflations.

I’m going to comment on Jon Nadler’s remarks in his February 9 article titled "The Silver Medalist." Jon pointed out some interesting quotes about the silver market, and some of these I have issue with and some I don’t. Mostly what he did is quote CIBC Global Markets and their assessment of the silver market. And one thing that he quotes from CIBC is that in 2008 silver had risen to about $20 an ounce and lately it’s been languishing at around the $10 level; those are facts, no dispute there. And then they ((CIBC)) go on to state at the first sign of a decline in gold that investors are likely to sell their silver holding but retain more of their gold holdings since gold has a supe­rior reputation as an insurance policy, compared to silver. I really don’t have an issue with that, yet.

This week I’m going to comment on Jon Nadler’s remarks in his February 9 article titled The Silver Medalist. Jon pointed out some interesting quotes about the silver market and some of these I have issue with and some I don’t. Mostly what he did is quote CIBC Global Markets and their assessment of the silver market. And one thing that he quotes from CIBC is that in 2008 silver had risen to about $20 an ounce and lately it’s been languishing at around the $10 level; those are facts, no dispute there. And then CIBC goes on to state that at the first sign of a decline in gold, investors are likely to sell their silver holding but retain more of their gold holdings since gold has a supe­rior reputation as an insurance policy, compared to silver. I really don’t have an issue with that, yet.

For one thing, in this part of the cycle, gold has certainly gotten most of the publicity and will continue to do so. Secondly, gold is almost mainstream and even Wall Street’s starting to talk about gold. Silver is not frequently discussed; it certainly is not thought of as a safe-haven asset by most investors in North America. However, that fails to recognize that there are 6.2 billion people on the planet and many of those will never hear of Jon Nadler or David Morgan or Ted Butler or any commen­tator for that matter, but they have eons of history where silver was a store of value. And those people, as things unwind globally, will move to the silver market, simply because gold is outside their price range.

Throughout my association in the mining industry I have heard almost every story you can imagine. For instance, there is more gold in seawater than can be measured and some company is supposed to have some super technology that can extract it profitably.

Another one that pops up is, “Our gold does not assay by normal methods but believe me we have a lot of it and our super extraction process will make us all rich.”

What most investors hear time and time again is that "timing is everything." This is an important factor for any investor and especially those who aspire to become truly financially independent. And, no one knows how to time the market like Robert Kiyosaki – author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad.

Kiyosaki knows that there is a time to sow and a time to reap. He has reaped fortunes that helped him retire at the early age of 47. And, he sowed when real estate was not the preferred investment class and he cautioned real estate investors against risky strategies such as "flipping," and relying solely on the appreciation of properties with low or no "cash flow."

Bloomberg put out some interesting news regarding the silver market, stating that refined silver output in China has peaked and it could stop growing because less will be produced as a result of halting of mine expansions, higher costs for production and lower prices received for the metal itself.

Zhou Juqiu, chairman of the gold and silver division at the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association, said that output may rise to nearly 10,000 metric tons this year from 9,092 tons in 2007. Silver prices have more than halved from an 18- year high in March after hedge funds and speculative investors sold commodities to raise cash, while recession fears reduced demand for industrial use of the precious metal.

Many who write about the precious metals field have put out their 2009 forecasts and predictions for the New Year. This writer is no exception, but it seemed to me that it might be nice to look at my mission statement and determine if I could compose a simple story that might engage the reader to think about the current dire state of affairs in the economy and how an honest “money” system might help on an individual basis.

My mission statement is, “To teach and empower people to understand the benefits of an Honest Monetary System.” Although the words gold and/or silver are not even mentioned in my mission statement, they are both very important components in an honest money system—they instill trust. And the lack of trust is the core issue of today’s economic problems. Our banking institutions and well established investment firms do not trust each other, and the system is grinding down. This has even affected the “Big Three” automakers, who are experiencing problems in this economy... but it wasn’t always that way.

Typical pre-teen boys may be as committed to collecting coins as they are baseball cards, but to find 11-year-olds intrigued by the M1 money supply, fiat currency and the silver standard would be a rarity by anyone’s standards. David Morgan, whose interest in silver dates to that tender age, was one of the rare ones—and still is. Although his horizon has expanded considerably since those days, he now stands out among the world’s preeminent silver authorities, investment experts and worldview economists.

All’s been decidedly unquiet on the precious metals front since David’s last exclusive interview with The Gold Report this past April. Back then, U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson had used the term “financial crisis" more than five times in a recent speech, circumstances in which, as David put it, “the attraction to precious metals becomes more urgent.” At that time, he also speculated on whether there is enough silver above the ground if just 10% of the baby boomer population were to put 5% of their net worth into silver. According to David, the answer is a resounding “no.” David sees some silver lining the recessionary thunderheads, and a spring that may bring see an “Obama Rally” burst forth.

I received a phone call from Tarek Saab, a former finalist on Donald Trump’s television show, The Apprentice. At first I was a bit suspicious because, believe it or not, there are a few flakes floating around the gold and silver arena, and having someone claim to be associated with The Donald did send up warning flags. I must state, however, that perhaps to an outsider, all gold and silver bugs probably seem nuts!

Tarek’s call was followed by an e-mail and this gentleman sounded as bullish on the precious metals as anyone I have met. In fact he began something that many of my friends and associates have talked about for years. He began a peer-to-peer network where buyers and sellers can find true price discovery and deal in physical silver and gold.

“Junk silver” and “junk bags” are terms that refer to $1000 in U.S. coinage—dimes, quarters, or half dollars minted 1964 or earlier; commonly known junk bags consist of 90% silver. Junk bags of silver dollars are sold separately and have always held a higher premium.

We are talking about coins that are only in fair condition and have no collectible value above the bullion value or the “melt value.” The word “junk” refers only to the value of the coins as bullion, and “junk” is not scrap silver.

During my recent trip to Europe, there were many interesting meetings and conversations. One of the most meaningful was with a good friend and colleague Mr. Eric Lemaire.

Eric is a true free-market thinker and has worked at producing true price discovery in the gold and silver markets. Eric suggested that, because eBay (EBAY) was already in existence and is a worldwide system, real price discovery could be obtained.

This headline should grab anyone’s attention, especially those interested in the silver market. Before going forward, let me explain that fully 70% of silver is produced as a result of mining other metals, mostly base metals. Copper mining, for example, is responsible for 28% of the silver mined in 2007. Lead/Zinc mining yielded 32% of the silver mined in 2007. Finally, gold mining brought about 10% of the silver mined, again in 2007. All data is from GFMS World Silver Survey 2008, page 31.

The point is, with the current low prices for all of the base metals, many companies that produce them are slowing, closing, or stopping projects. The result is obvious: the overall production of silver from base metal and even gold mining is going to be reduced because of current economic conditions. Will this bring down silver production by the 70% mentioned in my “yellow journalism” headline? Of course not, but my headline builds awareness that a slowdown in global mining activity is not necessarily going to flood the market with silver; quite the contrary, slowing mining activity slows the amount of silver produced.

The question has been pouring in: “What happens to gold during a deflation? Of course, many of my readers are equally if not more interested in what happens to silver in a deflation as well.

The views on this topic vary. Some insist that both metals will do well under almost any economic conditions; some, like Bob Prechter, think neither gold nor silver will do well; and others, like Jim Sinclair and Bob Hoye, believe gold and gold alone will be the only thing left standing.

In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price differential between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, a risk-free profit. An entity such as a bank or brokerage firm that engages in arbitrage is called an arbitrageur. The term is mainly applied to trading in financial instruments, such as bonds, stocks, derivatives, commodities, and currencies. (Source Wikipedia.)

There is without a doubt a price differential between retail silver product such as 100-troy-ounce silver bars and the spot price for silver on the Futures Exchange. In fact, this presents a very good arbitrage opportunity for those willing to take the risk. This is accomplished by selling lots of 1000 troy ounces in 100-ounce bar increments and locking in the 1000-oz. Comex bars for delivery. This process is achievable and like all arbitrage situations will find some market participants willing to take advantage of this opportunity.