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David Nelson, CFA

 
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  • Emerging Market Investors Need To Go Active [View article]
    From a valuation perspective you bring up a very important point on the SPX. I think with current yield close to a 10 year treasury I'll take it over bonds. I came into the year thinking the 10 year yield would end the year at 4%. I now believe 3% is the ceiling as long as the Fed Funds rate stays close to 0. The spread is about as wide as it gets over the last 50 years.

    I don't see inflation for now. My last reason for being long and having a 1970 target for the SPX is the US is well on its way to energy independence by the end of the decade. That has enormous implications for the economy and the multiples investors will pay for risk assets. Thanks again for taking the time.

    Best
    David
    Feb 8 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 - Why The Ride Isn't Over [View article]
    I respectfully suggest that waiting for the market to crash has been pretty costly for investors. I had similar comments when I wrote S&P 500 "The Road to 1500" back in January 2012.

    I don't believe Fed intervention is the only dynamic here.
    Jan 6 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    I would bet they have several types of plans including deferred compensation. Stock option grants are the big game for management at any public company. It's all done in the name of being on the same side as the share holder.

    It's total BS and forces management to buy shares back to offset dilution. Particularly nasty at tech firms like CSCO where they have been buying back stock for decades to offset what they are handing managment.

    This isn't a BA issue it is a corporate governance issue that effects all shareholders.

    I've written on this several times in the last few years and nothing has changed. Those who write the laws often end up on corporate boards once they leave politics.

    In my opinion stock options are the dirty little secret that no one wants to talk about.
    Nov 18 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    There is still a lot of time left. I think the jobs will stay here but will likely move to a Right to Work State.
    Nov 18 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    Big news out of Dubai over the weekend. Very large orders for BA aircraft out of the Dubai Airshow.
    Nov 18 07:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    Jim,

    I think the company would go along with that in a heart beat. The biggest issue for most companies and even municipal governments is there is no way to know the end costs of a defined benefit plan.

    I'm sure when GM and AMR signed past contracts they thought they would work.
    Nov 16 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    No, That was a surprise to me. Was trading down pre-market but that didn't last long.

    I guess everbody gets it. I expected to do a spot on Fox or Bloomberg today off the article. I guess the producers didn't feel it was that big a deal.

    I hope the unions and management can come to some kind of agreement. There is a lot of history there.
    Nov 14 03:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    Here is just a few where the Pension Plans played a role in the bankruptcy. GM, Chrysler, UAL, Delta, American Airlines, Lyondel not to mention the City of Detroit.
    Nov 14 01:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    Well said. It will probably be some sort of combination that makes the most sense. Threre's still a lot of time
    Nov 14 12:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    I don't think this is a stumble at all. They can't capitulate on Defined Benefit. They don't work anymore.

    Stock reaction says a lot.
    Nov 14 10:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    I don't dispute that there are issues and I think there are many areas where Boeing can give back to the unions. But the Defined Benefit Plan isn't one of them. That is a big deal. I can't count the number of fortune 500 companies that have gone bankrupt because of these plans.

    Detroit is a shell of its former self partly because of these plans. If the Unions think Boeing will give in on this they are mistaken.
    Nov 14 09:39 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Bull Market Feels Like A Bubble [View article]
    Well said.
    Nov 6 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Bull Market Feels Like A Bubble [View article]
    Thanks for responding. The Chinese and Airbus are about a decade behind Boeing currently. I'm a commercial Pilot so I talk to and fly with airline captains often. They love Boeing planes and hate Airbus.

    I think a decade is a pretty good buffer.

    I'm long reluctantly FCX. I think management actions over the last year or so border on the criminal but I'm not the judge and jury.

    CAT is interesting. They are paying for a poorly timed purchase.

    Thanks again
    Nov 6 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Bull Market Feels Like A Bubble [View article]
    You bring up valid points but the main thesis of the article is that we spend far too much time focused on the market and outside factors and not enough time on individual stocks.

    If the Fed's money was truly causing a bubble market valuations would be significantly higher than they are now. When they start to taper and interest rates normalize I still think Boeing will still be able to sell a lot of aircraft over the next 10 years.

    I think the very fact that the media is so obsessed with calling the top and calling it a bubble gives this market some breathing room.

    Best
    David
    Nov 5 03:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Bull Market Feels Like A Bubble [View article]
    These stocks are at 52 week highs for a reason. They have a strong secular tailwind. Yes it's true that if we suddenly enter a Bull Market these will fall harder.

    Best quote I've heard today on Bubbles:

    A Bubble is a Bull Market I'm not in.
    Nov 5 01:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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99 Comments
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