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David Nelson, CFA

 
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  • Every Bull Market Feels Like A Bubble [View article]
    I'm not making a judgement call on the Fed. I'm just reading the tea leaves and this is what I see.
    Nov 5 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perfect Storm - Cable Companies Sail Into The Vortex [View article]
    CEO of Cablevision gets it. He Predicts the End of Cable TV.
    The current cable model is unsustainable. Timing on secular shifts like this are difficult to predict but we are probably at the inflection point right now. DTV earnings have nothing to do with my argument.

    http://on.wsj.com/18Zx0MF
    Aug 5 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perfect Storm - Cable Companies Sail Into The Vortex [View article]
    Agree, you can't live without the the pipe. I gues that will be the key question for cable. Can they raise prices continually raise prices on the pipe. The laws that surround cable and telco regulation are complex. I wonder how far they can go with their pricing on what some are starting to consider a necessity like electricity. I think potentially it will be regulated in much the same way.

    I own DIS as well but have taken some off the table. They lowered guidance recently. Doesn't affect this qtr but the Lone Ranger was a dud. Thanks for the feedback. Well put.
    Jul 25 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perfect Storm - Cable Companies Sail Into The Vortex [View article]
    CMCSA is the name that understands the importance of content. Roberts has been trying to boost it ever since he attempted to take out DIS. However, with all the content they own or potentially will buy, it will not replace what is lost in premium subs over time. More and more will choose to get the service that gives them access to the pipe. In addition they will have to pay more for what they don't own.

    GOOG announcement today is just the tip of the iceberg of what's coming. Growth will slow in these names and over time will achieve growth rates similar to utilities unless they make drastic changes to their business model. If I had gun to my head CMCSA would be the one I would own. You'll notice in my disclosure it was recently sold after a long ride. I'll take the content providers over cable.
    Jul 25 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perfect Storm - Cable Companies Sail Into The Vortex [View article]
    CMCSA is the name that understands the importance of content. Roberts has been trying to boost it ever since he attempted to take out DIS. However, with all the content they own or potentially will buy, it will not replace what is lost in premium subs over time. More and more will choose to get the service that gives them access to the pipe. In addition they will have to pay more for what they don't own.

    GOOG announcement today is just the tip of the iceberg of what's coming. Growth will slow in these names and over time will achieve growth rates similar to utilities unless they make drastic changes to their business model. If I had gun to my head CMCSA would be the one I would own. You'll notice in my disclosure it was recently sold after a long ride. I'll take the content providers over cable.
    Jul 25 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perfect Storm - Cable Companies Sail Into The Vortex [View article]
    All of these companies will use the cable pipe to deliver their own content. Cable may be able to force you to take basic channels to get their internet access. However, they won't be able to force you to buy premium content, and that is where the money is. Admittedly this may take some time to play out but we are past the inflection point.
    Jul 23 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan: Let The Shareholders Vote [View article]
    The culture inside the board at many companies needs to change. They often forget who they represent and it is very difficult for activist shareholders to make their voice heard.
    Dec 11 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Congrats on being right. We long ago made our mea culpa and went back to a full position the day they reported.

    Even if it turns out we were early on our call it is still wrong. We've moved on.
    Feb 29 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Taking the heat on my Wrong call on AAPL last november. Obviously it was a superb quarter.

    For those of you mounting your attacks congrats on your insight. We are beefing up security here in Greenwich.

    I AM ARMED AND DANGEROUS
    Jan 25 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: The Road To 1500 [View article]
    I understand that you feel my target is unrealistic but I think 15 is quite reasonable given the points I've made. I've seen 40 in my career and don't think I will see that again anytime soon.
    Jan 24 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: The Road To 1500 [View article]
    Thanks, Sounds like we are on the same page
    Jan 24 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook 2012: Seeking The Holy Grail [View article]
    The importance of Jobless Claims can be seen again today as futures move higher this morning off the Jobless Claims positive surprise.

    Europe is the biggest risk we face.
    Dec 15 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook 2012: Seeking The Holy Grail [View article]
    A lot of what you say is true and I mention it in the article. The reliable number from my perspective is the Jobless claims not the rate of unemployment. I agree that many of the unemployed have dropped off the rolls. Much of our unemployment is structural.

    The jobless claims are pretty current. People generally file for unemployment insurance right away. That trend is down.

    Let's hope 2012 is a better year especially for the unemployed.

    Thanks for your comment.

    Best
    David
    Dec 13 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Optimism Invasion And Your Portfolio [View article]
    Jason,

    The Fed's actions are a form of QE 3. Some would even say it is the beginning of a series of coordinated moves. We have organic growth here just isn't robust.

    Best
    David
    Dec 2 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    relayer75,

    I don't mind the use of caps but your point is well taken. It was meant for emphasis only. Not to be rude.

    We can only talk about the past as fact. Whenever I am speaking about the future it is of course an opinion. I believe that is understood.

    Best
    David
    Nov 29 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
99 Comments
72 Likes