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David Nelson, CFA  

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  • ETF To Avoid: Tuttle Tactical Management U.S. Core ETF [View article]
    I would echo Matt's comments as well. Modern Portfolio Theory works right up until the it doesn't. Every diversified portfolio I come across has an asset allocation in commodities which have been a drag on performance for a couple of years. Tactical programs are designed to not ride an investment into the toilet. Currently a diversified portfolio has a few negatively correlated asset classes.

    During the financial crisis those correlations rose. In other words when it hits the fan everything goes down. If you want to stay in every asset class and feel that it brings you comfort there are funds that do that.
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cost Evolution Of Legacy Offshore Drillers [View article]
    Well Done. Excellent article.
    Feb 24, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Now Is The Time To Sell RF Micro Devices [View article]
    Respectfully I don't think the high trailing PE is all that relevant in front of a merger that will dramatically increase their market cap and their leverage within the RF community. Earnings will jump almost 270% year over year when the deal closes on Dec 31st. RFMD is on a March Fiscal so just looking 4 months out with a consensus estimate of 1.13 it trades at less than 13x.

    Doesn't seem that expensive. The other risks you mention are risks every company in the industry has. There is no way to be in the communications space and not be exposed to AAPL.
    Nov 26, 2014. 09:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Down Vs. Bottom Up - Which Investor Has The Edge? [View article]
    Thanks very much Bill. Appreciate it.
    Jul 15, 2014. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Down Vs. Bottom Up - Which Investor Has The Edge? [View article]
    Maybe yours but not mine :)
    Jul 14, 2014. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Down Vs. Bottom Up - Which Investor Has The Edge? [View article]
    Ron, You are very kind. The My Gut statement wasn't a typo. There have been plenty of moments in my career when my gut emotions were telling me the market or economy was heading into the tank.

    That's why I stick to quant work. No emotion.
    Jul 14, 2014. 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Down Vs. Bottom Up - Which Investor Has The Edge? [View article]
    Well said. I obviously come down on the side that I can more easily identify the health of individual companies than broad economies.
    Jul 14, 2014. 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Are Searching For I-95 North [View article]
    I don't find the Vix useful anymore as an indicator. Professional investors have significantly more ways to hedge today than they did decades ago. ETF's Short ETF's swaps and other derivatives are available with tighter spreads and more liquidity.

    I think hedge funds are more hedge than most people think. Part of the reason for such poor returns in the last two years.
    May 23, 2014. 03:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Are Searching For I-95 North [View article]
    Well said. A lot of wisdom in that statement.
    May 23, 2014. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Buys Direct TV - Buyer Beware [View article]
    I'm sure they have a great picture but the future of TV is not traditional broadcast. While current video may be ok they won't be able to compete on future services. I've tested their internet offering several times. Hardly competitive and certainly unsuitable for most businesses.

    It's fine for what it does but this deal takes T in the wrong direction. They are spending a lot of capital to capture current growth while ignoring future. VZ made the right choice decades ago when they started laying fiber to the home. T took the cheap way out and sacrificed their future. BTW congrats if you are a DTV shareholder. Great trades.
    May 20, 2014. 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Buys Direct TV - Buyer Beware [View article]
    You are right that bandwidth is crucial. However the future of internet access rests with fiber to the home. I have Verizon Fios and don't have any of the issues you describe.

    The demand for bandwidth is going higher not lower. There is no way for DTV to get around the laws of physics. Their networks will always have latency issues.

    This is a deal that solves some cash flow issues over the next 5 years. Long term it does little.
    May 19, 2014. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Clouds Over Omaha - Time To Sell Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    What they agree on is Warren's hypocrisy when it comes to corporate governance. His actions in the coke pay dispute are in opposition to what he has said in the past.

    His son is on the board and a corporate insider. He didn't want to embarrass him with a no vote.

    He's had an awesome career, no question. This isn't one of his shining moments.
    May 14, 2014. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clouds Over Omaha - Time To Sell Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Thanks so much for the kind words. I don't think I'm going to be invited to Omaha anytime soon.

    Best
    David
    May 6, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clouds Over Omaha - Time To Sell Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    We'll of course never know but without the public outrage and the disapproval of some of his peers I'm not sure how far he would have gone. Votes cast would have also sent a strong message to corporate boards everywhere to get their acts together.

    I'm only guessing but I believe that if he had known in advance the negative reaction, he would have chosen a different path.

    On performance we're not talking about just a year. In the last 10 years we've been through at least 3 market cycles and it's a market performer.

    The final point not even mentioned in my article is his age and health. When he and Charlie are gone, past performance means almost nothing.

    David
    May 6, 2014. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clouds Over Omaha - Time To Sell Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    That's what makes a market. :)
    May 6, 2014. 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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102 Comments
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