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David Nelson, CFA

 
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  • Clouds Over Omaha - Time To Sell Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    You make good points Doc but consider the following. The out-performance was largely made in another era. It's not just the last 5 years I'm talking about. It's been a market performer for the last decade.

    I'm certain his son isn't the only reason he made this decision but regardless the decision was a poor one. What's taking place inside far to many boardrooms is nothing less than the Rape of the American Shareholder.

    Mr. Buffett, given his status as one of the great investors of our time, had an opportunity to make a statement but chose to let the directors and management he says he loves so dearly off the hook.

    David Nelson
    May 5, 2014. 08:21 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    I don't dispute that there are issues and I think there are many areas where Boeing can give back to the unions. But the Defined Benefit Plan isn't one of them. That is a big deal. I can't count the number of fortune 500 companies that have gone bankrupt because of these plans.

    Detroit is a shell of its former self partly because of these plans. If the Unions think Boeing will give in on this they are mistaken.
    Nov 14, 2013. 09:39 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ready For A Rebound? Gilead's $1000 Pill [View article]
    The total cost is $84,000 and its over. It is a cure with a high efficacy rate. However, your point is well taken. I'm assuming the cost will come down in the analysis. For the insurance companies the cost not to treat is many times higher than the cost of the drug.
    Apr 17, 2014. 09:57 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook - The Greater Fool? [View article]
    It was tongue in cheek. It's 2 1/2 times sales if they sign up every man woman and child on the planet. 7 Billion people. 19 divided by 7. Just rounding.

    I was never much of a stand up comic.
    Feb 20, 2014. 11:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    I don't think this is a stumble at all. They can't capitulate on Defined Benefit. They don't work anymore.

    Stock reaction says a lot.
    Nov 14, 2013. 10:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Now Is The Time To Sell RF Micro Devices [View article]
    Respectfully I don't think the high trailing PE is all that relevant in front of a merger that will dramatically increase their market cap and their leverage within the RF community. Earnings will jump almost 270% year over year when the deal closes on Dec 31st. RFMD is on a March Fiscal so just looking 4 months out with a consensus estimate of 1.13 it trades at less than 13x.

    Doesn't seem that expensive. The other risks you mention are risks every company in the industry has. There is no way to be in the communications space and not be exposed to AAPL.
    Nov 26, 2014. 09:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    Here is just a few where the Pension Plans played a role in the bankruptcy. GM, Chrysler, UAL, Delta, American Airlines, Lyondel not to mention the City of Detroit.
    Nov 14, 2013. 01:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    Well said. It will probably be some sort of combination that makes the most sense. Threre's still a lot of time
    Nov 14, 2013. 12:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Battles Union Over 777X - Who's Bluffing? [View article]
    No, That was a surprise to me. Was trading down pre-market but that didn't last long.

    I guess everbody gets it. I expected to do a spot on Fox or Bloomberg today off the article. I guess the producers didn't feel it was that big a deal.

    I hope the unions and management can come to some kind of agreement. There is a lot of history there.
    Nov 14, 2013. 03:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Are Searching For I-95 North [View article]
    I don't find the Vix useful anymore as an indicator. Professional investors have significantly more ways to hedge today than they did decades ago. ETF's Short ETF's swaps and other derivatives are available with tighter spreads and more liquidity.

    I think hedge funds are more hedge than most people think. Part of the reason for such poor returns in the last two years.
    May 23, 2014. 03:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clouds Over Omaha - Time To Sell Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Excuse me sir.

    My last sell recommendation was Athena (ATHN) on the Yahoo's Daily ticker April 2nd. http://yhoo.it/1j7T92f

    My last buy recommendation was Gilead (GILD) on this site two days before they reported blockbuster earnings. http://seekingalpha.co...

    Your comment is out of line. I stand on my record.

    I try to show everyone respect when I comment. Could I be wrong. Of course I could. I wasn't paid for this article buy wanted to share my thinking. And yes I am the Chief Strategist of the firm and a decision maker. We're doing just fine.
    May 6, 2014. 09:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay Shareholders - Stand Up And Be Counted [View article]
    Great comments everyone. I wish that eBay was the only example of this type of behavior but I think we know that isn't the case.
    Feb 26, 2014. 02:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook - The Greater Fool? [View article]
    Thank you everyone for reading the article. Obviously there is a dialog going on with respect to the deal. I will be discussing my viewpoint on CNBC later today on Closing Bell. Hit time is about 3:20 PM EST.

    I'll leave you with one last thought. Throughout history there have been visionary leaders who started a company with a product or service that becomes wildly popular. We assume sometimes correctly that these people will always make the right decision and can do no wrong.

    However in the real world even leaders make mistakes. I make them all the time. I run institutional money professionally and have been doing so for a pretty long time. Contrary to some of the comments I am not working from my bedroom trading 100 shares. You can contact me at davidnelsoncfa.com if you would like access to every closed transaction including profit and loss.

    Sometimes management reaches too far to maintain their popularity and relevance in the future. Like Fonzie trying to hold up Happy Days Mark has jumped the shark.

    We shall see.
    Feb 21, 2014. 11:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook - The Greater Fool? [View article]
    We all understand why Mr. Zuckerberg is doing this. The point of the article is that Price Matters.

    What's more frightening is the analogies you are using remind me of the rationale used when Time Warner took out AOL.

    I fully understand the incentive to scale and grab new users but as some of the other readers have posted the emerging markets where they are dominant don't like to pay anything. Let's see what the turn over is in a few years.

    On the call management said they are not focused on monetizing the product and they are looking longterm 10-15 years. I respectfully submit that $19 Billion is too high a price especially considering there were no other bidders.
    Feb 20, 2014. 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Bull Market Feels Like A Bubble [View article]
    You bring up valid points but the main thesis of the article is that we spend far too much time focused on the market and outside factors and not enough time on individual stocks.

    If the Fed's money was truly causing a bubble market valuations would be significantly higher than they are now. When they start to taper and interest rates normalize I still think Boeing will still be able to sell a lot of aircraft over the next 10 years.

    I think the very fact that the media is so obsessed with calling the top and calling it a bubble gives this market some breathing room.

    Best
    David
    Nov 5, 2013. 03:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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