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David Nelson, CFA

 
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  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Congrats on being right. We long ago made our mea culpa and went back to a full position the day they reported.

    Even if it turns out we were early on our call it is still wrong. We've moved on.
    Feb 29 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Taking the heat on my Wrong call on AAPL last november. Obviously it was a superb quarter.

    For those of you mounting your attacks congrats on your insight. We are beefing up security here in Greenwich.

    I AM ARMED AND DANGEROUS
    Jan 25 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    relayer75,

    I don't mind the use of caps but your point is well taken. It was meant for emphasis only. Not to be rude.

    We can only talk about the past as fact. Whenever I am speaking about the future it is of course an opinion. I believe that is understood.

    Best
    David
    Nov 29 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Dialectical Materialist,

    "This is still a great company and should continue to innovate for years, but it is NOT and WILL NOT be the hyper growth company of years gone by"

    The above is the last line of my article. Nothing I have said implies that I think Apple is about to collapse. If that were true I would sell my remaining position and get short. Many analysts and for that matter some in the room seem to agree that Apple's growth rate will slow.

    The real disagreement is: "What does this mean for the Stock Price?" Most here and most on the street believe that the price momentum will continue as before. I obviously have taken a different point of view.
    Nov 28 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Ken,

    I haven't disparaged any of them. They think the stock will be between 500 and 700 in the next 12 months and I disagree. As always time will tell.

    Best
    David
    Nov 28 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Daugherty,
    We don’t seem to know who you are. You have chosen to lurk in the shadows. You have no Bio. No followers and it doesn’t appear that you have ever written anything. You claim to be some self proclaimed expert on Apple capable of judging the work of others when you haven’t produced anything on your own.

    Most everything I do comes under public scrutiny. I publish several times a week on the Belpointe Website. I only occasionally share the work here on Seeking Alpha. When I make a recommendation on TV or the Press millions get to view my successes and failures. I am a professional money manager who puts real money behind what I say and do.

    You want to criticize my work and my investment ideas fine. If you are going to call me DISHONEST then have the decency to come out of your cave and let us see who the accuser is. My name is David Nelson and I am the Chief Strategist of Belpointe Asset Management in Greenwich CT. I am in the phone book. You of course are not.
    Nov 28 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    That's funny. I usually get confused with Dave Nelson from the New Riders. Talked to some of my old bandmates from David Johansen and Nektar yesterday. Most are still making albums or out on tour.
    Nov 25 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    :) Thanks for that. Not many smiles this week in a pretty miserable tape. Have a great weekend.
    Nov 25 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Daugherty,

    Many of the top money managers in the world are anlaysts or were at one time. In addition many like myself are also Chartered Financial Analysts. To disparage an entire industry of hard working educated professionals seems foolish at best.
    Nov 25 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Dialectical Materialist,

    Thanks very much for the well thought out reply. Some in this forum can't seem to tolerate analysts or anyone for that matter who don't share their point of view. Yes on AMZN. You say it very well. The payback always seems a few quarters away. Thanks again.

    David
    Nov 24 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    This is to the group at large. There is obviously a lot of disagreement here about the future of AAPL stock. In response to some of the posts that pointed out in the past analysts have underestimated growth at AAPL and that their work should be considered suspect.

    Currently on First Call I count 48 Buy, 2 Hold and 2 sell opinions among Wall Street Analysts with one year targets as high as 700 and the mean around 500. These so called suspect analysts seem to agree with most of you here in the forum.

    Many of you argue that AAPL will grow as it has in the past with emerging markets and the changing demographics for the company.

    I respectfully submit that the multiple is compressing because the growth as a percentage is slowing and the stock is undergoing an ownership change. The new phrase that seemed to be coined on my recent appearance on Bloomberg TV "The Grandma Effect" is very real.

    AAPL is a wonderful company that has enrichened our lives and will do so for some time. My firm here in Greenwich is an exclusive user of Apple products and computers which is saying something for a financial services firm. Nevertheless I believe the delta of Apple's growth is changing and hence the appreciation rate of its stock will slow in years to come.

    Thank you all for the many comments as this has proved to be a very stimulating forum for ideas.
    Nov 23 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    There seems to be a number of new posts here which looks like it is becoming something of an AAPL forum with SA readers commenting to each other.

    Lots of views from both sides of the tracks obviously skewed to the bull side given the number of positive AAPL comments. A lot to do this morning. Will try to get back and respond later.
    Nov 23 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    I am sure very few of you will care to watch, but I will be discussing my AAPL view point with Jon Ehrlichman on Bloomberg TV 6 PM EST.

    PS I do not know Mr. Blodget.
    Nov 18 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Daugherty,

    Of course they missed investor expectations. They saw the numbers and they sold the stock. Nobody held a gun to their head. Whether they were misled by analysts or their own work was flawed is beside the point. The bottom line is they sold because they were disappointed.

    Nothing I have said implies that Apple is a flawed company. All large companies have to deal with slowing growth. It is the price of suceess. As a result Price Momentum for the stock will slow as well.

    If my style or rhetoric has offended anyone, my apologies. Perhaps I am talking to those of you who refer to me as Blogger Boy. :)

    In any event the article and my conclusions stand.
    Nov 17 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Jon,

    Come on. The reason AAPL underperformed since the last earnings report by 1000 basis points was because they missed investor expectations. Admittedly the bar was set high but a miss nevertheless.

    Mr. Jobs died October 4th or 5th and the stock was trading higher by the time they reported on the 18th as the overhang was lifted.

    I don't mind Apple fans beating me up for my opinions but lets get the facts straight.
    Nov 17 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by David Nelson, CFA
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