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David Nelson

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  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Ken,

    I haven't disparaged any of them. They think the stock will be between 500 and 700 in the next 12 months and I disagree. As always time will tell.

    Best
    David
    Nov 28 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Daugherty,
    We don’t seem to know who you are. You have chosen to lurk in the shadows. You have no Bio. No followers and it doesn’t appear that you have ever written anything. You claim to be some self proclaimed expert on Apple capable of judging the work of others when you haven’t produced anything on your own.

    Most everything I do comes under public scrutiny. I publish several times a week on the Belpointe Website. I only occasionally share the work here on Seeking Alpha. When I make a recommendation on TV or the Press millions get to view my successes and failures. I am a professional money manager who puts real money behind what I say and do.

    You want to criticize my work and my investment ideas fine. If you are going to call me DISHONEST then have the decency to come out of your cave and let us see who the accuser is. My name is David Nelson and I am the Chief Strategist of Belpointe Asset Management in Greenwich CT. I am in the phone book. You of course are not.
    Nov 28 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    That's funny. I usually get confused with Dave Nelson from the New Riders. Talked to some of my old bandmates from David Johansen and Nektar yesterday. Most are still making albums or out on tour.
    Nov 25 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    :) Thanks for that. Not many smiles this week in a pretty miserable tape. Have a great weekend.
    Nov 25 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Daugherty,

    Many of the top money managers in the world are anlaysts or were at one time. In addition many like myself are also Chartered Financial Analysts. To disparage an entire industry of hard working educated professionals seems foolish at best.
    Nov 25 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Dialectical Materialist,

    Thanks very much for the well thought out reply. Some in this forum can't seem to tolerate analysts or anyone for that matter who don't share their point of view. Yes on AMZN. You say it very well. The payback always seems a few quarters away. Thanks again.

    David
    Nov 24 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    This is to the group at large. There is obviously a lot of disagreement here about the future of AAPL stock. In response to some of the posts that pointed out in the past analysts have underestimated growth at AAPL and that their work should be considered suspect.

    Currently on First Call I count 48 Buy, 2 Hold and 2 sell opinions among Wall Street Analysts with one year targets as high as 700 and the mean around 500. These so called suspect analysts seem to agree with most of you here in the forum.

    Many of you argue that AAPL will grow as it has in the past with emerging markets and the changing demographics for the company.

    I respectfully submit that the multiple is compressing because the growth as a percentage is slowing and the stock is undergoing an ownership change. The new phrase that seemed to be coined on my recent appearance on Bloomberg TV "The Grandma Effect" is very real.

    AAPL is a wonderful company that has enrichened our lives and will do so for some time. My firm here in Greenwich is an exclusive user of Apple products and computers which is saying something for a financial services firm. Nevertheless I believe the delta of Apple's growth is changing and hence the appreciation rate of its stock will slow in years to come.

    Thank you all for the many comments as this has proved to be a very stimulating forum for ideas.
    Nov 23 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    There seems to be a number of new posts here which looks like it is becoming something of an AAPL forum with SA readers commenting to each other.

    Lots of views from both sides of the tracks obviously skewed to the bull side given the number of positive AAPL comments. A lot to do this morning. Will try to get back and respond later.
    Nov 23 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    I am sure very few of you will care to watch, but I will be discussing my AAPL view point with Jon Ehrlichman on Bloomberg TV 6 PM EST.

    PS I do not know Mr. Blodget.
    Nov 18 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Daugherty,

    Of course they missed investor expectations. They saw the numbers and they sold the stock. Nobody held a gun to their head. Whether they were misled by analysts or their own work was flawed is beside the point. The bottom line is they sold because they were disappointed.

    Nothing I have said implies that Apple is a flawed company. All large companies have to deal with slowing growth. It is the price of suceess. As a result Price Momentum for the stock will slow as well.

    If my style or rhetoric has offended anyone, my apologies. Perhaps I am talking to those of you who refer to me as Blogger Boy. :)

    In any event the article and my conclusions stand.
    Nov 17 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Jon,

    Come on. The reason AAPL underperformed since the last earnings report by 1000 basis points was because they missed investor expectations. Admittedly the bar was set high but a miss nevertheless.

    Mr. Jobs died October 4th or 5th and the stock was trading higher by the time they reported on the 18th as the overhang was lifted.

    I don't mind Apple fans beating me up for my opinions but lets get the facts straight.
    Nov 17 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Agreed the Clown comment was over the top but I stand by Appleloonians.

    To be accurate you are saying that AAPL will be a $500 Billion company shortly after the next earnings report. Therefore AAPL is about make a 42% move shortly after January 18th.

    Thats what makes a horse race. Good Luck.
    Nov 16 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    The numbers don't agree with you. Over the last 3 months AAPL has slightly underperformed the S&P. A little over 200 basis points and since its last report it has underperformed by 1000 basis points. (10%)
    Nov 16 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    Henry the statement isn't spin at all. Over the last 3 months AAPL has underperformed modestly. A little more than 200 basis points. Since their last earnings report they have undeperformed by about 1000 basis points vs the S&P.

    In any event it isn't the main thesis of my argument.
    Nov 16 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still Long, But Investors Must Admit Growth Is Slowing [View article]
    I would agree on all of your comments except one. The average retail investor believes that Apple will continue to grow at the same pace regardless of its size. On a dollar basis obviously the growth will be in the Billions but viewed as a percentage the growth will slow. That is the thesis of the article.

    The word clown is regrettable but I refer to the herd as Appleloonians because they are convinced the stock will double every 18 months.

    The article merely points out that previous growth rate is unsustainable and that the delta is changing. This has negative implications for the stock's performance.

    If offended by my rhetoric my apologies. I stand by the analysis. At its previous rate of growth Apple will be selling $1 Trillion worth of product in about 5 years. That is Appleloonian.

    You say that the average Apple investor understands that Apple IOS market share will decline. Given the emotional response to my article I would say your theory is wrong.

    Thanks for your well thought out comment. One of the few. I will try to find the time to answer the others.

    Best
    David
    Nov 16 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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