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David O'Berry  

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  • Structural Change In The Mobile Processor Marketplace: Intel Wins; ARM, AMD Lose [View article]
    Cube has the right of it. Having started with a VIC20 and then Commodore 64, I have watched coders blow things up to the point that at times I wonder if we have less features now for a billion times more code. That is why we have to drive more and more processing power and I think when you begin to interconnect these in true self-healing grids with AI, that is where the most amazing and momentous of magical situations can occur.

    It's here now. It exists. If it does not pull a SkyNet on us and kill us all, and we harness it, we will see advances beyond anything imaginable in the next decade. Believe me, when you have the ability to ask any question (even those you do not know to ask) and you have infinite scale to answer those questions...to run models that no-one even realizes exists...

    I am incredibly jazzed up about where we are all going.

    David
    May 23, 2013. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Structural Change In The Mobile Processor Marketplace: Intel Wins; ARM, AMD Lose [View article]
    Great commentary Russ.

    Some of these haters are nauseating in how they respond.

    Thanks for weathering the ad hominem Arthur, GS, etc.

    Good trading.

    D
    May 22, 2013. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Structural Change In The Mobile Processor Marketplace: Intel Wins; ARM, AMD Lose [View article]
    Zealots of any sort, in this market, have the very real chance of getting their collective butts handed to them in a bad way. Apple proves that. CRUS...etc.

    That holds for loving or hating etc. The market is far more nuanced than that longer term in my opinion. Most of the simplification is for the herd in general.

    Trading is not for falling in love with any stock forever.

    For that matter, investing is not either unless you are in the Warren B. class where you go in and run the business or have substantial input. Intelligent and intuitive agility rules this market right now and will for a long time to come.

    D
    May 20, 2013. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Structural Change In The Mobile Processor Marketplace: Intel Wins; ARM, AMD Lose [View article]
    I don't agree at all Rob because saying that Intel has the "wrong business model" is an over-simplification of what the company, as a whole, does.

    If anything, at this point, market share drivers are so dynamic in this space that anyone with the proper muscle and pipeline can take it. I do not think that was ever the case in the history of computing. These cycles swing so fast and goods have gotten as close to disposable in so many ways that it's simply impossible to lock the market down the way even Intel did previously.

    That is good for Intel because in the end, the simple fact of the matter is, speed, battery life, and features in the total packages (combined software and hardware) are what will drive this accelerated market. Previously, that was not always the case.

    If I am them, I like a dynamic and fluid market especially when you are one of the only companies on the planet that makes and eats your own dogfood. Depending on whether a company will be part of another company (or even a despised competitor) at some point is a biz risk no matter how you slice it.

    To be clear, I think this market is going to explode upwards as it relates to cores etc. I think there is a place at the table for everyone and if you bet for and against accordingly based on the trends then there is money to be made coming and going.

    D
    May 20, 2013. 09:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Structural Change In The Mobile Processor Marketplace: Intel Wins; ARM, AMD Lose [View article]
    Arnold,

    I very much appreciated your article for a number of reasons but I really liked the way you illuminated and gave me ideas on how to explain what are very complex concepts to folks.

    Understanding the stuff on some level is much easier than trying to explain it to folks so that effort is, again, much appreciated.

    D
    May 20, 2013. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Structural Change In The Mobile Processor Marketplace: Intel Wins; ARM, AMD Lose [View article]
    Some of you Intel haters are cracking me up.

    Truly.

    Whether or not it happens for Intel, the market is about future performance not the last 3 to 5 years. Period.

    Yes, I work for Intel via McAfee. No I do not drink kool-aid but I have a solid understanding of tech and futures etc. Arnold is not even talking about one of the strengths Intel has and has recognized as important and that is the software/hardware integration aspect and how that matters both in the consumer space as well as the enterprise.

    Jeez, make your bets one way or the other (I bet it all the way around including that nice AMD run) but stop with the hating on people like his article was targeted at you and your kids or something.

    The market makes no sense right not and ARMH is incredibly overvalued by all traditional measures as it stands. Having said that, Netflix and a number of others are as well so who knows...you may make your billions betting on them anyway.

    At the same time, I do not think you will make those billions shorting Intel. If you do, more power to you though. A market is composed of buyers and sellers. I happen to be long and adding as it makes sense. In the grand scheme of things though, none of us on this thread make a whit of difference what any of these stocks do because they are so large on all sides.

    Find your comfort spot...keep cool and chive on.

    D
    May 20, 2013. 08:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prior Art In Focus In Activision Vs. Worlds Inc. Case [View article]
    This matters.
    May 6, 2013. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prior Art In Focus In Activision Vs. Worlds Inc. Case [View article]
    I am still in process on the article I mentioned previously with the fundamental patent exploration. I am convinced this company has the goods right now but that does not mean they will win. I am concerned about some of the prior art citations not as far as that they cited them but that the quality, expertise, and knowledge of the patent examiner could be a serious point of contention and the way they approach it based on how early these initial patents were filed and how little base knowledge existed at that point.

    That could also work in World's favor but it's just something to think about one way or the other.

    I think the pure play is incredibly strong especially until patent reform hits which I think it will.

    I also picked up a decent sized initial position in MARA yesterday or the day before. They are about as pure a play as I have seen from a litany of directions and they actually buy patents with revenue streams attached which is pretty interesting and kind of manage those relationships as well. Doing DD on their website, they impressed me and so I dug deeper. The challenge with them seems to be dilution when they make acquisitions of patents at times but as long as the revenue stream is accretive and balances that out it seems like a valid if not sure-fire business model.

    Good trading.

    David
    May 1, 2013. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Coinstar's Unique Hybrid Model The First Step To 'Digital Living' Redefined? [View article]
    Am I reading that right? They can literally buy back nearly half of the remaining float that currently exists?

    That does not seem like it should be possible.

    Good trading.

    D
    Apr 25, 2013. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prior Art In Focus In Activision Vs. Worlds Inc. Case [View article]
    I think that is a realistic fear. I am always concerned about that sort of thing in a stock like this especially considering how easy it is to do overall.

    Seek out other patents as in?

    Thanks for the comments on the potential article folks.

    Does anyone have a clean link over to a set of those patents in chronological order? The ones on the WDDD site are jumbled up.

    Good trading.

    David
    Apr 23, 2013. 09:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prior Art In Focus In Activision Vs. Worlds Inc. Case [View article]
    This is one of the strongest pieces as far as information etc. that I have seen in a long time. It especially is amazingly well done from the way you explain things in some very down to earth terms.

    I have been a gamer for 25 plus years all the way back to the original 3D game that was popular (I was an Alpha test on EverQuest) and also saw the progression from the text only to 2D to the 3D worlds as it happened from both the shooter and the MMORPG aspect.

    I have been thinking about writing a piece that takes the patents and prior art and juxtaposes real world experiences and where the change-over seemed to occur in my mind and why it mattered then and now.

    I am interested as to why they did not hit Sony as well considering those worlds hit long before any of Activision's stuff.

    I cannot decide if an article like that would be worthwhile but am still researching in preparation in case.

    Good trading.

    David
    Apr 21, 2013. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What China Should Do About The Gold Crash [View article]
    Personal opinion only to follow...I speak for no-one but myself.

    I don't think the Tiger is a baby at all. I believe that if China's people ever get truly freed you will see things unlike anything in the modern world as far as productivity and ability. Until such time, thought-leadership will always remain a strength of the West while "borrowing" intellectual property and then replicating it with a near slave-like workforce will continue to be a strength of China.

    At the same time, no-one should ever discount the way the nation-state China supports and protects it's businesses far beyond anything we see in most other countries. That too cannot last forever in a world where at a point very soon the under-industrialized nations will rise up rapidly to provide the capabilities that have been their domain over the last 10 years.

    I admire the Chinese machine in a number of ways but long-term repression/oppression of a large segment of the population in a myriad of ways has never been and will never be the true path to greatness for any society. Even the early Chinese dynasties that gave so much to the world knew that.

    Good trading.

    David
    Apr 21, 2013. 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Coinstar's Unique Hybrid Model The First Step To 'Digital Living' Redefined? [View article]
    It would seem that people continue to miss the concept here and if somehow NetFlix has sewn up the market then please please please tell that to the millions upon millions of people that rent from RedBox and also please tell my son who could not care less where the content comes from as long as he can choose.

    I watched someone today talk about Netflix causing TV companies to change remotes and APP makers to stumble all over themselves to make sure they are front and center...

    That is a joke. Period. A remote is the least of my concerns with stickiness of Netflix. I am interested in removing my cable company as soon as possible.

    Netflix clearly cannot do that. INTC may soon help do that. MSFT may soon help do that. Beyond that, it's a clear case of people wishing instead of thinking as it relates to NFLX and it mirrors all the disasters that occurred during the dot bomb.

    I would never short Netflix because the markets simply are never required to make sense but if somehow you think they are the end all and be all with NO evident or even hidden moat, you are sadly and completely mistaken.

    Think please.

    Good trading.

    David
    Apr 19, 2013. 03:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What China Should Do About The Gold Crash [View article]
    Anyone ever thought about what would happen when something that is supposed to have such incredible intrinsic value maybe turns out to have no real intrinsic value in the coming economy?

    History does back up bubbles bursting in the craziest of things and in reality if China and other countries have no real desire to link currency to gold then what value does it hold? The value it has for interconnects etc. is for sure there as is just the jewelry aspect, medicinal aspect, etc. but the same speculation that has blown this bubble up has the very real ability to nuke it below where it started. Lithium has more true intrinsic value if you get real about it as does Palladium.

    Anyway, I am not long or short but I this market has fascinated me for some time and I have been looking for entry points for various metals.

    We will see.

    Best of luck whichever way you are playing it.

    Good trading.

    David
    Apr 16, 2013. 11:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Coinstar's Unique Hybrid Model The First Step To 'Digital Living' Redefined? [View article]
    Thanks for the comments Putster. I too believe that the revenue stream from that model is being woefully underestimated and will not die nearly as quickly as a host of shorts evidently believe.

    It still astounds me how much short we have.

    Good trading.

    David
    Apr 16, 2013. 06:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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