Comments on David Roskoph's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/david-roskoph/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/138937-an-american-renaissance-capitalism-is-alive-and-well?source=feed#comment-515946 515946 " . . . but eventually every citizen must understand that you cannot > have complete security and capitalism at the same time." > > The underlying premise of your statement is that there is a system > that offers complete security. Hogwash. > > I say: ". . . but eventually every citizen must understand that you > cannot have complete security."]]> Sun, 24 May 2009 08:54:18 -0400 Indeed! Moreover, the pursuit of that fallacy is why we are bankrupt.
Thanks.

On May 21 05:34 PM Craig W wrote:

> " . . . but eventually every citizen must understand that you cannot
> have complete security and capitalism at the same time."
>
> The underlying premise of your statement is that there is a system
> that offers complete security. Hogwash.
>
> I say: ". . . but eventually every citizen must understand that you
> cannot have complete security."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138937-an-american-renaissance-capitalism-is-alive-and-well?source=feed#comment-513541 513541 Thu, 21 May 2009 17:34:51 -0400
The underlying premise of your statement is that there is a system that offers complete security. Hogwash.

I say: ". . . but eventually every citizen must understand that you cannot have complete security."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138937-an-american-renaissance-capitalism-is-alive-and-well?source=feed#comment-512768 512768 Thu, 21 May 2009 10:16:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138937-an-american-renaissance-capitalism-is-alive-and-well?source=feed#comment-512739 512739 Thu, 21 May 2009 10:05:31 -0400
Green shoot-ups]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138937-an-american-renaissance-capitalism-is-alive-and-well?source=feed#comment-512708 512708 Thu, 21 May 2009 09:48:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138937-an-american-renaissance-capitalism-is-alive-and-well?source=feed#comment-512692 512692 Thu, 21 May 2009 09:40:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-410067 410067 The irony is that the greatest opportunity for increased productivity, > the foundation for economic progress, will be through the expansion > and reengineering of the 'social net'. For example, medical record > standardization and automation are the first ingredient for the primordial > soup of bits that will inevitably evolve into a world-wide informatic > understanding of the human genome and the principled application > of such ever expanding knowledge, creating profound human benefit > and value achieveable no other way. There may be some opportunities > in the process for our little 'patriotic enterpriser' friends, but > the utility will derive from the power of applied statistical knowlege > across whole populations, not romantic capitalism, as reflected in > recent HMO equity price declines. > > The social and political regime under which contractors can make > fortunes in 'rents' for really generic services should come to an > abrupt end and over time a social 'information utility' should evolve > and extends it's coordination and optimization across whole economies, > much in the manner of a reallly efficient corporation. See the brand > new IBM 'smart planet' ads. The real question is whether any government > in world history would be capable of adopting such a method, or will > some sort of 21st century consumers' union realize the project.
]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 17:01:22 -0500

On Feb 28 10:44 AM utilitus wrote:

> The irony is that the greatest opportunity for increased productivity,
> the foundation for economic progress, will be through the expansion
> and reengineering of the 'social net'. For example, medical record
> standardization and automation are the first ingredient for the primordial
> soup of bits that will inevitably evolve into a world-wide informatic
> understanding of the human genome and the principled application
> of such ever expanding knowledge, creating profound human benefit
> and value achieveable no other way. There may be some opportunities
> in the process for our little 'patriotic enterpriser' friends, but
> the utility will derive from the power of applied statistical knowlege
> across whole populations, not romantic capitalism, as reflected in
> recent HMO equity price declines.
>
> The social and political regime under which contractors can make
> fortunes in 'rents' for really generic services should come to an
> abrupt end and over time a social 'information utility' should evolve
> and extends it's coordination and optimization across whole economies,
> much in the manner of a reallly efficient corporation. See the brand
> new IBM 'smart planet' ads. The real question is whether any government
> in world history would be capable of adopting such a method, or will
> some sort of 21st century consumers' union realize the project.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-409738 409738 Mon, 02 Mar 2009 13:59:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-408798 408798 Again, it's not clear, and probably not true that it was the fiscal > stimulus of World War II that ended the Great Depression. > > All the economic data show that the bottom of the Great Depression > was reached in 1932 (when Roosevelt took office) and from then until > World War II the GDP began climbing, until 1936, when it was almost > at the 1929, pre-crash level. > > http://www.economics-charts.com/gdp/gdp-1929-2004.html > > There was a mild recession in 1937 but from 1938 to 1942 (remember > that the war started for the United States at the very end of 1941) > the American GDP increased. > > Unemployment was the big problem that didn't go away but even unemployment > improved from 25% in 1932 to just under 10% in 1941 the year BEFORE > America entered the war. > > http://books.google.com/books?id=tbQPLp0brgEC&pg=PA211&lpg=PA211&dq=gdp+1929-1942&source=bl&ots=gi42-nqij6&sig=9MxbfQc1bHrVd-iJke28vDfc4jo > > > If current unemployment statistics were calculated the same way they > were in the 1930s American unemployment would be closer to 14% than > it is to the official numbers, during the last ten years. > > Most historians and political scientists, who keep a healthy distance > from economics, think it was the complete defeat of all America's > major competitors that was the principle cause of America's economic > prosperity after World War II, not the economic stimulus that came > from fighting the war. > > In fact, the war certainly crippled the American economy because > it killed and injured hundreds of thousands of productive American > workers and diverted precious resources to into goods and services > that were ultimately destroyed by the enemy. In addition, these goods > and services were produced INSTEAD of other domestic goods and services > such as cars and refrigerators. > > We need to argue for government fiscal spending with other, more > reasonable arguments.]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 01:29:13 -0500

On Mar 01 12:31 PM carey_jim wrote:

> Again, it's not clear, and probably not true that it was the fiscal
> stimulus of World War II that ended the Great Depression.
>
> All the economic data show that the bottom of the Great Depression
> was reached in 1932 (when Roosevelt took office) and from then until
> World War II the GDP began climbing, until 1936, when it was almost
> at the 1929, pre-crash level.
>
> www.economics-charts.c...
>
> There was a mild recession in 1937 but from 1938 to 1942 (remember
> that the war started for the United States at the very end of 1941)
> the American GDP increased.
>
> Unemployment was the big problem that didn't go away but even unemployment
> improved from 25% in 1932 to just under 10% in 1941 the year BEFORE
> America entered the war.
>
> books.google.com/books...
>
>
> If current unemployment statistics were calculated the same way they
> were in the 1930s American unemployment would be closer to 14% than
> it is to the official numbers, during the last ten years.
>
> Most historians and political scientists, who keep a healthy distance
> from economics, think it was the complete defeat of all America's
> major competitors that was the principle cause of America's economic
> prosperity after World War II, not the economic stimulus that came
> from fighting the war.
>
> In fact, the war certainly crippled the American economy because
> it killed and injured hundreds of thousands of productive American
> workers and diverted precious resources to into goods and services
> that were ultimately destroyed by the enemy. In addition, these goods
> and services were produced INSTEAD of other domestic goods and services
> such as cars and refrigerators.
>
> We need to argue for government fiscal spending with other, more
> reasonable arguments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-408751 408751 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 23:53:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-408748 408748 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 23:52:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-408430 408430 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 17:45:19 -0500
Just as we are doing our government should be tightening its belt and only spending on what will allow people to get through this period, not just throwing money around, hoping it will solve the problem. It will, in fact, lengthen the problem.

This appears to be a complex problem but the solutions are simple: we need to let bad companies go under without taking the entire economy down with them and we need to get our balance sheets in order. This will take time and I think that if this were explained to the people and the government quit changing the rules every few days we would have less panic and more optimism, even as we endure the hardships we must endure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-408143 408143 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 14:15:57 -0500
That is about the debt to equity that Enron had before it tanked.

Lets call this what it really is: The broke loaning money to the broke.

Won't work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407993 407993 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 12:31:17 -0500
All the economic data show that the bottom of the Great Depression was reached in 1932 (when Roosevelt took office) and from then until World War II the GDP began climbing, until 1936, when it was almost at the 1929, pre-crash level.

www.economics-charts.c...

There was a mild recession in 1937 but from 1938 to 1942 (remember that the war started for the United States at the very end of 1941) the American GDP increased.

Unemployment was the big problem that didn't go away but even unemployment improved from 25% in 1932 to just under 10% in 1941 the year BEFORE America entered the war.

books.google.com/books...

If current unemployment statistics were calculated the same way they were in the 1930s American unemployment would be closer to 14% than it is to the official numbers, during the last ten years.

Most historians and political scientists, who keep a healthy distance from economics, think it was the complete defeat of all America's major competitors that was the principle cause of America's economic prosperity after World War II, not the economic stimulus that came from fighting the war.

In fact, the war certainly crippled the American economy because it killed and injured hundreds of thousands of productive American workers and diverted precious resources to into goods and services that were ultimately destroyed by the enemy. In addition, these goods and services were produced INSTEAD of other domestic goods and services such as cars and refrigerators.

We need to argue for government fiscal spending with other, more reasonable arguments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407991 407991 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 12:30:42 -0500
eye-on-washington.blog...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407957 407957 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 12:07:46 -0500
Keynes contends that when consumers and business won't spend, government must step in to fill the void. But if consumers and business were given tax relief equal to the total amount of the stimulus package, they would de-leverage (through savings) to the point of comfort (which they must ultimately do anyway) and then begin spending in ways that would get us out of this recession/depression much sooner than will occur under the Democratic spending programs. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407936 407936 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 11:54:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407674 407674 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 09:16:39 -0500
During the civil war in China, they kept printing money, the inflation rate was 100% a day.

We could control inflation only by produce more goods. We are not going to get better till every unployed back to work. There is plenty work, we can make our own shoes and grow our own tomatos. Why we have to buy from China and Mexico and put our own people with unployment check - printed money for inflation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407527 407527 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 05:50:59 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407478 407478 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 02:45:02 -0500
The bubble in the dollar is also unsustainable, but much less visible, because the dollar has not really gone up much on the exchanges. The over valuation is more a function of the increase in circulation by the Fed which up until now has not been met in a meaningful decrease in the exchange rate.

Devaluation of the dollar is, however, going to cause huge problems with your major creditors. The great boast that America has never defaulted on its debt will mean nothing when most of your creditors feel defrauded.

To recover the US needs massive increases in fixed investment. Unfortunately, the Stimulus largely panders to the consumer as ever, so a huge opportunity has been lost there, but it is really Private Investment that is required. The problem has largely been cause because market conditions in the US have made it much more attractive for US companies to invest overseas. Many US companies are not going to have the financial strength to do much investing of any kind in the near future, so the US is going to need massive investment from abroad. This is not going to happen the way the tables are rigged against such investment.

Devaluation of the dollar is the only thing that is going to turn this around. Once it has been seen to stablize at a much lower level, it will remove the fear of losing ones investment against a depreciating currency and it will make cost of production in the US more realistic. However, it will mean that statistically the relative size of the GDP will be much smaller than previously. This is what is known as waking up to reality. The US economy just isn't four times as big as Chinas. The false sense of wealth because of the distortions in the financial markets is in the process of destroying the US economy. To salvage what is left and to start to rebuild these distortions need to be removed and the propensity to invest in non-productive precious needs to give way to the old virtues of risk and return.

And yes, devaluation of the currency is going to inflate prices and everyone is going to poorer, but that ultimately is the price you pay for financial mismanagement. The problem comes with wage inflation. Wages do need to increase substantially in order for people to actually repay their debts. This will in effect be a redistribution of wealth between the Haves and Have Nots. However, wages need to rise less than prices, or the competitive advantages of devaluation will simply evaporate, and the economy will spiral into hyper-inflation.

This is going to take a decade to unwind, and anyone that thinks it is going to be easy and doesn't require great sacrifice has not understood the problem.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407441 407441 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 00:39:49 -0500 We've been 'stimulated',
Why not try deleveraging. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407219 407219 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 16:42:00 -0500
So it is both.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407119 407119 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 13:54:09 -0500
deflation of assets vs. deflation of a currency are two distinct things, and more precision is required for many writers trying to make their points.

currency inflation will come, only question is when, how high and how long it stays. this will help reflate our assets to some extent, yet the real wild card here is if our wages deflate strongly in advance of the onset of generalized inflation. if that happens, the progress will be very slow in terms of real recovery.

best of luck on those aggressive equity buys. i might see the modest logic of averaging in to some things if you're a committed long=term buy and hold type, but even given that, picking individual companies is still very risky, imo. sounds to me like you're overly willing to lose a bunch of your money (at least on paper) well before there's a mature plan and any real results.






]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407098 407098 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 13:24:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407069 407069 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 12:50:17 -0500 The shadow market created artificial credit (my nice words for fraud)
in the trillions, and then suddenly this disappears with their defaults.
I think that this is a normal adjustment.
The govt. is now committed funds and printing money to restore an equilibrium of sorts. And THAT will cause a true inflation.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407055 407055 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 12:38:17 -0500
For better or worse, it appears interconnected global supply and demand constraints are trumping local disconnected monetary policy FOR EVERYTHING.

This is usually when globalization breaks down local sovereignty takes over, and interconnectedness gives way to fear. If trade wars are avoided, then, I agree with you this IS the time to buy cash generating equities. If trade wars and fear are unavoidable, then buy gold (or oil).
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407039 407039 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 12:20:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407035 407035 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 12:14:20 -0500
scriabinop23.blogspot....

We're all thinking along the same lines.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407025 407025 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 12:05:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287-it-s-not-a-credit-crunch-it-s-a-deflation?source=feed#comment-407012 407012 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 11:53:19 -0500
You're a man after my own heart. I just offered a similar approach - seekingalpha.com/artic... ]]>