David Roskoph

Showdown at the Federal Reserve Corral

Spot on! Although the corraling has magic helpers to assist in the temporary insanity. Do you realy think the public races the markets around? How about seasoned managers? Of course not. The market is there, center stage, to both entertain and fleece. The Bull and Bear raids of the pre-SEC days are back with a vengance - conducted by whom? Can anyone even bring themselves to pronounce collusion?

U.S. Growth Probably Now at 4.5 Percent

Indeed the recovery is at hand and the recession a painful memory. However, the market's invisible hand must shake all available easy money out. Ergo, taking 'er down as the recovery manifests will convince the loose hands that a double dip is dead ahead. Forget it! Emotional trends are tough to kick.

This is a recovery for the textbooks, starting from the once-cancerous inards out; we are a stronger nation going forward. The one-card-monty of (too) free market capitalism - that gave us the contract law dot-com and real estate booms - will be replaced by something with better odds. Why even the Federal Reserve is threatening to be more responsible.

Market Overview in Eight Charts

Indeed the "boys" can make a quick buck trouncing the markets as the good news becomes more consistent, simply because it makes no sense. After all, if the markets were a stimulus-response machine, the mathematicians would own the world. This is a new Bull and has a long, long way to go.

Roma please.

Real and Fake: A Tale of Two Economies

As I wrote to very happy clients -
You may think I’m deluded and this market rally is destined to fail. Certainly that is the popular belief. Remember that the market has two functions 1) to provide a mechanism to get money from savers to builders – the investors pledge their capital and the companies use it to expand; 2) to transfer wealth from speculators to professionals. It’s working as good as ever. What changes with time is the medium to shake good shares away from weak hands. As a herding beast, we comfort each other on a sinking ship as long as we all agree it’s sinking. When someone protests that the waterline is falling, they shoot him and settle in for their community swim. If you have a chance to read some of the comments from articles I published a few months ago, you’ll see this in action.

Getting ready for a swim Mudduckk?

Real and Fake: A Tale of Two Economies

Cynicus Maximus, the abject bankruptcy we now enjoy is virtually irrelevant as only Goldman Sachs could or would prosecute our failure. We remain Capitalism's Captain. Whatever the result of this reformation - higher deficits or income caps - we will still be the best living example of Capitalism on Earth.

We have survived the tearing of the veil exposing the lie that 1) we could afford our past lifestyle including retirement for 14 years and 2) that fancy financing equaled growth. Now what, start over? No. We are rebuilding the foundation stronger than it has been in 35 years; this is a recover and the start of a new Bull Market.

Believe it or don't, the desire to expand will hit with almost simultaneous effect and the unemployment ranks will be substantially reduced. It will be a blistering Christmas and the fact that the middle class has rejoined its mojo will drive the market higher. It's a matter of restored confidence.

All the haggling and dire statistics are financial theater, meant to shake the weak hands in or out - just like always.

Real and Fake: A Tale of Two Economies

Cynicus Maximus, the abject bankruptcy we now enjoy is virtually irrelevant as only Goldman Sachs could or would prosecute our failure. We remain Capitalism

11 Economies Worse Off than U.S.

The longer my teeth get, the more it seems that not only the US but the world is driven by America's middle class. They produce, consume and give better than any species on Earth. Every other country tries to clone them but so far, they remain unique.

Then the issue becomes how to tap them out while not reducing thier productivity. It's a three way battle between taxes, energy and debt; each placating one of the tree groups that runs the show. If any of the three gets too greedy, they'll break the back of the engine that determines the fate of global capitalism.

Although we are mathematically bankrupt now, our middle class remains the best show on Earth. Despite our subprime foray, we will ressurect the world we almost felled - starting now. It's strictly a matter of franchise value and we have no cogent competition.

U.S. Economy Stabilizing: Longer Term Outlook Shows Dramatic Improvement

Mad,

People are unchanged throughout the ages. They need to hope and that manifests in investment. There is presently no alternative: interest rates - nil, interest in real estate - next to nil, interest in precious metals - tepid. All that (practicically) remains is equities. Logic be damned, emotion will triumph. It's going up.

If Goldman Sachs Reports Record Profits, How Will That Affect U.S. Markets?

The world is mathematically bankrupt. So what, who's going to call the debt, God? No, Goldman Sachs.

Is Our Lost Decade on the Fast Track?

SImilar to Japan, yes. A deflation occurs when no amount of central bank steroids is enough to prop up a central bank abeited bubble. Japan slogged through a depression because they have little domestic consumption and, in the world economy, they are expendable.

No so for us. Therefore we did indeed experience a depression (modern) and this is a recovery. Step back and appreciate that the pace has been at internet speed. The carnage unmitigated and the reform, ten year's worth as well. All in 18 months!

The vital difference is that we consume heartily and are not expendable (at least not yet). It will be a "V" not and "L", much to the disbelief of anyone who can add up our mountain of debt because the deficit is tantamount to WWIII. Belive it or dont, profit or cower.

A Return to the Gold Standard? Forget About It!

Author,

Defacto since 1973. The point is that gold will never go back to any relationship to dollars. It's detaching as a monetary instrument, ie something with "intrinsic" value. I have read that the gold / dollar relationship is north of $6,400 presently, by 1935 standards.

The Truth About Unemployment Numbers

Steve,

Imagine how lovely the country if they only stayed receptionists; the lawyers I mean.

A Return to the Gold Standard? Forget About It!

Author,

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Prospects Remain Dim for Financial Services

Steve,

Stand back and look at this from another perspective. We've had a full decade of destrustion and now we are getting a decade or reconstuction; a depression and recovery in internet time. The carnage is obvious even through the time has been compressed. The present stimulus will function as a world war did 60 years ago. Only now the entire world is dancing to a capitalist tune. The value of the US franchise remains atop the world despite our mortgage-backed dalliances and bankrupt status. It's a recovery, there is no Great Pumpkin.

A Return to the Gold Standard? Forget About It!

Doesn't anyone get it? Gold is not able to reinsinuate itself into a monetary sytem growing faster than a rabbit farm. It is being relegated to pure commodity status, exiting its monetary role. The world is awash with paper and its value has more to do with the francise printing it than commodities in the storehouse. Gold is in a drifting lifeboat without a rudder as the sea of paper currency rises higher and higher. If we had passed the vail into boundless inflation, gold would be trading in the thousands and there would be violence. We haven't and, truth be told, the presses have not yet replaced deflation's toll. Sell gold, as ironic as it may seem, US dollars will be the new gold standard for a bankrupt world, based purely on the strength of the productivity and innovation of the world's best franchise.

ps. I'm waiting for the tomatoes.