David Roskoph

Credit Crisis Watch: Some Positive Developments

Very nice but shhhhhhh the herd is still selling.

On the Eve of Recession, Some Historical Perspective

Beautiful. We all muse that we'd recognize an economic train wreck as it occurs, if not before. We're prone to every flaw that our predicesors owned and we are retracing their steps. We are now fully in a Japan-style (modern depression) deflation but few will acknowledge it, thinking perhaps that their own personal bell would be sounding the alarm. How is it that a government/Fed that oversaw this can colossal misppropriation could now come to their senses. There is no Deus Ex Machina. We'll have to wrangle through this like our oriental neighbors over the next several years, unless another world war crops up.

Another Look at Treasury/Corporate Bond Spreads and Risk Premium

The assumption that US Treasuries are "risk free" will be out the window if our Treasury gets into the business of underwriting bad mortgages. That spread will lose its reference and need to be applied to a more responsible Central Bank's fiat. We are willingly demoting ourselves in the vain delusion that creative financing somehow equals real growth. Our Central Bank seems intent to follow every other failure that chose fiat over discipline.