David Schrader

Alpha's Not Earned From Riding the Tides

Disclosure update: I have sold out of the TLT puts and picked up C puts.

Who Is Jerome Kerviel?

Could it be implied then that the "bottom" people are discussing that was apparently put in place that day was actually a sham? Which would then mean we have yet to see the actual sell-off. I'm still in the bearish camp.

Anyone else... Thoughts? Ideas? Great places to eat in NYC?

Selling Over? I'm Just Not Buying It.

Guess what folks.... nobody really has a grasp on the extent of these economic issues. The only real question to ask is this: where is the current risk/reward worse? Is it in being net long and seeing a serious and rapid decline in asset valuations OR in being net short/in cash and seeing a rapid increase in asset valuations? What's been happening when the headlines are positive and how about when negative?

If you choose to examine this on your own, you'll find out the answer on how the market is feeling on a day to day basis. That recovery the other day, in my opinion, should not be fully credited to the 75bp cut but instead to market participants who realized that there was no legitimate reason, at that point in time, for such a rapid and significant market decline. Therefore they went long ASAP to punish the sellers for their overreaction. Don't be fooled into thinking those 75bp are going to change anything significant in the short term.

A wound is still a wound if you bandage it up. Time and internal healing processes are the only things that can mend it - neither of which have occurred as of yet.

Blood on the Street Means Opportunity

Amen Clorox.

Blood on the Street Means Opportunity

I'll call you what you are, sourpuss. Mathematically and logically speaking, moments of extreme stress in the financial system are accompanied by weakness in the financial markets (mainly stocks). Using some common sense developed over the few years I've been alive on this wonderful and blessed ball of dirt, I figured if I've been in cash since July and chose to get in the market tomorrow, I've saved myself quite a bit of losses. What do you think?

No need for examples from the past (although they're there any time we've had financial crises) when it's truly a matter of simple mathematics.

Why Is This Market Holding Up?

The Fed's moves will have virtually no impact for months to come. This is the same thing that happened the last time the Fed began lowering rates. The rate cuts boost the market for the first one or two, and then each one after is no longer a positive catalyst for stocks. The market continues to fall because we are going into a recession, if we're not in one already.

Optimism and denial is holding this market up. The bulls are about to run into a brick wall and the bears will be able to rip them to shreds for a time. How can one not view such conclusive evidence as has been presented across SeekingAlpha and a multitude of other mediums of information and not agree?

Read Hussman's article for an actual explanation.
www.seekingalpha.com/a...

2007 Market Review: Things May Be Better Than They Seem

omooc
The strictness of legislation I believe you're thinking of will (probably) only come from the Republican party. I doubt a Democrat will come into office and enact a strict immigration law, much less enforce it. They'd rather spend that money on a countless number of other social programs.

That being said, only time will tell who takes over the White House. More importantly is whether or not that person continues the current pendulum's swing of power to the Executive Branch. I suspect in either case we're going to see the other two branches lash out and grab for some of their strength back. A strong President can get more accomplished than a weak one, so the impact on illegal immigrants will (in my opinion) be impacted mainly by this.

2007 Market Review: Things May Be Better Than They Seem

To the person not confident enough to provide a real name (User 134244)

The idea is to protect your wealth as best as possible, no? If one believes there will be harder times ahead, why would he/she not pare back their holdings? You speak as if attempting to outsmart others, to compete, is a negative thing... why such a negative bias?

2007 Market Review: Things May Be Better Than They Seem

sol

To be honest, they changed the title on me. My intention was to get across how negative I view the current economic conditions. Moving forward, I see an atypical recession (a very, very strong one). My original title was "If I were your age, I'd be depressed". The editors changed it on me (which is fine) but it conveys a message I didn't intend.