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David Shirk

 
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  • AMD: A Misunderstood Opportunity With 50-100% Upside By 2017 [View article]
    That too is a valid point. One thing I noticed about amd is that the 'big boys' give no mind to what it actually does - but upgrade/downgrade it on whim alone. So even IF AMD was a phenomenal value, I still wouldn't buy it as a 'trusted' investment given the games played by the street. Do I have a true reason to believe AMD is undervalued on good technical ground - nope. I do however know how the market works and have seen things like this before. On the flip side, all the 'AMD is Dead' nonsense is a matter of amusement to me, and it goes to show you who really knows the markets and who doesn't. Granted there have been a few times the last year where I was wrong about where AMD was going. On the flip side I never expected a stock to get downgraded over and over despite higher revenues, and a good outlook - factors that did not change until a quarter or two ago. No that was not good foresight on their part either. That having been said, I am holding a new chunk specifically for the time when (and if) AMD hits the high 1 lower 2 range. I mean seriously, that would really do good for my cost basis (I made the mistake of not selling all in the 4.20 range). anyway, time is the only teller here, and i think all of this 'in-between - AMD is undervalued, or AMD is Dead' hype is pure and unadulterated nonsense.
    Nov 8, 2014. 05:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: A Misunderstood Opportunity With 50-100% Upside By 2017 [View article]
    I am personally loving all the negativity here. If it helps bring the price down - more please! I am not going to pump AMD or anything like that, and honestly cannot see it going anywhere really until late 2015 at the earliest. IF they pump out a good chip by then. It had momentum but now is the time for AMD to regroup - the outcome will determine whether it is a boom or a bust - that simple. You can argue technicles all day long - but someone already hit that nail 'consumer perception'. My only disagreement there is it also perception of the market as a whole - not just consumers. This is why I dont mind spending a chunk of change here in there accumulating in the mid twos - though i would like to see it lower than that, it may never happen. Either way, I would never hinge an investment strategy on AMD - like going on a rollar coaster with no harness. It is something I would play merely on the side for a 50-50. Honestly I believe it will play out well, but only time will tell.
    Nov 6, 2014. 05:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons To Buy AMD On The Dip [View article]
    "I tend to be the person in my family who decides what computer components go in all my family members PCs. Literally all of them.. You think you have a headache ? OY"
    How many family members do you have?????
    Oct 24, 2014. 07:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    It is - the speculation part was +/- 30% IPC gains in one of the CPU's in 2015. Honestly until the bulldozer (piledriver, excavator) architecture is completely trashed, I do not see any further updates worthwhile until 2016.

    Kaveri was the last chip that has any real innovation (HUMA etc). If AMD can seemlessly make ARM x86, then they have a potential winner - but until that happens, I do not see anything better.

    The only reason late 2015 might make a difference is support for pcie3 and ddr4 (a big thing amongst enthusiasts). However until something is done about memory bottlenecks, not much more can be expected which is why the bulldozer architecture needs to go.
    Oct 23, 2014. 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    Just going to throw this out there.

    So far this is more rumor than anything else, but it is a strong example of why I do not see AMD as a 'spec stock', and why I believe it is not done for.

    http://bit.ly/1sakEYz

    Seriously - even if this is only half true in some cases, it will be enough.
    Oct 22, 2014. 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    Just PM'd you. I apologize for last comment - cross in wires. You are not a troll and I apologize for the bad assumption. Thank you for your time!
    Oct 21, 2014. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    "The majority of AMD's CPU sales are APUs and not 32nm products, as their sales of FX-series chips and corresponding Opterons are essentially zero. AMD's server market share is below ARM and has dropped sharply since Bulldozer was released. Ironically, Bulldozer was a 'server first' architecture meant to claw back market share from Intel"

    The only APU/CPU on sale that is not 32 nm is Kaveri. You are saying that the bulk of AMD CPU sales are Kaveri only?

    Look man, I could go on and on, but seriously? Comments like "A minute of research would have saved you loads of embarrassment here. To make matters worse, the 32nm process you keep referring to is 32nm-SOI and absolutely nothing like the 28nm-SHP and HPP processes from TSMC and GloFo, respectively, or anything below those either."

    Not only did you completely miss the point of the article but your comments are not a lick better than the article itself. Oh, and your 3-5 years from the end of the drawing board to an actual manufacturer product? Yeah - maybe years ago, but not today. And I said 'from the end of the drawing board to a product at LEAST a year'.

    If this is all you have, then please take your master trolling level elsewhere where it will be more appreciated.
    Oct 21, 2014. 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    Thanks! Will give a more in depth response later, but in the meantime, where did you find most sales to be from the APU?

    Thanks!
    Oct 21, 2014. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    "AMD has stated they will move to 20nm (considered a transitory node) APUs and GPUs in 2015 and then move to 14/16nm FinFET in 2016 and beyond." relase dates when though? End of 2015 early 2016 if I am not mistaken. I stated that until that time, there is not much more to expect. As to the 22 nm node Carrizo - the question is whether or not OEM's will adopt it. IMHO, the Kaveri was quite a nice offering too - my 7850K has never let me down before and is a nice little chip.
    That having been said, the market does not necessarily deal with reality. The Kaveri has been met with great user reviews, but is still on the financial side as being lack luster. Even in the tech side you have the endless armies of Intel people saying a cheap Intel processor and graphics card is cheaper then the Kaveri with better performance (which is utter nonsense, but hey, its the internet you can say what you want). And the current problem is that OEMs will use whatever supplier they know the consumer will buy - not necessarily what may actually be the best option.
    That having been said, I have been seeing more and more APU based laptops springing up. The downside is they are running mostly Richlands, which lose to the Kaveri in all ways. If OEM's are not jumping all over Kaveri, then I am wondering if they will show the same hesitation to the Carrizo.
    Time will tell.
    Oct 18, 2014. 08:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    If AMD was not such an old company (relatively speaking) - then yes I would. However considering it has been around for decades publicly traded, has seen it's lumps before, and has proven its ability to get out of tight spots - no I do not. Risky? Certainly. Spec? Not by a mile - this isn't some wildcat venture....
    Oct 18, 2014. 07:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    Tight - but hardly unattainable. Also, using only those two factors leaves out a lot.
    Oct 18, 2014. 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    Thank you for that. Call's and puts are not my thing - but you make a valid point here!
    Oct 18, 2014. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    Good point you have there. Will see what Yellen does when this round of QE comes to a close. IF it expires and not replaced with something else, then the market as a whole will take a nasty beating.
    That having been said, if she does replace it with some other Fiscal measure, then the fallout later will be even worse.
    To say nothing of the possibility of the dollar losing reserve currency status....
    Oct 18, 2014. 06:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    I left those out because there have already been a myriad of articles covering this. This article discussed a strategy on leveraging the new capabilities - not the capabilities themselves.
    As for the late 2015-2016, I do not go by the aforementioned rumor mill. Most of what you read of 'leaked information' on them is usually wrong, and often builds expectations that just aren't realistic.
    I did mention the time needed to actually make a chip, which is why i listed 2016 in the article.
    Oct 18, 2014. 05:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Phoenix Or Dud? [View article]
    First of all thank you. I am now a cheapskate I guess. I am glad your pockets and intellectual depth doth far exceed mine own!

    Seriously, if Intel followed your advice 10 years ago, it wouldn't even be on the board anymore.

    Second - if AMD did go that route, then they would go under in a matter of quarters. A huge chunk of revenue for AMD comes from their dwindling PC market share. If they completely abandon that as you suggest, then they would not last another quarter.

    As stated, this is a very short idea that completely kills the long term. AMD just needs to use 2015 to bring out something completely new and worth it, or be faced with market extinction.
    Oct 18, 2014. 05:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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