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David Sims  

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  • Is It A Bubble? Stocks And Bonds Look Poised For A Drop [View article]
    Take profits on your shorts. Earnings season is coming.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury Will Profit From Derivatives And Higher Interest Rates [View article]
    Thanks for 'keeping it real' as always.
    Jun 29, 2015. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury Will Profit From Derivatives And Higher Interest Rates [View article]
    I have to make a living. The timeline on these investments is stretching into 2016/2017.

    There are other opportunities that will benefit from the same macro-trends. An example is mortgage servicers, who book fair value gains into income as interest rates rise. I recently wrote a piece on this.

    I'm also moving heavily into Impac Mortgage, which has quadrupled sales volume this year.
    Jun 26, 2015. 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Bubble? Stocks And Bonds Look Poised For A Drop [View article]
    Exactly...
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Bubble? Stocks And Bonds Look Poised For A Drop [View article]
    Not true.
    I read in Zero Hedge yesterday about a $140 billion bond fund that has gone into cash.
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Bubble? Stocks And Bonds Look Poised For A Drop [View article]
    "A situation in which prices for securities, especially stocks, rise far above their actual value. This trend continues until investors realize just how far prices have risen, usually, but not always, resulting in a sharp decline. Bubbles usually occur when investors, for any number of reasons, believe that demand for the stocks will continue to rise or that the stocks will become profitable in short order. Both of these scenarios result in increased prices."

    Replace the word "stocks" with "bonds." Have you noticed that bank CDs pay people about 1% to lock in money for several years? That's not normal.
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Judge rebukes government in AIG case [View news story]
    I think this is the ruling.
    http://bit.ly/1IfE1Z0
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage Servicers Could Do Well This Quarter [View article]
    Couldn't they hedge the earnings volatility with interest rate swaps?

    Given the answer to that question is yes, it seems they are choosing to reinvest cash into the business because rates will eventually go up.

    It appears to me that they have a long-term perspective. And I keep hearing about how bad management is with these servicers, but I don't see what people are complaining about yet. Maybe the stock price....
    May 24, 2015. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage Servicers Could Do Well This Quarter [View article]
    Anyone have any insight on who is shorting these stocks?
    May 23, 2015. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impac Mortgage, A Hidden Value? [View article]
    That's a separate company. The mortgage division is not involved with that and was sold.
    May 19, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Privatized GSEs could cause spike in mortgage rates [View news story]
    There is also an implication for the bond bubble.
    May 18, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private mortgage insurers losing market share to FHA [View news story]
    Mortgage insurers should get used to this. FHA is going to replace Fannie and Freddie, according to the Administration's wind-down plans.

    Unless they come to their senses and simply release the GSEs from C-ship.
    May 14, 2015. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impac Mortgage, A Hidden Value? [View article]
    I'm very happy with the way this trade has worked out. To be perfectly honest, the company has performed better than my own expectations. The recent deal with Macquarie and the acquisition of Cash Call have increased their operational efficiency without impacting the balance sheet. They are in growth mode once again.

    My view on the preferred stock has not changed and I maintain a large overweight position in my own portfolio. As I recently expressed in other articles, I am now very bullish on the common stock. I think the company has been ahead of their competition in this market and is ramping up to create a platform for private lending.

    Based on guidance provided for April, and my own due diligence, I think they broke $1 billion in originations for the month. They may have another exceptional quarter, despite an uptick in interest rates.
    May 14, 2015. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impac Mortgage Is A Story To Watch In 2015 [View article]
    I think you will see what I mean when you read these documents.

    This is the tender offer that altered the B and C preferred shares. I don't see any mention of stripping voting rights.
    http://1.usa.gov/1e23hKC

    This is the original document. Read (6) VOTING RIGHTS section (d) specifically. It says the rights will be in place for the shares that are "outstanding at the time" and it also prohibits the issuance of new shares without a vote.
    http://1.usa.gov/1PH7xdY

    I don't believe they can strip the shareholder's right to vote on their own structure in the future. So, when I say voting rights are intact, that's what I mean.
    May 13, 2015. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impac Mortgage Is A Story To Watch In 2015 [View article]
    If Impac wants to alter the shares in any way, a vote must take place among the remaining holders. This would include issuance, redemption or tendering the shares. In order for the class to be altered, 66.67% of holders must agree. That's all I will say on the matter.
    May 13, 2015. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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