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David Sims  

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  • Impac Mortgage Easily Clears First Hurdle Of 2015 [View article]
    I have done a lot of follow-up pieces on tumblr.
    http://tinyurl.com/omg...

    I spoke to a shareholder the other day who told me that the DTA recognized in Q1 was for FY15. Apparently, they said this in the conference call and I missed it. I don't know if that has a bearing on whether they recognize any DTA in Q2 or Q3, but it implies that they will have $68 million taxable income in FY15. That's over $5 per diluted share. This is a $30 to $40 stock if they gain some ground on the expansion to 41 states.
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix - Zero Regard For Cash Flow Concerns [View article]
    Keep the high quality analysis coming. I just went short yesterday. The current valuation only makes sense if they are able to raise prices and not hurt their growth rate. I think this is a big question.

    I say $60 is fair value.
    Jul 17, 2015. 02:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The cost of doing business? [View news story]
    Let's hope that this is now over. It's done very little to move the economy forward.
    Jul 17, 2015. 07:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Bubble? Stocks And Bonds Look Poised For A Drop [View article]
    Take profits on your shorts. Earnings season is coming.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury Will Profit From Derivatives And Higher Interest Rates [View article]
    Thanks for 'keeping it real' as always.
    Jun 29, 2015. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury Will Profit From Derivatives And Higher Interest Rates [View article]
    I have to make a living. The timeline on these investments is stretching into 2016/2017.

    There are other opportunities that will benefit from the same macro-trends. An example is mortgage servicers, who book fair value gains into income as interest rates rise. I recently wrote a piece on this.

    I'm also moving heavily into Impac Mortgage, which has quadrupled sales volume this year.
    Jun 26, 2015. 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Bubble? Stocks And Bonds Look Poised For A Drop [View article]
    Exactly...
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Bubble? Stocks And Bonds Look Poised For A Drop [View article]
    Not true.
    I read in Zero Hedge yesterday about a $140 billion bond fund that has gone into cash.
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Bubble? Stocks And Bonds Look Poised For A Drop [View article]
    "A situation in which prices for securities, especially stocks, rise far above their actual value. This trend continues until investors realize just how far prices have risen, usually, but not always, resulting in a sharp decline. Bubbles usually occur when investors, for any number of reasons, believe that demand for the stocks will continue to rise or that the stocks will become profitable in short order. Both of these scenarios result in increased prices."

    Replace the word "stocks" with "bonds." Have you noticed that bank CDs pay people about 1% to lock in money for several years? That's not normal.
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Judge rebukes government in AIG case [View news story]
    I think this is the ruling.
    http://bit.ly/1IfE1Z0
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage Servicers Could Do Well This Quarter [View article]
    Couldn't they hedge the earnings volatility with interest rate swaps?

    Given the answer to that question is yes, it seems they are choosing to reinvest cash into the business because rates will eventually go up.

    It appears to me that they have a long-term perspective. And I keep hearing about how bad management is with these servicers, but I don't see what people are complaining about yet. Maybe the stock price....
    May 24, 2015. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage Servicers Could Do Well This Quarter [View article]
    Anyone have any insight on who is shorting these stocks?
    May 23, 2015. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impac Mortgage, A Hidden Value? [View article]
    That's a separate company. The mortgage division is not involved with that and was sold.
    May 19, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Privatized GSEs could cause spike in mortgage rates [View news story]
    There is also an implication for the bond bubble.
    May 18, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private mortgage insurers losing market share to FHA [View news story]
    Mortgage insurers should get used to this. FHA is going to replace Fannie and Freddie, according to the Administration's wind-down plans.

    Unless they come to their senses and simply release the GSEs from C-ship.
    May 14, 2015. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
566 Comments
938 Likes