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David Sims is a full-time independent analyst and contributor on popular investment sites such as Seeking Alpha. David covers distressed equities and activist investing campaigns most recently. In the past, covered topics included covered call trading and the housing market. David is Certified... More
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  • Initial Claims 4-Week Moving Average At 7-Year Lows

    The big news this morning, eclipsing the downward revision on 1st Quarter GDP, is the fact that initial claims data hit 300,000 last week. And most importantly, the 4-week moving average of claims is at a 7-year low.

    Adding layers of complexity is the news that GDP contracted due to slower than expected inventory growth. This is all setting up to create an inflationary trend in the second half of the year, caused by labor gains, economic growth, and draw-downs on inventory.

    10 Year View of Claims Data

    US 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Chart

    US 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance data by YCharts

    5 Year Chart

    A closer view of the data over a 5 year period shows the obvious downtrend, post-recession.

    US 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Chart

    US 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance data by YCharts

    Reading into this data, one might also want to look at the year to date data and compare this to weak GDP results. The most recent revised GDP figures from this morning show contraction in the economy with -1.0% GDP growth. Meanwhile claims data continued to drop.

    US 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Chart

    US 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance data by YCharts

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    May 29 9:21 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Economic Reports, May 12th To 16th
    DateTime (NYSE:ET)StatisticForMarket Expects
    05/12/1402:00:00 PMTreasury BudgetApr+$114.0B
    05/13/1408:30:00 AMRetail SalesApr0.30%
    05/13/1408:30:00 AMRetail Sales ex-autoApr0.60%
    05/13/1408:30:00 AMExport Prices ex-ag.AprNA
    05/13/1408:30:00 AMImport Prices ex-oilAprNA
    05/13/1410:00:00 AMBusiness InventoriesMar0.40%
    05/14/1407:00:00 AMMBA Mortgage Index05/10/14NA
    05/14/1408:30:00 AMPPIApr0.20%
    05/14/1408:30:00 AMCore PPIApr0.20%
    05/14/1410:30:00 AMCrude Inventories05/10/14NA
    05/15/1408:30:00 AMInitial Claims05/10/14325K
    05/15/1408:30:00 AMContinuing Claims05/03/142700K
    05/15/1408:30:00 AMCPIApr0.30%
    05/15/1408:30:00 AMCore CPIApr0.20%
    05/15/1408:30:00 AMEmpire ManufacturingMay4.8
    05/15/1409:00:00 AMNet Long-Term TIC FlowsMarNA
    05/15/1409:15:00 AMIndustrial ProductionApr0.10%
    05/15/1409:15:00 AMCapacity UtilizationApr79.20%
    05/15/1410:00:00 AMPhiladelphia FedMay9.1
    05/15/1410:00:00 AMNAHB Housing Market IndexMay48
    05/15/1410:30:00 AMNatural Gas Inventories05/10/14NA
    05/16/1408:30:00 AMHousing StartsApr975K
    05/16/1408:30:00 AMBuilding PermitsApr1000K
    05/16/1409:55:00 AMMich SentimentMay84.5

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    May 10 8:44 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Disney Reports Earnings Of $1.08 Per Share, Beating Estimates

    Disney (NYSE:DIS) reported earnings of $1.08, and analysts expected 96 cents per share. Adjusted earnings per share was $1.11. 2nd Quarter revenue was $11.65 billion versus $11.2 billion expected. Shares popped in after-hours.

    Disney trades with a forward P/E ratio of about 17.66.

    (click to enlarge)

    DIS data by YCharts

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: DIS, earnings
    May 06 4:18 PM | Link | Comment!
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