Seeking Alpha

David Sobek

 
View as an RSS Feed
View David Sobek's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why Endocyte's Small Molecule Drug Conjugates + Imaging Platform Is Undervalued [View article]
    drmike1000,
    Are you really critiquing the company because they have not cured cancer? If curing cancer were the hurdle then nothing in oncology would be worth an investment. Vintafolide is a significant improvement over currently available chemotherapies for PROC.

    If you are looking for cancer cures before investing in an oncology company then you will be disappointed.
    Jun 27 09:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trius: Establishing A Compelling Case For Tedizolid [View article]
    Yes. Tedizolid is active against linezolid resistance strains. I wrote on that while back. You can check it out here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 5 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trius: Establishing A Compelling Case For Tedizolid [View article]
    Thanks. I think you could make a base case assumption of $400-$500M in peak sales and that would leave room for upside as well. Even with those sales, TSRX is undervalued.
    Mar 5 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trius: Establishing A Compelling Case For Tedizolid [View article]
    FDA generally requires two trials for approval. Antimicrobial stewardship is good in that they need new antibiotics. The antibiotics market itself is very large.
    Mar 5 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm: What Are The Odds Of The Control Group Outperforming? [View article]
    Right, which is why I look at a range of different studies to see which are most similar to what PICASSO III looks like. Obviously no apples to apples but if the vast bulk are saying less than (or around) 5 months, then I'll go with that as my base case. Plus, there is a margin of error to where even a 5.5 month median PFS for dox would be fine, although that would be getting too close for comfort.

    I'm sorry but I know the bear case about the stabilization of pali not being good but it seems like a tempest in a teapot.
    Feb 21 12:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm: What Are The Odds Of The Control Group Outperforming? [View article]
    Even excluding the PICASSO II the vast experience with dox in STS is a median PFS of around 5 months. There are certainly exceptions but it is what it is. You might want to not believe it but a dox median PFS significantly over 5, let alone six is rare. Not impossible but rare. I'd rather invest on most likely scenarios not least likely.

    IFOS is an old drug but your reference is really meaningless. IPM had been prepared before but not stabilized. You seem to know enough about there area to also know that.
    Feb 21 11:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm: What Are The Odds Of The Control Group Outperforming? [View article]
    Keep in mind that 2 of the 3 studies I look at are double blind, so you first point is just not accurate.

    Yes, if you simply cherry pick the Maurel study you can get to over 6 months median PFS but it is not an apple to apple comparison and it also ignores all the other studies that have median PFS much lower than that, so I would prefer not to cherry pick a study to support a view but look at the entirety of the data.

    I think the switch to TRIS was because it was more stable but I'd have to go back and double check that.

    FRR is a rule of thumb and not a law.
    Feb 21 10:03 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm: What Are The Odds Of The Control Group Outperforming? [View article]
    Pali should be better than IFOS. It is not only the side effects but IFOS is metabolized in a more variable manner than pali. So you get more consistency in the dose with pali than you would see with IFOS.
    Feb 21 09:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm: What Are The Odds Of The Control Group Outperforming? [View article]
    My impression of the CLSN analyses was that they did not really present a good model of the control group (as there was really not enough data to make that kind of analysis). Plus, the bigger problem with CLSN was that its mechanism of action was not targeting the cause of progression. That is not the case with ZIOP.
    Feb 21 09:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of Off-Label Use Of Zyvox And Its Import For Trius And Tedizolid [View article]
    Glad to hear it worked out well. The problem is not when Zyvox is used within the guidelines (under 28 days), which is what you seemed to experience. The problem is long term use (months instead of weeks).
    Jan 10 10:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trius Therapeutics: Tedizolid's Potential Commercial Paths [View article]
    You bring up and interesting point and one I thought about noting in the article. Vancomycin has the largest share of the prescription market but by sales Zyvox is king. What we don't know is how TZD would do in a market with a generic Zyvox. I think it will be fine and still see a slow and steady rise of revnue but I've not gathered enough data yet to provide any meat onto that statement. Hopefully soon.
    Dec 5 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trius Therapeutics: Tedizolid's Potential Commercial Paths [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I'm actually working now on the questions you are asking, i.e. why are these drugs having different launches and what can we glean from that in terms of TZD.
    Dec 5 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trius Therapeutics: Tedizolid's Potential Commercial Paths [View article]
    Thanks for the comment and what you say is accurate but misses the point of my analysis. There are a lot of good analysis that uses the method you describe to get at an estimate. While those are good, I think there is something to learn about antibiotic launches in general (even those less similar to TZD). Despite the drugs that I look like being quite different, the model still explains 97%+ of the variation. That is pretty good. In the model fit was not nearly as good, then it would point to these drugs being too different.

    So this was not meant to be THE way to look at TZD but a different way. When looking at a drug or company I find it useful to use a number of different methods to value it. If they converge around the same value, then you get more confidence. Relying on one way I find risks tunnel vision.

    So that is a long winded way of saying you are right to a certain extent but looking at a broader set of drugs is adding useful information. Best.
    Dec 5 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Prospects Of Endocyte [View article]
    Nice buy. I think you buy ECYT on dips, sell covered calls on rips, and hold shares long term.
    Oct 12 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelixis: Uncovering Value [View article]
    Thanks. I think the collaboration speaks to the broad activity of Cabo, which simply reinforces my view that it will work in mCRPC. We know it works in MTC. We shall see more evidence of activity in mCRPC at ASCO. With the NCI-CTEP we should see activity in additional cancers as well.
    May 9 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
27 Comments
26 Likes