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David Stafford
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Student of markets, enjoys following their course.
My book:
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  • Friday Fancies; Everyone Loves Raify.

    Today's Friday Fancy is perhaps a little more brief than usual, but in looking at some stocks recently, I noticed that one of our old friends mentioned in previous posts had taken a dip recently(10.5 to 7.9 to 8.25$).

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    Raiffeisen bank(Raify), an Austrian bank, with a strong presence in Eastern Europe in general, is sort of on a slight upswing, but might have more room to grow. Now that Nato per se, and hence Austria et al. have taken a firmer grip of Eastern Europe per se, one might presume that more Euro-based banks might have a little more headroom per se, in the region, particularly if the unfortunate situation in the region, becomes anymore sort of faction oriented per se(Nato vs. not Nato).

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    "Raify" also(according to Google finance, which at times can be "squirrelly" in regards to changing yield values) has a yield of about 5-6% so its perhaps decent per se. RAIFY has a potentially confusingly similar sounding pseudo-doppelgänger RAIFF(Raiffeisen Bank Intl. as opposed to RAIFY being associated with "Raiffeisenbank" from what I understand) which is over 30$ per share as opposed to RAIFY's 8~$ or so, and which has an indeterminate yield if any according to Google finance.

    Google finance link for Raify;

    www.google.com/finance?q=OTCMKTS%3ARAIFY...

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    For a quick look at the Eastern European emphasis of RAIFY and Raiffeisen in general, one may look at the listing of markets in which the bank operates here; www.rb.cz/en/information-service/raiffei.../ to see that it operates in most of Eastern Europe and in its home base in Austria as well per se.

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    (list from aforementioned link)

    AlbaniaRaiffeisen Bank Sh.a.
    BelarusPriorbank, OAO
    Bosnia and HerzegovinaRaiffeisen Bank d.d. Bosna i Hercegovina
    BulgariaRaiffeisenbank (Bulgaria) EAD
    Czech RepublicRaiffeisenbank a.s.
    CroatiaRaiffeisenbank Austria d.d.
    KosovoRaiffeisen Bank Kosovo S.A.
    HungaryRaiffeisen Bank Zrt.
    PolandRaiffeisen Bank Polska S.A.
    RomaniaRaiffeisen Bank S.A.
    RussiaZAO Raiffeisenbank
    SlovakiaTatra banka, a.s.
    SloveniaRaiffeisen banka d.d.
    SerbiaRaiffeisenbank a.d.
    UkraineVAT Raiffeisen Bank Aval

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    On another note, though Austria along with Germany was perhaps dealt a semi-mortal blow in their defeat in WWI its perhaps somewhat interesting to see their less militaristic national appendages in the form of banks slowly expanding into former abodes per se, perhaps this is a sort of grace of the modern age, but perhaps who can say.

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    Either way, perhaps if one wants a little more Austrian exposure than simply Raify one can always turn to the interesting manufacturing/finance/consumer staples ETF of Austria namely "EWO"(yield of 4.75%). If one wants a semi-decent yielding bit of Eastern Europe however, if one thinks its a good time to glance into said semi-troubled region, then Raify may be a satisfying Friday Fancy per se. In any case, I hope everyone's investing is going great, thank you very much for reading.

    Google finance link for EWO;

    www.google.com/finance?q=ewo&ei=RQit...

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    Without further adieu, another scene from the seemingly, and hopefully, inexhaustible library of Uncle Scrooge images available on the internet;

    source; www.covernk.com/Covers/L/U

    /Uncle%20Scrooge/UncleScrooge19.jpg

    Jun 27 2:55 AM | Link | Comment!
  • "Frontier" Economy Update; Kazakhstan And AZIA.

    The fabled land of Borat, whose international athletes sometimes have the misfortune per se of having the Borat-related national anthem played at medals ceremonies at competitions, has released some new regulations for corporations per se in the country, presumably intent on expanding foreign investment in the country.

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    national anthem mixup; www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou3lW32EXL0

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    According to ye old Moscow Times, Kazkhstan has dropped taxes for foreign investors in regards to their investments into the countries economy per se. It seems there's a little bit of fine print however, namely in that this doesn't really affect energy investments, for presumably this is what they are trying to diversify their economy away from per se.

    story; www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/...

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    Hence one may be wondering how one might invest in Kazakhstan. Well that's what I was wondering anyway, so without going through some sort of specialist private equity firm, or some government minister there per se, one might also look into, if one so desires, the "Global X Central Asia and Mongolia ETF"(NYSEARCA:AZIA).

    Morningstar; portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings...

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    From what our good friends at Morningstar have deduced it seems as though AZIA is sort of like GUR, if one may recall, namely in that a lot of it is sort of "investment by proxy" per se, so there's a decent number of UK and Canada based companies in there, if one will. Apart from this there are also investments which are in the Kazakh energy space in there so that may be somewhat problematic per se, in so far as taking advantage of these new tax regulations is concerned. However, there may be some redemption for AZIA in this case in that its second largest holding at roughly ~9-10% is in a Kazakh bank, so presumably that might be positively affected by this whole new regulation scheme per se.

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    Apart from that, perhaps there are as always interesting observations to be made or gleemed, from a regional ETF like this. As might be presumed, some Mongolian investments in particular are sort of approached through Chinese firms(somewhat long-established established economic connections between Mongolia and China; for example Coal extraction/transport/somewhat recently refining, related industries).

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    Brief sidenote; Mongolia's "richest man" made his fortune through coal mining and other types of mining for example; investing.businessweek.com/research/stoc...

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    In addition to the Chinese connection per se, there seems to be a general trend whereby there is a significant presence of UK based energy sector companies, and Canada based mining companies in this ETF, aswell. There is also a Sweden based communications related firm; "TeliaSonera AB" thrown in there at ~4.5-5% portfolio weighting, for good measure presumably.

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    Apart from the varied nationalities represented per se by the holdings of this ETF, it seems to be quite uncorrelated in general, to the greater MSCI index, while bearing stronger correlation to "diversified emerging market" indices. It also yielded about .35$ in dividends over the past year(came into existence last year per se) so its yield if measured by today's price would be about 2.2-.26% presumably. It also doesn't have a tremendously large total assets figure, and so who knows how large transactions per se, may lead to price volatility per se(the off chance). It's about 62% institutionally owned as well so perhaps that remaining .38 or so could potentially be used to pivot it around if concentrated in a few hands per se, but who can say for sure.

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    Either way perhaps its not an everyday occurrence to see Kazakhstan in the news per se, so perhaps that's always welcome. Kazakhstani holdings or not, I hope everybody's portfolio is doing great, and thanks again for reading.

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    Kazakh flag;

    source; ak.picdn.net/shutterstock/videos/326257/...

    Tags: AZIA
    Jun 15 11:40 PM | Link | Comment!
  • New Formulas For Valuing "Environmental Resources" Derived.

    Thought it seems to have been in the works for a bit per se, there seems to be a new formula or series of formulas for deriving the value of environmental goods like fish stocks for example.

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    A "rundown" of this can be found at the following link;

    www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/14...

    (author's of said research papers are; Eli Fenichel and Joshua Abbott)

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    For a more complete perspective one can find lots of the papers that led up to the final conclusions per se online by searching for; "Natural Capital; from metaphor to measurement" on Google for example.

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    For the equation its self if one clicks the first link that comes up on Google search per se; for me this was the ncsu.edu link; one can find sort of the meat and potatoes per se of the calculations beginning at the bottom of page 5 or 6 onwards if one want to skip ahead, where one can see the rationale behind the sort of variables used and the interactions amongst them that are similarly presumed/assumed.

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    As a brief recap the equation seems to take into account the following;

    -natural growth rates of the resource--might think of it as (g)

    -the way that human behavior degrades or enhances said resource over time--might think of it as a sort of potentially invertible(according to normal variable associated logic (r))

    -als interestingly enough the "social capital" attached to the resource

    -and like most equations for finance per se, some relation between the above and a period of time(at times in an NPV like "lump sum" format.

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    In addition to this the equation is pretty cool and seems to draw on some often seen financial variables or modifiers per se, namely the "e to the -t" which one sees in option pricing etc. Also the t its self is sort of modified, so that perhaps is also similar to some financial equation elements one may come across in the valuing of future prices/values based on volatility over time per se, here that volatility being represented by perhaps growth vs. human impact roughly speaking.

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    Either way its kind of a cool paper, and personally I think its really great that the researchers in question did this, because now perhaps we can have more realistic approaches to environmental resource management per se, perhaps both via regulation and via the courts per se.

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    This may perhaps be as good for governments and investors, as it is for investment companies, for presumably now lawsuits against them wouldn't just be a sort of very rough if not sort of romantic figure per se, which seems to be the current logic. For example the BP oil spill being catastrophic and still affecting the gulf-coast, seemed to command a price tag of 10 billion USD plus, what was that based on? Well presumably sentimental responses to outrage and the stories of oil covered pelicans etc., which though tragic of course, are perhaps not a good representation of a somewhat-precise valuation metric per se.(admittedly also probably took into account salaries of displaced fishermen, historic cost per square mile for cleanup etc. but presumably the sort of rough representation of the temporary human response to the tragedy was a fundamental sort of constant or under-girding of said equation as-well)

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    Either way, perhaps it'll be really cool when someone puts together some massive spreadsheet or series of spreadsheets or programs to sort of deduce the currency denominated value of the world's natural resources; perhaps we will be surprised by the value around that societies have at various times sort of taken for granted per se. Perhaps it will also be easier to convince third world countries to improve hospitality/conservation efforts when they have a sort of somewhat hard-figure in front of them, which is what is often presented in the case of natural resource extraction etc. Perhaps this will also make it easier to find compromises, where one can find sort of ideal opportunity costs etc, so that resource extraction and nature conservation can work together better per se.

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    Either way surely a bunch of fish, gorillas, and natural resource investors out there somewhere have a reason to smile today, and hopefully everyone's investments are producing similar responses per se. Thank again for reading, happy weekend per se.

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    -as a side note I would link the paper directly but the text of the paper requests that one contact the authors before doing so, so I don't know how long that would take so, the search suggested above should yield similar results per se :) .

    (click to enlarge)

    source; leonie101.edublogs.org/files/2009/07/leo...

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    source; 37.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m92a8p9kUs1qz...

    Jun 14 10:38 AM | Link | Comment!
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