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David Stafford
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Student of markets, enjoys following their course.
My book:
Around the World in Several Pieces
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  • Friday Fancies(FPO,FIW,CFWAX)

    It may be a very very premarket call per se, but there a few end of the week stocks that are looking relatively interesting and decent per se, now at the "wee hours" of the morning(on the east coast.)

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    Amongst these are some water stocks. It may be that time where one's portfolio is looking pretty good. It may have a lot of un-correlated, at least from a purist sense per se(money supply in general, may effect "correlation" as recent history has shown), investments in it, but maybe there's room for water. If one looks over the holdings of an etf like FIW, many of the names may strikes ones self as unfamiliar perhaps. A lot of these stocks are kind of niche, and perhaps interestingly niche at that. Water is like farmland in my opinion at least, an interesting "play" for the future. The sort of use of the stock market as a sort of non-traditional almost money market account as of late has perhaps fueled some not so fundamental "growth" as of late depending on whom one asks, but water and land(farm land) may always sort of be valuable as long we have ever increasing numbers of people on the planet, or even a stable population with increasing standards of living, and the mass-dietary changes that this tends to correlate to(more meat, exotic stuff etc.) Either way water has surprisingly been sort of "killing it" as of late. If one looks at the past history of the mutual fund from Calvert Investments(CFWAX), and the history of FIW, one may notice that their returns aren't too shabby as of late. I'm not a really a big fan of buying into that sort of price data pattern per se, because well, one is in a sense fighting gravity, profit taking, whatever one wants to call it, but the water service industry may be valued at an ever increasing premium in the future per se, and perhaps its always good to add a little of the bubbly or non-bubbly variety in one's portfolio for at least the beta exposure per se. As a side note their yields are still below conservative estimates of inflation, but.... hey, maybe price appreciation/growth can overcome that(as it has previously.)

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    The second or third play perhaps of this Friday is FPO. FPO is a decent yielding REIT, at about ~4.5% or so, and its focused on the DC area. DC seems to be ever expanding as of late, perhaps due to the voracity and unabated flow of capital into the region, and its of course corollary diffusion throughout said same region. FPO has taken a good knock or two as of late and is a little worse for wares per se. According to at least one metric, analyst estimates, FPO is undervalued per se, and perhaps this pick is more in line with the blossoming tradition of picking the guys that took a beating at least somewhat earlier in the week as a decent "friday pick".

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    Friday picks of course would not be complete without some image of "Scrooge" to cap off the article or at least punctuate it per se, so here he is;

    source;http://www.thinkalytic.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Uncle-scrooge.jpeg

    (click to enlarge)

    May everyone be as merry with one's investments as Scrooge is in this image, and may things be going well, one way or another. Thank you for reading.

    Tags: FPO, FIW
    Feb 28 2:07 AM | Link | Comment!
  • "Falling With Style"; The "End Of History" Revisited.

    Over the past decade or so, we've had this sort of intellectual gestalt, particularly in the west whereby, all "national level"-social-paradigm-based-decisions at this point are essentially futile on a state-level. The empire has reached its pinnacle, and with it, human history, and the rest is just technological improvements from here on out. You can perhaps sense this in titles such as "The end of History"(not really the title of the piece but...), "Clash of Civilization"(painting the "west" as one definitive ironed-out civilization(culture) per se, "the world is flat"(one culture only technological differences) etc. etc. However, what these commentators perhaps haven't truly grasped perhaps is that, there are more ways to go than "up" per se. Waves don't just extend upward into infinity, at least most naturally occurring waves, instead they have a sinusoidal pattern, for a crest, there is also to a certain extent a paired trough etc. etc.

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    The reason that perhaps what is happening now(post-colonial-national-redefinition) is so surprising to the US(fearful(sort of dramatic) in a sense posturing over various issues) is because perhaps being the nation on the pinnacle of this most recent crest of civilization has left us, not remembering what it is to have to deal with the nitty-gritty per se of international, human movements of various sorts, instead preferring the simple, monolithic discussions that perhaps partially framed the nation's ascent to greatness.

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    Other nation's national voice rising(giving the US the sense of falling by relation per se), coupled with our own sort of economic denial and reality based structural failings pe rse, has perhaps also given us the sense of "falling" in and of ourselves aswell.

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    However, perhaps its not that the US and other former great powers are really falling(Russia losing Ukraine etc.) in so much, as the little countries are rising. It seems as though the general mood of the world per se, was entertained by the rising "emerging market" economies, but perhaps didn't really take them too seriously. They were just vessels for new yield seeking per se, and perhaps at times its easy to get caught up in the excitement of it all per se, and to lose site of the real implication of the "hopes and dreams" of the citizenry of those countries, regardless of their yield potential per se, as one may see things from an investment based paradigm.

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    However, it seems that now, this is perhaps "their age". With huge gatekeepers sort of rolled out of the way, these old sort of "elite fetishes" are sort of a thing of the past. Many great empires and nations operated on these sorts of "elite biases" one could say. Some Austro-Hungarian emperors, were religiously "slavophobic", the US has had its own sort of bone to pick with "communism" as its been seen, or perhaps more appropriately coined "stalinism" I believe one could argue, but either way, that's perhaps not to the point. Either way, even with terrorism of various ilks, being this latest sort of "elite dream", of the modern world, perhaps surprisingly(at least from an elite paradigm), technology its self is perhaps shifting the view of these fetishes, this sort of mentality, into sort of ridiculousness perhaps.

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    With the rise of the sort of "human" that the internet and who knows what else, has ushered in, and the sort of waiting period, for the releasing of the cold-war-fatalistic-death-grip to be relaxed or complete per se, we're perhaps now moving into a period, that was maybe, somewhat stifled by the proxy-battles of the "cold war", and now we're reaching an equilibrium in places which before, did not have specific unique equilibriums themselves per se. Namely, we're finding national voice, and national identities, that needed to be sorted out eventually anyway per se.

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    Hence, perhaps history is not over. Perhaps these sorts of musings were the product of the incomplete perspective lent to thinkers by the sort of sky high acceleration that the US, and other "elite" countries were experiencing at the time. However, now that this ride is over per se, perhaps history continues. Now however, the very abstract per se, is perhaps giving way to the somewhat less abstract. Messianic pan-national movements against cause x, y, or z, are giving way to more specific movements about national identities in countries such as those in the "Arab world", and in Asia, and in Eastern Europe, and even partially in Africa as we're seeing now, with cultural conversations per se, with Islamism in Mali, and re-sorting out what Libya is all about etc etc.

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    Hence, perhaps history is not over, but its just becoming a touch less existential. Perhaps the sort of Kissinger era national policy, with big players, and little players, has been put on hold, with the big players being down with a very severe fever per se, and now the rest of the world, slowly spreading its fronds amongst the ash, that these great "elephant battles" left on them, these great fights, which as some African tribesman will tell you, that only cause suffering to the grass(cliche I know.) Either way, perhaps its not just this most recent period, but perhaps going forward, we may guess that the focus of the newer perhaps .5 centuries at least, will be on emerging market national redefinition per se. Perhaps the West, will be interesting to watch as well, if not at least more dramatic at times(elites from said country).

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    The non-super power countries, will of course perhaps be interesting because perhaps that's where the real "meat and potatoes" sort of events of the world will be unfolding, however the former super-powers will surely provide for "Pagliaci" -esque moments from time to time. For certainly those in power in these countries will still hold tight to dreams of lordship per se, and will occasionally try to "lend a hand" in a dramatic fashion to some conflict or another. Perhaps the most recent example of this is J. Kerry being rebuked as a sort of "meddler" and "messianic" by an Israeli minister. Perhaps these sorts of moments will continue to appear as the old guard occasionally has dreams of those days "when we were young", and were the great lord of the land, lol. Anyway, now that the younger countries are taking center stage, this should be a really interesting time for the world.

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    Presumably we'll start to see more economic opportunities, and investment opportunities occurring in "emerging market" economies, once their own dust settles from the identity/society formation process per se. We should also perhaps begin to see more ideologically( local, social cause) based perspectives for investment opening up in the developed world as well. Just as the emerging markets will be defining themselves from the inside out per se, perhaps the US and Russia and whatnot will also experience this.

    ______________________________________________________ The US has traditionally arguably been controlled/defined by large corporations/individuals, Russia by the state. Now that these two bodies are blundering(financial crises, self-reflection forced upon Russian society by world's response to government enforced ethics etc., R's own economic failings) perhaps we'll start to see people in these states, also begin to work more on more localized based paradigms per se, and less nationalistic based paradigms. Perhaps in the US we can already see this in the increasing lack or interest in foreign wars, and also a growing sort of interest in the local(produce, laws(marijuana laws) etc.).

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    Hence perhaps ironically the citizens of superpowers, may be turning away from the international stage to greater degrees than they already are, just like those citizens from emerging markets, effectively turning inwards. Presumably this will spur growth in niche, local internet programs(to an extent, perhaps examples like AOL's patch was too local at first), and also perhaps smaller sorts of organizations that operate on more individual or local levels.

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    Either way perhaps this is sort of like a prodigal son moment for the world. Its no longer enough for small countries to base their identities on old empires, and perhaps even the citizens of superpowers, will not be satisfied with dreams of reaching across the world to spread ideology this that or the other anymore either. Perhaps it will continue to be an age where the community level of organization is strengthened.

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    Arguably all naturally processes share similar patterns and hence perhaps in likening this to something, we can liken it to the birth of complex molecules from the bellowing "innards" of "dying"/condensing stars. All stars are usually pretty simple in their molecular make up, the tend to grow at a point as well, originally all stars were bright blue giant masses of gas supposedly. In time they've broken down and formed little(by comparison) local star-systems with planets spinning around stars or perhaps all spinning around black holes or whatever. As large stars get too big per se, or at least get to a size where they can't completely engage in enough nuclear reactions to keep stable or growing per se, they sort of flare out occasionally, all the whilst shrinking in on themselves.

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    The pressure at the center of these stars is enormous. Though they are growing due to the massive amounts of energy they keep releasing, they have gotten too massive in a sense, and the laws of gravity take over. In this expansion and collapsing dance, like an accordion, these stars emit beams of particles of more complex natures than their own makeup(hydrogen etc.) hence from these giant monoliths per se, we get many shades of grey, many little instances of complexity creation per se, birthed from these once massive, and simple(relatively speaking) bodies of gas.

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    Hence perhaps in the future, we will begin to see more complexity birthed from the monoliths of cold-wars age satellite state policies, and also perhaps within "super-power" societies themselves, with complexities of previous ages also being revisited here. Either way, its perhaps going to be an interesting age going forward, and perhaps it will be good for investment of a smaller scale in general.

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    Hopefully everyone's investments are going great.

    Thanks for reading.

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    Also as a side note, it looks like Mari-Gras is coming up on the 4th of March, so if anyone is into that I hope they have a great time.

    source; http://carlvonluger.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/mardi-gras.jpg

    (click to enlarge)http://carlvonluger.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/mardi-gras.jpg

    Feb 27 11:39 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Friday Snapshot,

    Well, its that special time of the week or whatever period per se. Its Friday, and perhaps one has some loose change or whatnot per se burning a hole in one's pocket.

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    Source; http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rLV-ZuNPwJ4/SWFUy9X9KcI/AAAAAAAADME/

    YVoy3bBRQt4/s400/Uncle_Scrooge_cscan_15_01.JPG

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rLV-ZuNPwJ4/SWFUy9X9KcI/AAAAAAAADME/YVoy3bBRQt4/s400/Uncle_Scrooge_cscan_15_01.JPG

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    If this is the case, then I've done a quick perusal of some favorite high yielders per se, and come across the following; though much of the market is up per se, one high yielder in particular stands out; NRP. NRP has been taking an awful beating per se, as of late, and various sources have it listed as oversold. It isn't a favorite of mine too much, but it is interesting. It supposedly leases resource rights per se, its perhaps a sort of interesting business model per se. Either way, its down for the day around 2% as of this post, and it's been down quite a bit relative to average prices per se for a longer term period per se as can be seen from the following yahoo finance graph of it's price data;

    (click to enlarge)

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    Either way, if someone's looking for a quick dump off of some cash per se, this might be a decent candidate. However, the phrase "don't try to catch a falling knife" occurs to me, but this knife has fallen pretty far already it seems, and its already slightly rebounding off of intraday lows. Either way, if one is looking for a down and out high yielder for a quick purchase, this looks like a potentially interesting candidate, at least from a quick glance per se.

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    I hope everyone's investing is going great, NRP or not, and that soon we will all be swimming in returns like the aforementioned cartoon character. If not, surely there's more to life than returns, regardless of scrooge's fantasies per se, and surely NRP is looking a bit rough as of late.

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    Thanks again for reading.

    Tags: NRP
    Feb 21 12:58 PM | Link | 3 Comments
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