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David Stafford
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Student of markets, enjoys following their course.
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  • Rehashing The "Stress Test" Of The Football Prediction Model Discussed Earlier Via The 2014 Superbowl.

    The methodology or variable weighting per se, that was discussed in an earlier post was perhaps somewhat vindicated by this most recent of Superbowls per se.

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    With a little bit of research, it was possible to come up with the following perspectives on both sides strengths and weaknesses.

    (via the following sources)

    Seahawks O vs Broncos D;

    http://www.milehighreport.com/2014/1/27/5350144/super-bowl-2014-seahawks-offensive-line-vs-broncos-defensive-line/in/5115765

    Seahawks D vs Boncos O;

    http://www.milehighreport.com/2014/1/27/5350144/super-bowl-2014-seahawks-offensive-line-vs-broncos-defensive-line

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    From these reports we could see that the Broncos were preferred in so far as their ability to "run up the middle" per se was concerned, while there we doubts as to whether they might be able to contain outside to immediately off of the line offensive plays by the Seahawks per se.

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    Commentators per se chose the Broncos over the Seahawks for a variety of factors. One is perhaps this belief that being able to make short yardage consistently with "up the middle runs" was valuable, while simultaneously citing that the Seahawks had yet to play a lot of really strong teams per se like the Broncos.

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    This is valuable perhaps in so far as that this other-consensus building perspective may allow others using the methodology discussed earlier to receive higher yield, as in more skewed odds if this approach runs counter to the "dominant narratives" concerning the prediction of football games.

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    This game would have been a Seahawks victory based on the aforementioned variable weightings per se, because the outside, quick short pass offense per se was seen as more valuable according to the methodology discussed earlier as opposed to the "short run game" which was discussed as being almost negative per se according to the insights gone over earlier.

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    Perhaps this can all be summarized in the strength of a "west-cost-offense" per se, and the sagacity of coaches who can build them into their team effectively per se, or perhaps its just another random toss up, as any situation involving unknown variables can at times turn out to be.

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    Either way, hopefully everyone got what they wanted out of the game perse, and certainly even though the Broncos per se lost, they were clearly a good football team to have been contenders, in the Superbowl. So, perhaps the Superbowl is a game unlike other football games, where essentially presence may mean a certain sort of victory to a certain extent, and surely both teams and their various auxiliary staff etc tried hard to get to where they were, and presumably profited mightily from the experience in one way or another.

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    Thanks again for reading, and hopefully this football-outcome modeling per se has been fun for others aswell, and perhaps this model should be further tested in the future with periodic updates per se, before games since its perhaps always easy to come in after the fact per se.

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    Further notes from the game's "play-by-play" that support aformetioned approach to football-game-prediction.;

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    Seattle only really began emphasizing the running game in the third-quarter, arguably to waste time, that first run-emphatic series resulted in a "punt",or giving up of possion per se;

    source;

    http://www.mmamania.com/2014/2/2/5363196/broncos-vs-seahawks-super-bowl-score-2014-live-play-by-play-updates-results-3rd-quarter-nfl

    Seattle ball at their own 8 yard line.

    1st and 10: Marshawn Lynch cut back up the field for a big gain of 18 yards.
    1st and 10: Lynch ran into a Denver linebacker after no gain to the left side.
    2nd and 10: A play-action pass turned into a Russell Wilson scramble for a long gain but the play was nullified by a holding penalty on Seattle. That's 10 yards in the other direction.
    2nd and 20: Robert Turbin came in at running back and got a carry, crashing up the middle for a gain of three.
    3rd and 17: A quick screen out to Golden Tate went for no gain to force a punt.
    4th and 17: The punt was a line driver picked up by Eric Decker, who gained some positive yardage.

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    Though Denver as early as the second quarter started pulling away from a run-centric approach, the final realization that this was a non-yielding method of play finally came to fruition in the 3rd quarter in which their only touchdown was the culmination of several short passes as described below(same source);("Seattle is giving up little chunks of yards")(to short passes)

    Denver - 0
    Seattle - 36

    The kickoff was a touchback.

    Denver ball on their own 20 yard line.

    1st and 10: Manning found Ball out of the backfield but there was a penalty for holding. No play, 10 yard loss.
    1st and 20: Welker caught a short pass over the middle and took a big shot after a gain of just three.
    2nd and 17: J. Thomas caught a pass to get across the 20 yard line for a gain of eight yards.
    3rd and 9: Manning went downfield but couldn't complete the pass to D. Thomas. The reason? He was being interfered with and the referees made the call to give Denver the first down.
    1st and 10: Welker picked up a first down with an inside hit near mid-field.
    1st and 10: Another short pass over the middle leads to 11 more yards and a first down. Seattle is giving up the little chunks of yards.
    1st and 10: Manning took a shot down the field and found Welker, again over the middle, and he got out of bounds after 22 yards inside the 15 yard line.
    1st and 10: Manning found D. Thomas in the end zone for a touchdown. There goes the shutout. The two-point conversion attempt was successful.

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    Its kind of clear from the play-by-play at this point that Denver is somewhat demoralized from series of "tackle-breaking"-runs in the first 3 quarters and that perhaps plays after this point may not reflect "normal", or "ideal" settings via which to continue to asses the efficacy of the modeling-approach.

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    Play-by-Play sources;

    1st Quarter;

    http://www.mmamania.com/2014/2/2/5363188/broncos-vs-seahawks-super-bowl-score-2014-live-play-by-play-updates-results-1st-quarter-nfl

    2nd Quarter;

    http://www.mmamania.com/2014/2/2/5363194/broncos-vs-seahawks-super-bowl-score-2014-live-play-by-play-updates-results-2nd-quarter-nfl

    3rd Quarter;

    http://www.mmamania.com/2014/2/2/5363196/broncos-vs-seahawks-super-bowl-score-2014-live-play-by-play-updates-results-3rd-quarter-nfl

    4th Quarter;

    http://www.mmamania.com/2014/2/2/5363198/broncos-vs-seahawks-super-bowl-score-2014-live-play-by-play-updates-results-4th-quarter-nfl

    Feb 02 11:53 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Introduction To The Caucus Investment Space And A Macro Perspective.

    The Caucuses are seemingly not the easiest markets to penetrate. It would perhaps be cliche to mention some piece of literature like "Heart of Darkness", by Snr. Conrad, however, perhaps it would be more apropos to liken the Caucus investment situation for your average investor to studying the "Yeti".

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    There are presumably no wikipedia articles on the anatomy, favorite foods etc of Yetis. Instead if one wants to do so, one must study for example, native American mythology etc. etc., in so many words, one must assume a different tac per se than usual.

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    Hence, in beginning our Circassian Yeti expedition, it is perhaps best that we start at from a unique approach relative to some of the other approaches previously used or cited in the research that's been done on the blog.

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    Searching for investments in the Caucuses will often turn up IMF or some other sort of non-commercial-bank per se, reference to an expo or something of the like on investing in the region. A green job expo, an elevator expo even, there are all sorts of expos that are held in the region, perhaps like any other. However, something as simple, as "GUR", for the Eastern European which gave us our first "base-camp" into Eastern European economies, is sorely lacking.

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    Hence, without further adieu, it may be sage to share what I've come across so far, and perhaps to continue to do so, as the opportunity arises.

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    For starters, we have at least stock-markets in the region. For example, there is an Azerbaijani stock exchange located in Baku, as well a Georgian stock exchange. There is also an Armenian stock exchange, which we might count as a Caucasian investment portal.

    For Dagestan, a region of Russia per se, which is the hometown of the Boston-Marathon related individuals, we also have a few stocks listed on the Russian stock exchange.

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    Sites/Sources;

    Georgian Stock Exchange;

    http://www.gse.ge/

    Baku(Azerbaijan) Stock Exchange;

    http://www.bfb.az/?lang=en

    Armenian Stock Exchange;

    http://www.nasdaqomx.am/en/index.htm

    Dagestani commercial entities listed on the Russian Stock Exchange;

    http://corprussia.com/okved/671200/region/5

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    Apart from that perhaps one could say that it is somewhat vague, but that oil, and the important of Azerbaijan in so far as oil pipeline and shipping routes is concerned is somewhat significant in so far as larger countries in the region are concerned, namely China and Russia. For, pipelines though the Caucuses could help Russia have another route into Europe as can kind of be seen from this image;

    (click to enlarge)

    source;

    http://www.rzeczpospolita.pl/teksty/wydanie_060904/swiat_a_1-1.F.jpg

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    China could benefit from oil flowing through baku as well as can be seen from the following image which has Azerbaijan, appearing as a sliver on the left side of the map. For, Azerbaijan is just across the Caspian from Kazakhstan and Turkemenistan, and China is a big fan of running pipelines through Kazakhstan, and perhaps ultimately in the future, pipelines may link the Gulf nations and their resources directly to China via pipelines, hence unless these pipelines are run through Iraq etc., they may be conveniently run indirectly per se through the Caucuses. How the Caucuses, and Azerbaijan's important in all of this is determined can perhaps be better seen through looking at this map which is albeit more concerning with the Stan's, but perhaps still a good source of perspective on the issue per se;

    source; http://www.sras.org/img/photo/pipeline_china_kz.jpg

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    perhaps this image is helpful too;

    (click to enlarge)

    source;

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/__FrAMUiShGU/TIvwGyP0moI/AAAAAAAAAFI/k7zbP1dX-Sk/s1600/Kazakhstan-China-pipeline.jpg

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    Hence though perhaps at first glance, the region's economy its self isn't so available per se, to strait-forward investments, the region may play a somewhat important role in the rest of Asia's energy situation per se. Perhaps over the course of future investigations more untold secrets of this region's investment space will be unlocked as well, but for now here's at least perhaps a somewhat interesting macro-perspective on the significance of this region geographically, along with some introductory investment related information concerning the stock markets for example, as discussed above.

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    Hopefully soon, we will come across some "Circassian" beauties per se, in the continued search for the Moby-dick of Caucasian investment, but for now we may perhaps at least have a somewhat more fleshed out perspective on the regions in general.

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    May everyone's investing be great, and positions "fattened" per se, and may we all sleep well knowing so.

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    Thanks again for reading.

    Jan 28 1:47 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Circassian Beta: The Journey

    Since it may be fair to say, that EWO, or the Austrian ETF per se, may be a fair, "undercover" yet efficient way to invest in what was once the "Austro-Hungarian", Turkish, and Russian empires. Let us now move on to the snow-cover peaks, and "wild-west" of Russia, namely the Caucasus.

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    The Caucasus, like Eastern Europe, were one divied up between several larger empires at one point in time. This topic perhaps even touches on the Sochi games to a certain extent, with many of the local tribesman from the Caucasus, and from the Sochi region in general, having at one time or another faced the brunt of a massive imperial onslaught, which interestingly enough, happened right about the same time period as our "Indian" wars per se, with similar sort of dynamics interestingly enough, being play.

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    Just as it took some revolutionary Military leaders in the US, like the almost forgotten(due to neutrality in the Civil War) William S. Harney "Prince of Dragoons", to overcome the nimble, and in some sense, superior tactics of the locals in the west per, it took the heavy handed, and unorthodox approach of the famous General Ermalov, "the Lion...." to overcome the scattered tribes, which were very much on their own home turf per se, for the Russians to come away with the win in Circassia, now the Caucasus.

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    In Russian literature, there is a sort of romancing of the Caucasus period, just as their is perhaps the sort of one time-mass appeal, of the Buffalo Bill Wild-West-Show, contemporaneously here in the US. Pushkin and Leromontov, captured, the fleeting lack of romance in the area with their various works like Leromontov's "A Hero of Our Time", and Pushkin's series of short stories which have a similar effect. If one is really interested, one can even note the change in timbre, per se concerning Russia's intrigue, and then disillusionment through chronologically reading works on the Caucasus per se in Russian literature. To cite a few; noting the sort of romancing of the "Circassian mystique"(somewhat romantic) in Pushkin's "captive of the Caucus", which turns into a, sort of discussion of not-so romantic realities of disposable allies, and romantic-nobility, cast aside by the progression of empire in Leo Tolstoy's "Hadji Murad". This literature its self is somewhat mysterious and beguiling, since Tolstoy seemingly wrote a book, after Pushkin with the same title; namely "captive of(or prisoner of) the Caucusus.

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    Needless to say, the Caucus have a sort of split history. Their tendency towards Islam in some cases, has at times lent them a certain sense of solidarity with the Turks, acknowledged by the Russians. At times, the Russian Imperial will has forced the area into the sort of Russian empire with the unstoppable vigor with which the Russians pursued complete ownership of the area, including tribe relocations and in so many word "Trails of Tears", just as the US was doing with the native in the west.

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    Either way, in a coming piece perhaps we should have the opportunity to delve further into this region, and perhaps to see if their are any good investments or proxies for "direct investment", one way or another coming away with a perhaps well studied taste for the regions financial cuisine per se.

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    Perhaps for the sake of simplicity, and geography per se, it would be wise to start with the countries of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, which are just about smack dab where the Caucus region is per se, and hopefully, we will find a way to get at that oh-so-mysterious "Circassian" aka Caucasian Beta per se, hopefully finding another unique marble per se, to through into our portfolio, to give our potential portfolios that extra bit of glimmer and shine, and resilience, in the face of whatever the financial markets may have to throw at them. Hopefully this will also allow our portfolios to be as strong as a "Circassian tribesman", while all the wilst being as seductive, as an oft(once upon a time) romanticized Circasssian beauty, and all together our portfolio's may be all the fractionally richer for it.

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    Perhaps hence as we unravel the mystique of the Circassian landscape, a few decent investment ideas may also come up, and potentially leave us the richer for our troubles per se.

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    I hope everyone's returns are as feroicias, as a band of cossacks, coupled with some dexterous Cirassian freedom fighters, and that all together everything is going well.

    Jan 16 6:36 PM | Link | Comment!
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