Seeking Alpha

David Trainer

 
View as an RSS Feed
View David Trainer's Articles BY TICKER:
  • Best And Worst All Cap Value Style ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings
    Fri, Sep. 12 LMT, MDR, PBFDX Comment!

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the All Cap Value Style.
    • Distribution of all All Cap Value Style ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Best And Worst All Cap Growth Style ETFs, Mutual Funds, And Key Holdings
    Thu, Sep. 11 CRM, IBM, IFPUX Comment!

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the All Cap Growth Style.
    • Distribution of all All Cap Growth Style ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Best And Worst All Cap Blend Style ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings
    Wed, Sep. 10 DGRW, EXT, ORCL 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the All Cap Blend Style.
    • Distribution of all All Cap Blend Style ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Best And Worst Utilities Sector ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings
    Tue, Sep. 9 AEE, ED, FUTY 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the Utilities Sector.
    • Distribution of all Utilities Sector ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Best And Worst Telecom Sector ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings
    Mon, Sep. 8 LTL, NSR, TDS 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the Telecom Sector.
    • Distribution of all Telecom Sector ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Danger Zone: Glu Mobile
    Mon, Sep. 8 GLUU 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Glu Mobile is a hot stock this year as hit games have drastically increased its revenue.
    • However, mobile gaming is a rapidly changing business, and Glu's success this year is no guarantee of positive results in the future.
    • GLUU's valuation implies unrealistically optimistic expectations of sustained growth and profitability.
  • Why Footnotes Matter
    Fri, Sep. 5 AA, CTL, DVN 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Every investor knows that performing due diligence is important before making an investment.
    • However, true diligence takes an astounding amount of work.
    • Investors who don't read the sometimes 200+ pages of footnotes can miss important information.
  • Best And Worst Materials Sector ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings
    Fri, Sep. 5 CF, FMAT, SEE 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the Materials Sector.
    • Distribution of all Materials Sector ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Best And Worst Health Care Sector ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings
    Thu, Sep. 4 IHI, LLY, PTH Comment!

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the Health Care Sector.
    • Distribution of all Health Care Sector ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Best And Worst Information Technology Sector ETFs, Mutual Funds, And Key Holdings
    Wed, Sep. 3 DOX, SWIR, TDIV 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the Information Technology Sector.
    • Distribution of all Information Technology Sector ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Best And Worst Financials Sector ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings
    Tue, Sep. 2 KBWI, KBWP, KIE Comment!

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the Financials Sector.
    • Distribution of all Financials Sector ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Big Value Opportunity In Liberty Tax
    Fri, Aug. 29 TAX Comment!

    Summary

    • Liberty Tax has comparable margins and return on invested capital to its larger competitors.
    • Despite its comparable profitability, Liberty Tax trades at a significant discount to its peers.
    • Increasing complexity in the tax code due to the Affordable Care Act and rapid growth in its online service are significant catalysts for profit growth.
  • Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds, And Key Holdings: Energy Sector
    Thu, Aug. 28 COP, CVI, GASL 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the Energy Sector.
    • Distribution of all Energy Sector ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Consumer Staples Sector
    Wed, Aug. 27 BG, CLX, FSTA 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the Consumer Staples sector.
    • Distribution of all Consumer Staples ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings: Consumer Discretionary Sector
    Mon, Aug. 25 ITB, JCP, PETM 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Lists of the Best and Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds in the Consumer Discretionary Sector.
    • Distribution of all Consumer Discretionary ETFs and Mutual Funds across our Predictive Rating Scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • How To Avoid The Worst Style ETFs
    Wed, Aug. 20 ALFA, LLY, LNG 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Avoiding the worst ETFs is just as important, and just as difficult, as identifying the best.
    • Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Investors need in-depth research into the holdings of ETFs.
    • ETFs with overvalued holdings and high expense ratios are at risk to drag on a portfolio.
  • How To Avoid The Worst Sector ETFs
    Tue, Aug. 19 BDN, FIDU, FSTA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Avoiding the worst ETFs is just as important, and just as difficult, as identifying the best.
    • Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Investors need in-depth research into the holdings of ETFs.
    • ETFs with overvalued holdings and high expense ratios are at risk to drag on a portfolio.
  • Update: PetSmart And Jana Partners
    Mon, Aug. 18 PETM 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Jana Partners filed a document with the SEC claiming to have received information from an anonymous source that PetSmart has been attempting to hide poor results from investors.
    • Due to the risks of holding a stock where activist investors are at odds with management, I am no longer recommending PetSmart long.
    • With the stock up 18% since my article in June, now is a good time to take profits.
  • Danger Zone: Price To Earnings Ratios
    Mon, Aug. 18 HE, LO, MSFT 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Due to their simplicity and ease of use, P/E ratios are among the most common valuation metrics in the world.
    • Accounting distortions and hidden liabilities make P/E ratios exceedingly unreliable as a determinant of valuation.
    • Economic earning are a much more significant driver of value.
  • How To Find The Best Style ETFs
    Fri, Aug. 15 DGRW, FTCS, IESM 6 Comments

    Summary

    • With so many ETFs to choose from, finding the best can be a daunting task.
    • You cannot trust ETF labels, only due diligence on the holdings allows an investor to understand an ETF.
    • Low costs and quality holdings, not past performance, is the best indicator of an ETF's future success.
  • Danger Zone: Newell Rubbermaid
    Thu, Aug. 14 NWL 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Newell Rubbermaid has overstated growth in accounting earnings.
    • Its competitors have superior capital efficiency.
    • NWL's valuation implies double digit profit growth going forward while profits have been stagnant over the past decade.
  • New Stocks Make Most Attractive/Dangerous Lists For August
    Wed, Aug. 13 ACIW, NSR, PETM Comment!

    Summary

    • 17 new stocks make our Most Attractive and Most Dangerous lists for August.
    • NetApp has improving returns on capital and a cheap valuation.
    • ACI Worldwide's acquisition driven earnings growth masks declining economic profits.
  • Danger Zone: Small-Cap Blend Investors
    Tue, Aug. 12 AHL, FYT, IESM Comment!

    Summary

    • I continue to believe that small caps are overvalued compared to large caps.
    • Small Cap Blend investors land in the Danger Zone due to their allocation to the worst ETFs in the style.
    • There is still value to be found in Small Cap Blend stocks and funds, but it takes diligence.
  • How To Find The Best Sector ETFs
    Mon, Aug. 11 FENY, FXN, IHI 1 Comment

    Summary

    • With so many ETFs to choose from, finding the best can be a daunting task.
    • You cannot trust ETF labels, only due diligence on the holdings allows an investor to understand an ETF.
    • Low costs and quality holdings, not past performance, is the best indicator of an ETF's future success.
  • Cheap Funds Dupe Investors - Q3 2014
    Fri, Aug. 8 D, ED, FUTY 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Comparison of AUM in funds with attractive holdings versus attractive costs.
    • Distribution of ETFs and Mutual Funds by Predictive Rating and our two component ratings.
    • Commentary on the shortcomings of traditional ETF and Mutual Fund research.
  • Do Microsoft Bulls Have A Convincing Case?
    Wed, Aug. 6 MSFT 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Microsoft's return on invested capital has been steadily declining since 2007,.
    • Despite apparent earnings growth in 2014, Microsoft's core operating profitability continues to decline.
    • If Satya Nadella's restructuring initiatives can stabilize Microsoft's falling ROIC, the stock is a great value at this price.
  • The Long Overdue Crash In Whole Foods
    Tue, Aug. 5 WFM 31 Comments

    Summary

    • Whole Foods stock has crashed over the past year, but the warning signs that it was overvalued have been clear since 2010.
    • Those who bought Whole Foods in 2010 or earlier have done well. Those who bought more recently have dramatically underperformed.
    • Momentum strategies can work for a time, but the short-term gains always carry a big threat of long-term risk.
  • Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds, And Key Holdings: Large Cap Growth Style
    Fri, Aug. 1 ADBE, ALFA, JNJ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Lists of the best and worst ETFs and mutual funds in the large cap growth style.
    • Distribution of all large cap growth style ETFs and mutual funds across our predictive rating scale.
    • Ratings are based on rigorous analysis of the profitability and valuation of each fund's holdings.
    • Our rating system is forward-looking and does not rely on past performance.
  • Zillow's Offer For Trulia Is A Hail Mary
    Thu, Jul. 31 Z, TRLA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has reacted enthusiastically to Zillow's potential acquisition of Trulia.
    • Lost in the enthusiasm are the significant risks that this acquisition brings.
    • With the added share dilution from this acquisition, it will take extraordinary profit growth for Zillow to justify its valuation.
  • Danger Zone: First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX Fund ETF
    Wed, Jul. 30 FXU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Analysis of a fund's holdings is crucial to predicting the future performance of a fund.
    • Funds that look good on traditional backward-looking rating systems can actually be at high risk to blow up.
    • First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX Fund ETF looks especially dangerous.
  • Danger Zone: NCR Corporation
    Wed, Jul. 30 NCR 15 Comments

    Summary

    • NCR Corporation faces threats to its business model from online commerce and banking.
    • Acquisitions are increasing liabilities without fixing NCR's core problems.
    • NCR's valuation implies an unrealistic amount of growth.
  • 10 Stocks To Look At If The Market Crashes
    Mon, Jul. 28 GPS, HSY, SNI 11 Comments

    Summary

    • A market crash in the near future looks increasingly plausible.
    • As long as investors have some cash on the sidelines, a crash can be a great opportunity for investors to buy great companies at cheap prices.
    • The following 10 companies should be investors' watchlists if the price gets right.